Rocketman
3* West Virginia +3
3* Southern Mississippi +3.5
Wunderdog
3 Units Louisville -3
This one kicks off before the Thanksgiving Turkey is fully digested, as Louisville heads to Rutgers for an 11 AM kickoff. The Scarlett Knights have struggled offensively all season, but relied on a solid stop unit to keep them in games. The Rutgers defense is worn out as an inept offense keeps them on the field for long stretches. The result has been a defense that has aged quickly. They allowed just 48 points in their first four games but 195 in their last six. That's a drop from 12 ppg to 32.5 ppg. Louisville has been strong defensively all season, and since the start of Big East play this season, they have allowed a total of 116 points in the six games (just 19.3 ppg). The Cards have had a lot of success after a poor offensive production of 275 yards or less in their last game, coming back and going 10-1 ATS in their next tilt. The Scarlett Knights are not covering much of anything lately at 2-8 ATS in their last 10. Louisville in this one.
3 Units on Ohio -3.5
The Golden Flashes are a team that has really struggled to find the scoreboard, but they have managed to stay in games with a tough defense. Like many other one-sided teams, as the season winds down, the better side of the ball (defense in this case) begins to wear down, and that is exactly what is happening at Kent State. The Flashes allowed less than 20 ppg through their first eight games, but in their last three the defense sprung a leak, allowing 37 ppg. That spells trouble against one of the MAC's most competent and consistent offenses. The Bobcats have topped the 30 mark in seven straight games. With no answers on offense, and a failing defense, Kent is in trouble here. Ohio is 12-3 ATS the past two sesaons when coming off a win and 9-2 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins. They are also 13-4 ATS the past three seasons on the road. Meanwhile, Kent State is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring single digits. Ohio here.
4 Units Nevada +14
Boise State was my preseason pick for the National Champion. They still have a shot and haven't dissapointed this season. They have cleared all obstacles and looked unbeatable against Fresno State last week in a 51-0 domination. They have one last major obstacle to clear, and then await their fate for a possible national championship opportunity. This one won't be easy. The Wolfpack have a big-time offense, and last year in Boise gave the Broncos fits, before losing by just 11. Nevada is 10-1 for a reason. They have enough balance and enough weapons to match scores for the most part with the Broncos, especially at home. I expect this one to play out a lot like last year with Nevada staying within arms length at home and a break or two their way. Under Chris Ault, the Wolfpack are 26-13 ATS at home including 13-5 ATS after a home ATS win. I think Nevada can hang within two touchdowns.
DAVID MALINSKY
4* N ILLINOIS / E MICHIGAN UNDER 60.5
Nobody wants a fast pace here. For Jerry Kill and Northern Illinois it is simply a week to take care of business before heading to Detroit to play in the MAC Championship next Friday, while for Ron English the only chance his team has to compete is to reduce the possessions as much as possible. And with the current forecast calling for a kickoff temperature in the high 20’s, with a strong wind, the conditions do not create an atmosphere for speeding anything up. But the fact that some misleading results create such a high line leaves all of those factors available for us to get in play.
The Huskies are off of back-to-back games that scored out to 95 and 80. That creates the impression of huge offensive explosions at a fast tempo, but that was not the case at all. Two games back there were only 124 offensive snaps in the Northern Illinois/Toledo game, and a 28-0 at halftime turned into a bizarre second stanza that saw 67 points hit the board. Last week there were only 119 offensive snaps as Northern whipped Ball State 59-21. In each game the offenses absolutely maximized everything available, while there were also three TD’s from the defenses or special teams. Of particular note are the 51 points that a good Husky defense allowed – they only gave up 30 first downs and 648 total yards, which would usually lead to a much lower scoreboard allowance, and only seven of those points came in the first half.
So those scores help to create the value, and the game flow takes care of the rest. Kill would like to get a good scrimmage for his starters, and not much more, so they establish their ground game to take early control. And while they will have success against a soft Eastern Mich defense, the Eagles did have their bye three weeks ago, so they are not as gassed as usual for the final game, especially bringing some confidence and energy off of that win at Buffalo last week. Meanwhile they can also hang around early by running the ball themselves, which became a major focus during that bye week. Since then it has been 110 runs vs. only 45 passes, with QB Alex Gillett having his career high of 159 rushing yards two weeks ago, and then Dwayne Priest having his career best of 192 in that win at Buffalo. Since the wind and cold makes passing difficult anyway we do not need to fear many big plays in the air, and we do not believe this underdog opens things up to try to challenge through the back door – at the end of a long season, English will not mind seeing the clock run.
Triple Threat Sports
2* Penn State (+) over Mississippi
Our Power Ratings on this game show Ole Miss winning by three points, and they are laying double that in this one. The Talor Battle - who will be the best player on this court today - led Nittany Lions are a veteran team now and that should help them get more road wins, as in the past this has been a team that tended to play teams tight, only to end up losing close games. Of course that type of play makes a team an attractive dog, and it is not an accident that the Lions are 3-0 ATS on the road against fellow major non conference foes the last three years, with two (Ga Tech, 2008) and three (Temple, last year) point losses of late. Penn State represents the highest rated foe for the Rebels so far this year and UM lost outright against the next highest rated team (Dayton) who we feel PSU is two points better than. Take the points here.
Marty Otto
20* Toledo
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Arizona
Billionaire - Alabama
No Limit - Nevada
Northcoast
4* Colorado
3* Nevada
Marquee - Tulsa
Small College - Toledo
Totals
Rutgers Under
Arizona Over
Mike Neri
4* Western Michigan -6.5
3* Boise St -14
Al DeMarco
Ohio
Oregon
Bob Balfe
UCLA +13
Oregon/Arizona Over 63
Rutgers -1.5
Nevada +14.5
Oklahoma City -1
Don Wallace Sports
3* Ohio State -17
3* Alabama -4
3* Western Michigan -7
3* Toledo -4
3* Utah +1.5
3* Memphis -7
3* Portland -3.5
Dwayne Bryant
Alabama
Nevada
Purelock
Southern Miss +3.5
Ben Burns
Akron -1
Oregon/Arizona Under
Nevada +14.5
Portland Trailblazers -3
Detroit Under
Washington
Minnesota
RAS
William & Mary -10.5
UCLA -1