Craig Davis
30 Dime - TEMPLE (Buy the 1/2 point)
15 Dime - WARRIORS
10 Dime - ROCKETS
TEMPLE OWLS (be sure to buy the 1/2 point whether your number is -4 1/2, -4, -3 1/2 or -3 as these are all key numbers in college football) --- This game is going to come down to one thing and one thing only... Temple's running game. Freshman RB Bernard Pierce is one of the best RBs in college football that no one's talking about, and I'm here to tell you this guy is the real deal. Pierce already has 1211 yards rushing, not to mention his 14 TDs. He has surpassed 175 yards on the ground in each of his last three games to go along with 8 rushing TDs... so it appears he's getting stronger as the season goes on. Pierce is a unique runner who can not only run effectively outside the tackles but he's also not afraid to get his hands dirty and bust a few right up the middle. Pierce is running like a senior at just 19 years old and is honestly the sole reason this team is 7-2, including seven straight wins.
As for Akron... well, they're awful. In every facet of the word "awful", they're awful. They don't run it well (just 3.2 yards per carry), they don't throw it well (having already used three QBs this year) and don't really play very good defense. It's not surprising the Zips are just 2-7 on the year... and one of those wins was against lowly Morgan State. They're only other win, coming last week, was in conference against Kent State --- but if you look at their record you can see that win should have been expected. Kent State's record is a bit misleading as they are seriously on about the same level as Akron, despite their 4-2 conference record.
The number that stood out to me was the horrendous run defense that Akron rolls out there each week. The Zips surrender the exact same number of yards on the ground per game as the Owls average on offense. So I think it's safe to say Temple, with Pierce, will clearly have their way with this Akron defense. They'll control the tempo, chew up the clock, and likely win the battle of field position. This might not be as exciting as West Virginia/Cincy in terms of entertainment value, but it's the best bet on the board... you can be sure of that. Like I said, Temple has won 7 straight games after dropping their first two of the season, having covered ALL FOUR of their roadies in 2009. The Owls have covered 7 of their last 9 lined games overall while Akron is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games. The Owls are also 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 conference games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 when coming in off an ATS loss, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 when allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Temple wins and covers rather easily tonight.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - Just curious... who are the NY Knicks to be laying points to anyone right now? Okay, I realize the Warriors really don't appear to be all that much better right now, but I've seen both of these teams play and I'm telling you, the Knicks might be one of the worst two or three teams in basketball. They don't defend, they don't shoot well, they don't rebound... really the only thing they can hang their hat on is their free throw shooting (over 80% per game). And when it comes right down to it, we have two perceived, high-powered offenses doing battle... and one of them shoots the 3 exceptionally well --- the other one doesn't. Golden State hits nearly 41% of their shots from behind the arc while New York is hitting at a 29% clip. Like I said, when neither team plays defense and one of them clearly shoots better from the field and from the three-point arc, you have to side with the better shooting team, don't you? Yes, I understand that the Warriors likely can't keep up this 41% shooting from downtown all season, but right now they are hot from out there and until that stops, it's hard not to back them when they're getting points... especially when facing a team that doesn't play a lick of defense. Take the points and enjoy the win.
HOUSTON ROCKETS - Like I mentioned already a few times this year... the Sacramento Kings are a bad basketball team, but the fact that they've already won four games gives us tremendous line value in this one. But honestly, who have the Kings beaten this year? OKC, Memphis, Golden State and Utah. Admittedly, the Utah win was a bit surprising, but it's not like the Jazz are playing good basketball right now either. Houston is clearly the superior team, even without Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest, and should make quick work against a less-experienced Kings starting five. Sacto will also be without their best player, G Kevin Martin, who is still dealing with broken bones in his shooting wrist. Don't get me wrong... Sacramento has clearly surprised me to this point in the season and they are fun to watch because they like to push the tempo, but they just don't have that one, go to player, with Martin on the bench, that can be counted on when the game is on the line. My thought here is... Houston is deeper, a little more experienced, and better defenders... and in the end they will use that defense to clamp down on the Kings in the fourth quarter en route to a fairly easy 10-point win on the road.
ANTHONY REDD
20-Dime West Virginia
20-Dime Hawks
20-Dime Akron
Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS
20 DIMER - WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
The longer a team remains unbeaten, the bigger the bullseye on their back becomes, and the bigger the number they are asked to cover.
That is the case tonight with the Bearcats, as this line is a few points too high.
I am taking the Mountaineers plus the points as I fully expect another close game in this series. The last 2 meetings have seen the visitor win outright, as West Virginia won by 5 at Cincinnati in 2007, while Cincy won by 3 last season in Morgantown.
Both Jarrett Brown, and Noel Devine are listed as probable for the Mountaineers, while Tony Pike is now listed as probable for Cincinnati, and that is where red-flag number one arises for Brian Kelly's team!
Zach Collaros has been brilliant filling in for the injured Pike, so what do you do as far as getting Pike into the game?
What about the fact that this is still a young Bearcats team that nearly choked the outright last week versus Connecticut?
And finally, what about the fact that Brian Kelly's name is now being talked about for the Notre Dame head coaching gig?
Distractions, distractions.
Pressure, pressure.
The Mountaineers can make a big jump with the win tonight, but I will settle for the cover.
Take the points!
10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS
When last these 2 teams met, the Lakers eliminated the Nuggets in 6 games and went on to capture the NBA Championship.
Denver has been itching to get some payback, and tonight looks like the night, as the Lakers were in action last night at home in a romp of Phoenix, and now must go into the thin air and battle Denver for a 48-minute session.
Denver had the night off after a grueling 6 game road trek, and they are a positive 9-3 against the spread their last 12 at home.
LA is 0-1 ATS when playing in back-to-back situations, make that 0-2 after tonight.
Take the Nuggs.
Unlocked Sports
4* Calgary/Buffalo UNDER 5.5
Billy Coleman
4* Mississippi
Wunderdog
Anaheim at Columbus
4 units Anaheim -110
The Columbus Blue Jackets must regroup from their most humiliating loss - a 9-1 setback at the hands of the Detroit Red Wings. The bigger issue that was emphasized in that one was the shoddy goaltending and lack of defense. After a 5-1 start, the Jackets have allowed an amazing 51 goals in their last 11 games, nearly five per contest. That will make the task at hand difficult against a Duck's team that has found the net 28 times in the last eight games, or averaging 3.5 per. The Blue Jackets have not rebounded well off a big loss as they are now 1-7 off a loss by three goals or more. Anaheim gets this one.
New York Islanders at Carolina
3 units OVER 5.5
The Carolina Hurricanes stand at a surprising 2-12-3 to start the season - their worst start in franchise history including their days as the Hartford Whalers. One quick-to-see reason is the fact that they have allowed a minimum of three goals in each of their last 10 games. That is simply something you don't see in this era of the NHL. When you add into the equation that the NY Islanders have allowed three or more goals in 13 of 18, we have the makings of a shootout here. This is especially true when considering that on the road, those Islanders’ stats of 3+ becomes eight out of nine games. History may be ready to repeat itself tonight as these two clubs have produced an OVER in each of the last six meetings. OVER gets the call in this one.
Los Angeles at Atlanta
4 units Los Angeles -110
The Atlanta Thrashers have spent a lot of time on the road. They haven't been home enough to gain any semblance of a home ice advantage. They have won just twice here all season, and have won here just once in their last five and it took a shootout to accomplish that. The goaltending has been suspect allowing four goals or more in six of their last nine games, making it hard to win. Los Angeles has been winning on the road to the tune of a 6-4-1 mark, and has been a perfect 4-0 against teams that are .400 or less at home. The Thrashers’ next problem is playing on consecutive nights where they have been a poor 10-26 in their last 36 on the back end. I'll go with the Kings in this one.
Calgary at Buffalo
4 units Buffalo -130
Calgary and Buffalo have opened as two of the top teams in the NHL this season. The Flames have won four straight and getting great goaltending, but the offense has really been nonexistent with just 12 goals in the last six games. The Sabres have tallied 25 in their last seven at home, and should be able to crack the net enough in this one to get the win. The Flames have flamed out as a dog, where they are just 7-20 in their last 27 as a dog of +110 to +150. They have also struggled against top teams on the road, where they are 18-44 against a home team with a .600 winning percentage or higher on home ice. The Sabres are 9-2 after allowing two or fewer goals last time out. The Sabres take this one.
Pure Lock
Sacramento +4
South Florida -1.5
SAMMY JANKUS
Reverse Barometer
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
Portland at New Orleans
4* NEW ORLEANS +2
Okay, let me get this straight. New Orleans, a miserable 3-6 so far in 2009, just fired their head coach and replaced him with the freakin’ GENERAL MANAGER. And now the Hornets have to take on one of the HOTTEST teams in the NBA, Portland, with only 2 points from the linemaker! The Blazers have roared to four straight EASY WINS, the last a 23-point demolition of Minnesota on the T’Wolves’ home court. I’m convinced the visitors will turn the Big Easy into the Big Sleazy by VIOLATING the hosts in a blowout win– so your play (and I feel guilty doing this to you) is on NEW ORLEANS.
Bob Balfe
Sixers +1.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
West Virginia vs Cincinnati
Play: West Virginia +9
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the visitors.
WVU’s defense stepped it up against Louisville last week and did not allow a TD; last year WVU was as good as anyone controlling the Bearcats last year, giving up only 26 points, including overtime, with one of the Cincinnati TD's coming on a kickoff return.
Not only is West Virginia 5-1 SU its last six, dating back the last three seasons its 18-7 SU its last 25 on the road.
On the other side of the field: Zach Collaros and Tony Pike will both see time in this game.
Each QB has proved he can effectively run the Bearcats’ spread, no-huddle offense, which ranks third nationally with 482.6 yards per game.
However, Cincinnati’s defense is still smarting from the second half against UConn last week, during which the Huskies burned them for 322 yards. Most disconcerting for UC was the 201 rushing yards allowed, including 162 and four TDs from Jordan Todman.
Bottom line: I believe the defensive struggles against the run will once again be a problem tonight for Cincinnati as they face one of the top backs in the nation in Noel Devine; Devine ranks 13th nationally with more than 112 yards per game and look for him, or Jock Sanders to have a strong game as the Mountaineers focus on establishing the run in this one.
Look for West Virginia to improve to 1-1 ATS this season as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points while Cincinnati falls to a horrible 1-3 ATS its last four at Nippert Stadium! 9* West Virginia
Ron Raymond
Anaheim vs Columbus
Play: Columbus -115
Garon expected to get the nod this evening vs. the Ducks and this could be the change of pace needed for the Blue Jackets after that 9-1 beating by the Red Wings. Plus, I did some research with my ATS NHL Database and when a home favorite lost by 8 goals or more in their last game; they are 9-4 SU in the next game since 1996. Take the Blue Jackets.
Tony George
West Virginia vs Cincinnati
Play: West Virginia +9.5
Count the Yards that Cincy gave up to U Conn...WOW.. Short on time, but UWV will score points and make this one interesting. The Noose gets tighter as Cincy has a lot of pressure on this game, UWV will play loose and throw the kitchen sink at them.
Play 1 Unit on West Virginia +9.5
Marc Lawrence
West Virginia vs Cincinnati
Play: West Virginia +9.5
The Mountaineers take on the Bearcats in Cincinnati in a key battle in the Big East Friday night. Aside from the visitor owning a 5-0-2 ATS series mark, the Mountaineers are a spotless 6-0 ATS as conference dogs of 6 or more points. Since the 2002 season, West Virginia is 40-11 SU in Big East play, with only four of those losses coming by double-digits. Inside those numbers is a 20-6 SU and ATS road mark, including 9-1 ATS when taking points. On the flip side our database tells us that undefeated favorites of more than 8 points, off four SU and ATS wins are just 16-29 ATS, including 9-21 ATS off a win of 19 or more points. With the pressure squarely on the Bearcats, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on West Virginia.
Rocketman
Dallas vs Minnesota
Play: Dallas -11
Minnesota will be without their leading scorer Al Jefferson for this game. Dallas is 11-3 ATS last 3 years after scoring 85 points or less. Minnesota is 30-55 ATS at home the past 3 years. Dallas is scoring 101.7 points per game overall this year. Minnesota is scoring only 85.6 points per game at home this year and allowing 106.4 points per game overall this season. Dallas is 17-7 ATS at Minnesota since 1996. Dallas is 4-0 SU and ATS at Minnesota past 3 years. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Mavericks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss. Mavericks are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss. Timberwolves are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. Timberwolves are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 Friday games. Timberwolves are 21-49 ATS in their last 70 games as a home underdog. Timberwolves are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. Road team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings. We'll play Dallas for 3 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
Atlanta vs Boston
Play: Boston -8.5
The Celtics started out of the gate strong this year by winning their first three games by an average of over 20 PPG. However, they would go on to fail to cover in four of their next five (4-1 SU), but as we noted in Wednesday's 15* Non-Conference Game of the Week writeup, three days of rest would do them some good and sure enough they blew out the Jazz 105-86. Looking back at the last two seasons, fast starts are nothing new for the Celtics, who won 29 of their first 32 games in 2007-08 and 27 of their first 29 games last year. In their first four wins this season, they held opponents to 81 PPG and 39% shooting. Once again, they lead the league in defense (84.6 PPG). Now they face an Atlanta team they have historically dominated at home. Over the last three years, the Hawks are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in Beantown and the team is also 0-8 ATS after playing consecutive games where 205+ points were scored. Take Boston.