BIG AL
Rockets
Jazz
Kings
Helmut
West Virginia Over 140.5
Old Dominion -11.5
Adding
Portland/Kentucky Over 145
Jeff Benton
20 Dime Boise St
10 Dime Milwaukee Bucks
BOISE STATE
Nobody loves Fresno State coach Pat Hill more than me, and in any other situation in any other venue against pretty much any other opponent, if you gave me 30 points with Hill’s Bulldogs, I’d back up the Brinks truck and unload on Fresno State. But not tonight, not against Boise State, not on the Blue Turf.
With last week’s 52-14 rout at Idaho as a 34 ½-point road favorite, Boise State not only improved to 9-0 SU but 7-2 ATS. The Broncos have won their last six games by a combined score of 307-55, going 5-1 ATS over this stretch. The only two occasions in which Boise State did not cover this season: A 37-24 victory over Oregon State as a 17½-point favorite and a 49-20 victory over Louisiana Tech as a 35½-point favorite.
You know what that means? Had Boise State scored one more or allowed one fewer touchdown in each of those two contests, it would be PERFECT against the number this season despite laying incredibly inflated prices each and every week since the season-opener against Virginia Tech. That tells me Boise State coach Chris Petersen – though he’d never admit it – is very cognizant of the pointspread and he’s trying to beat it as it’s the only thing he can do to impress poll voters and influence computers. I have proof of this, too: Last week at Idaho, the Broncos were comfortably ahead 52-14 in the final two minutes when Idaho moved the ball against Boise’s backups deep into Broncos territory. What did Petersen do? Yanked his second- and third-string defenders and reinserted his starters to squash the drive and preserve the spread-cover.
Now – as was the case last week, and I said as much when I backed Boise – the Broncos aren’t laying a true number tonight. If Boise wasn’t 9-0 and costing sports books in Vegas thousands every time they take the field, this line would be closer to 24, maybe even a little less. Again, though, I’m willing to pay the “Boise tax” because nobody’s been able to slow this team down (the Broncos average 47.6 points and 530.2 yards per game). And outside of Virginia Tech (30 points) and Oregon State (24), nobody’s been able to do anything against the Boise defense (even with those two games, the Broncs are yielding just 12.8 points and 240.8 yards per game).
Granted, Fresno’s offensive states suggest the Bulldogs will at least test Boise’s defense. The Bulldogs average 34.7 points per contest and have scored at least 27 in every game this season, tallying 33 or more in the last four in a row and seven of the last eight. Pretty impressive … until your realize Fresno hasn’t faced a defense that’s remotely close to as gifted as Boise’s.
More importantly, when challenged against an explosive offense this year, Fresno’s defense has failed time and time again. The Bulldogs gave up 55 points at Ole Miss, 49 points to Hawaii, 34 points at Louisiana Tech and 35 points to Nevada (the latter two games played in the last two weeks).
Finally, it’s impossible to ignore the history of this rivalry. Boise State is 8-1 SU and ATS against the Bulldogs in nine consecutive meetings since 2001; the SU winner has covered the spread in each of those nine contests; and in Fresno’s four trips to the Smurf Turf over this stretch, they’re 0-4 SU and ATS with losses of 61-10, 45-21, 33-16 and 67-21 – not a competitive game in the bunch. And believe me when I tell you, in none of those four contests was Boise State as complete a team as it is this season or playing for a spot in the national championship game.
Much as I love Hill and Fresno State, the fact is the Bulldogs have allowed an average of 46.3 ppg in their three losses, and baring uncharacteristic Boise State turnovers, Fresno just don’t stand a chance tonight. Boise rolls 63-24.
BUCKS
Can’t trust the 76ers at all right now. Philly has just two wins in 12 games this season, losing the last five in a row while going 0-3-1 ATS in the last four. And since a five-game stretch in which they put up 115, 101, 116, 106 and 103 points, the Sixers’ offense has gone stone cold, netting 90, 93, 93 and 86 points in the last four.
Now Philadelphia runs up against the third-best defensive team in the NBA. Milwaukee is allowing just 92 ppg, and even that number is a bit misleading because if you eliminate two games against the Lakers (118 points allowed) and Celtics (105 points allowed in an overtime contest), the Bucks are surrendering just 87.7 points in nine other contests, with all nine opponents being held to 96 points or less.
Milwaukee is somewhat disappointing at just 5-6 SU and 5-5-1 ATS. However, the Bucks only have one “bad” loss on their ledger (a 96-85 setback at Minnesota in the second game of the season). Other than that, they’ve lost to the Hornets twice (by a total of 10 points), Celtics (by three points in overtime) and Lakers (118-107 on Wednesday).
The Bucks remain an NBA pointspread go-to team, cashing at clips of 40-19-3 overall, 22-7-1 on the road and 16-4-2 against the Atlantic Division. On the other hand, the Sixers have failed to cover in 35 of their last 51 home games and 26 of 38 against Eastern Conference foes.
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Miami Under 190.5
New Jersey +3.5
Dr. Bob
NBA Opinion
BOSTON (-8) over Oklahoma City
Boston applies to a very good 57-5-1 ATS momentum situation but the Celtics have been bad as a favorite of 7 points or more (14-42-1 ATS). My ratings favor Boston by 10 points and the general situation is stronger than the team trend, so I’ll lean with the Celtics.
Friday College Opinion
Cleveland State (-4 ½) over UL LAFAYETTE
Cleveland State returns all 5 starters from last year’s team and the Vikings are certainly improved. The same probably cannot be said of UL Lafayette, who will have a tough time being better without the services of do everything F Tyren Johnson, who averaged 17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.5 blocks and led the team in assists. Cleveland State applies to a 16-0 ATS subset of a 66-22-4 ATS situation but the line on this game has gone from an opening number of -2 points up to -4 ½ and -5 points and my ratings favor the Vikings by 4 points. I’m not going to chase the points, but the situation is still good enough for me to lean with Cleveland State at -5 or less. I would take Cleveland State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
MTi Sports
4* Cavs
4* Mavs Under
4* Cavs Under
3* Bucks Over
Craig Davis
Fresno
Cleveland State
Celtics Over
Wayne Root
Billionaire - Fairfield
Millionaire - Lamar
CHUCK O'BRIEN
25 DIME Boise St -30.5
AL DEMARCO
5 DIME New Orleans Hornets
BRETT ATKINS
25 DIME Minnesota Timebrwolves
DEREK MANCINI
10 DIME Philadelphia 76ers
JOEL TYSON
20 DIME NO Hornets
MATT RIVERS
150,000* Pittsburgh Panthers
75,000* NC Tarheels
Lenny Del Genio
Miami -12
Big spread for the Heat tonight at home vs. division rival Charlotte, but that's the way this team likes it. Taking a quick glance at the NBA standings may reveal that Miami comes in with a very pedestrian 7-4 SU mark, but they also own the NBA's best point differential at +11.2 PPG. We cashed them earlier in the year as huge 16.5-point chalk against the sorry Minnesota T'wolves. On Wednesday, the team snapped it's five-game ATS losing skid with a sound 27-point thumping of Phoenix as Chris Bosh finally had a good game. Meanwhile, Charlotte, who made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season, has two problems this year. One, which we have spoken of before, is a major downgrade at the PG position from Raymond Felton (Knicks) to DJ Augustin. This has made wingmen Jackson and Wallace far less effective. The Bobcats' other issue is scoring. After scoring 101 points in their second game of the season, they would go on to average just barely over 90 PPG over their next six. They've scored more than 95 points just three times all season, one of them coming in their last game (113-110 over Minnesota), but that kind of production is not going to get it done here. Take Miami.
Rocketman
5* Buffalo
KELSO
50 UNITS FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS +30.5
25 UNITS BOSTON CELTICS -8.5
10 UNITS CHICAGO ILLINOIS FLAMES -6
5 UNITS NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS -6
3 UNITS NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN +20.5
Larry Ness
9* Late-Breaking Play - North Carolina -6.5
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge doesn't start until next week but we get Minnesota and No. 8 North Carolina right here in Puerto Rico on Friday night. These early-season tourneys are 'old hat' for the Tar Heels, who are trying to reach the finals of an in-season tournament for the fourth straight year. Roy Williams knew his team was overrated in the early going last year but still the team's struggles didn't sit well with him. The good news was that North Carolina missed the "Big Dance" and was able to get some postseason games under its belt in the NIT, actually making it all the way to the championship game, where the Tar Heels lost to Dayton. Ed Davis turned pro as expected but the 6-10 Henson, expected to be a one-and done guy, is back after a disappointing year. Henson is off to a strong start, averaging 11.0-14.0 in two games. The frontcourt is formidable, with a healthy 7-0 Zeller (13.0-7.5) plus 6-7 freshman Barnes (16.5-5.5). Larry Drew II was much-maligned last year but let's give him some time. Strickland returns to start with Drew plus Carolina has great depth in the backcourt. Returning players are McDonald (1.5) and Watts (6.5), joined by freshman Bullock (9.0) and Marshall (6.5). McDonald and Watts combined for 29 points off the bench in last night's 107-63 rout of Hofstra plus that starting frontcourt trio (despite not playing much in the second half) combined for 42 points and 25 rebounds. Tubby Smith of Minnesota takes a back seat to few on the coaching sidelines, entering this year off his 17th straight 20-win season in a row. Westbrook (12.8) will be missed this year in the backcourt and Tubby suspended one of three key returning guards, Joseph (9.4). The combo of Hoffarber (11.3) and Nolen (9.0) is solid but Minnesota has nowhere near the depth that North Carolina has on the perimeter. The 6-11 Sampson (18.3-9.0-4.0 BPG) may not be his father but he's player. However, the 6-10 Iverson (6.0-4.7) is off to a slow start, averaging only 15 MPG. Good news has been provided by 6-8 JC transfer Mbakwe (14.0-10.3) and the emergence of 6-7 sophomore swingman Williams (10.3). These two high-scoring squads but Carolina does it better and has more depth (Minnesota finds out soon, this a NOT Western Ky!). Expect the UNC starters to stick around a little more than they did vs Hofstra and by game's end, Tubby's team will be saying "uncle."
Payne Sports
Bama +2.5
Fresno +30
Knicks +3.5