Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, November 19,2010

Ben Burns

10* Fresno St.

There is no denying that the Broncos are a powerful team, particularly here on their blue turf. Indeed, they've outscored opponents by an average of 46.2 to 16.2 in going undefeated here this season. Tonight's opponent is a lot more talented than the majority of the other teams that the Broncos have been beating up on recently. That said, I believe this line is too high. The Bulldogs lost their last game. That was by just a single point vs. a potent Nevada team though. Speaking of the Wolfpack, note that Boise plays at Nevada next week. As the Broncos have had that game circled, as this season's one possible stumbling block, it may be pretty easy to look past Frenso here, particularly considering that they've (mostly) handled the Broncos with ease over the years. (Fresno did win 27-7 in 2005.) Speaking of Nevada, the Bulldogs very nearly beat the Wolfpack last week. They were winning in the fourth quarter and lost by a score of 35-34. While that was certainly a tough loss, it also showed that the Bulldogs are capable of trading punches with a high-scoring team - there were seven lead changes in that game. Granted, a home game against Nevada is a whole different story from a game on the blue turf, against this Bronco team. However, my point is that Fresno has been playing at a high level and should have confidence to believe it can compete. Prior to that, the Bulldogs had won three straight, outscoring opponents by a 106-62 margin. Two of those wins came on the road. While the Boise run defense is admittedly very good, Fresno's Robbie Rouse has rushed for more than 500 yards the past two weeks alone. By keeping the clock moving, the Fresno ground game should help lessen the amount of time that Kellen Moore and the Boise offense spends on the field. Speaking of Moore, he'll be up against a Fresno State defense which is holding opponents to 193.9 passing yards per game. In the WAC, only Boise allows less. The Broncos are currently giving up 165.9. The Bulldogs, who lost by 17 vs. Boise last season, are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs of greater than three touchdowns. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight, giving their hosts a tougher game than most are expecting and hanging within the inflated number.

10* Sacramento

The Kings could badly use a victory and tonight should provide an excellent opportunity to earn one. These teams already faced each other a few weeks ago. The Kings were in great shape to win that game, as they were up by eight points with less than four minutes to play. However, the Nets outscored them 17-3 down the stretch, en route to a 106-100 victory. That was at New Jersey though. Tonight's game is at Sacramento, where the Kings have been much better for years. Admittedly, the Nets have been better defensively than the Kings. Note that the Nets are just 22-56 SU and 31-46-1 ATS the past seasons when matched up against a team which allows 99 or more per game. The Kings have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. They average more than 100 points per game while New Jersey averages only 92.8. The Nets are playing their third straight road game and play at Denver tomorrow. Note that they're already 0-2 when playing the front end of back to back games so far this season. The Kings also lost at New Jersey last season - not many teams did. However, they won by double-digits when the teams played here at Sacramento. That brought them to 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were a host in this series. Desperate for a victory and playing with revenge for last month's setback, I expect them to continue that homecourt series dominance this evening.

8* Los Angeles / Buffalo Under

The Kings have allowed a whopping 11 goals in their last two games and they've seen three straight games finish above the number. I expect a major emphasis on improved defensive play tonight. LA coach Terry Murray was quoted as saying: "We don¡¦t like the way we¡¦ve played here now in the last couple of games. A couple of those goals look pretty easy for them, and that's really out of character for us." Murray went on to say: "We'll have to just tighten things up as we head out on the road..." Keep in mind that the 11 goals that the Kings allowed in those two games were as many as they allowed in their previous eight games combined. In their previous five games, they'd allowed only four combined goals. For the season, they're still only allowing 2.3 per game. Ten of their 17 games have fallen below the total. Looking at some O/U stats and we find the UNDER at 29-19 the past 2+ seasons when the Kings were off a loss by two goals or more. During that stretch, the UNDER was also 12-5 when they were off three or more consecutive games which finished above the total and 47-31 when they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Sabres are off three straight games against "high-scoring teams" - two against Washington and one against Vancouver. They've still seen the UNDER go 4-2-1 their last seven though. With Miller and Quick likely to get the call, the goaltending matchup should be a good one. Quick currently ranks among the league's best goalies with a stellar 1.73 goals-against average. Not only is he off to the best start (10-2-0) by a goalie in Kings history, but he's also 2-0-0 with a 2.40 GAA in two starts against the Sabres. Of course, Miller is hardly a "slouch." The reigning Vezina Trophy winner is 2-1-0 with a superb 1.67 GAA in three home starts vs. the Kings. While I expect the Sabres to get strong goaltending, they still only average 2.2 goals per game at home. Facing an LA team determined to "tighten things up," I expect a relatively low-scoring affair.

7* Washington / Atlanta Under

These teams have already met three times this season. The first meeting was here at Altanta. It had an O/U line of 6.5. The final score of 4-2 stayed below the total. Based on that result, the next two games, which were both at Washington, had O/U lines of six. As both of those games were high-scoring, we're now again seeing an O/U of 6.5. With all due respect to the Capitals offense, I believe that's a little too high. The Caps have seen the UNDER go 6-2 on the road this season and that includes a perfect 4-0 mark when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or greater. Their road games are averaging "only" 5.5 combined goals. While they've been a profitable 'over' team thus far, the Thrashers are off a 2-1 loss to Florida. Including that result, they've now seen four of their last five home games produce six or fewer combined goals. Including the earlier result, the UNDER is 9-5 the last 14 times that the Thrashers were a host in this series. I expect those stats to improve here