ETHAN LAW
Manahattan Syndicate Play
Louisville Cardinals +4½
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Pittsburgh Pk over W. Virginia
3* Alabama/Auburn UNDER 47
3* Colorado +10.5 over Nebraska
Joey Torelli
4* New York / Denver Under 219
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
Nebraska (-10.0) 27 COLORADO 7
I'll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars from -10 1/2 to -13 points.
Strong Opinion
OHIO 24 Temple (-3.0) 21
Temple has won 9 consecutive games since opening the season with losses to Villanova and Penn State, but Ohio is the best MAC team that the Owls will face this season. This game will actually determine the MAC East champion, as the Bobcats have just 1 loss in conference play and would obviously win the tie-breaker if they win this game.
My math model favors Temple by 3 1/2 points with Chester Stewart at quarterback (he's been an upgrade over former starter Vaughn Charlton so far), but the situation strongly favors the Bobcats. Home underdogs on a winning streak tend to play with confidence and Ohio applies to a very good 63-14-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation tonight. I realize that betting against a team that has won 9 games in a row might be a bit scary, but road teams that have won 7 or more consecutive games are actually only 44% ATS the last 30 years in college football and the chance of a cover is even less likely if the opponents is playing well. In fact, road teams on a 7 game or more win streak are just 88-122-3 ATS if the opponent is off a win. If the home team has revenge, which Ohio does, then the record for the road team is just 57-94-2 ATS. The record is just 34-68-1 ATS if the home team is 2 or more games above .500 straight up, which Ohio is at 8-3, so there is no reason to fear betting against a team on a long winning streak, especially on the road against a good team that is coming off a win and has the revenge motive. The last team to apply to that situation was Oregon, who lost 42-51 as a 7 point favorite at Stanford earlier this month and the idea of betting against Oregon at that time was pretty scary too.
My situational analysis has been good over the years, but I'm still insisting on solid line value to make a game a Best Bet since my math model has been good this year while the situations have not been. So, I'll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more rather than making the Bobcats a Best Bet.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (-20.5) 42 Illinois 16
Cincinnati is unbeaten, but the Bearcats need to impress the voters if they have any chance of playing for the National Championship. Running up the score on Illinois shouldn't be much of a problem given how poor the Illini defense is and how good Cincinnati's attack is. The Bearcats have averaged 7.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they only two times they were held below 7.0 yppl was against good defensive teams Oregon State and South Florida. Illinois is a bad defensive team that has surrendered 6.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense and the Illini haven't faced team that is even close to as good as Cincinnati's offense this season. Cincinnati has faced 4 worse than average defensive teams this season (Fresno State, Miami-Ohio, Louisville, and Connecticut) and the Bearcats have averaged an incredible 8.5 yppl in those 4 games while rating at 2.6 yppl better than average (those 4 teams would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Illinois' defense is the same as the average of the 4 worse than average defensive teams that Cincy has faced and my math model projects 8.1 yppl for the Bearcats in this game, which should lead to more than 40 points.
Cincinnati also has a solid defense that has yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Illinois is slightly worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and are the same regardless of whether Juice Williams is at quarterback or not (he's expected to start this game after missing the last game). Illinois has averaged only 17 points per game in 9 games against Division 1A opponents and while Cincinnati has held 8 of their 9 1A opponents to 21 points or less and they've given up an average of just 18.4 points per game. The only teams to score 17 points or more against Cincinnati are good offensive teams Oregon State (18 points), Fresno State (20), South Florida (17), Connecticut (45), and West Virginia (21), so I don't see how a mediocre Illinois offense averaging just 17.4 points (against 1A teams) is going to score more than that. In fact, Illinois has only scored more than 17 points against a bad Michigan defense and a mediocre Minnesota defense.
Illinois has only faced two really good teams (Ohio State and Penn State) and they lost those games by an average of 24 points. The Illini also lost by an average of 19 points to the only other two better than average teams that they've faced (Missouri and Michigan State). Cincinnati is better than any team Illinois has faced this season and this game is at Cincy, so a loss of 21 points or more seems likely. My math model give Cincinnati a profitable 55.6% chance of covering at -20 1/2 points even after downgrading the Bearcats' offense for reinserting Tony Pike as the starting quarterback (Pike is very good, but Collaros was incredible in his place), so the value is still on the side of Cincy even after the early week line move from -17 1/2 to -20 1/2 points. I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less and I'd take the Bearcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 or less.
Strong Opinion
Wyoming 28 COLORADO ST. (-3.0) 26
Colorado State has lost 8 consecutive games and teams on long losing steaks are not usually the side the be on when favored against a team with a better record. In fact, teams that have lost 7 or more consecutive games are only 9-21-1 ATS when favored against a team with a better record and 5-6 Wyoming will be playing hard to try to become bowl eligible. Part of the reason for CSU's collapse is the injuries to key players on the defensive side of the ball. Top defender S Klint Kubiak has been out since week 7 and top LB Michael Kawulok was lost for the season in week 8. With Kubiak and Kawulok the Rams were pretty good defensively, but they've given up 6.5 yards per play in 5 games since week 7 (to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). Kubiak was also injured last season and the defense fell apart then too, so the poor defense in recent games is not attributable to random variance.
Wyoming is a bad offensive team (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but that's 0.4 yppl better than Colorado State's defensive rating without Kubiak. Wyoming has faced 4 bad defensive teams this season (Weber State, UNLV, Florida Atlantic, and New Mexico) and the Cowboys have scored 29 points or more in all 4 of those games. The average defensive rating of those 4 teams is 1.2 yppl worse than average, so I see no reason why Wyoming shouldn't be able to score a good number of points against a Rams' defense that is 1.4 yppl worse than average.
Colorado State's offense is 0.1 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and that unit has a 0.5 yppl advantage over a Wyoming defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average, which is about the same advantage that Wyoming's offense has in this game. Colorado State quarterback Grant Stucker may sit this one out with a bruised chest, but backup Jon Eastman appears to be at least as productive given his production off the bench in recent games.
Wyoming has the edge in special teams and my math model picks this game even after making the adjustments for Colorado State's defense. In addition to the line value, Wyoming applies to a 32-4 ATS subset of a 97-40-1 ATS last game revenge situation that applies if they remain a dog of 3 points or more. I'll consider Wyoming a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I'd take the Cowboys in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 or more.
Kelso
15 units Colorado +10.5
5 units Nevada +13.5
Mac Monster
25* Idaho-3
25* Georgia Tech - 8
15* USM +5.5
15* Ohio U + 2.5
10* TCU -44.5
10* UCLA + 13
10* Miss St + 7.5
7* Kansas + 3
Evan Altemus
5 Units Boise/Nevada Over 70
4 Units Illinois +21
3 Units Buffalo -3
3 Units Bowling Green -7.5
Anthony Redd
50 Dime Nevada
Sir Duke Sports
7* No Illinois +13
7* Auburn Tigers +10
7* Colorado Buffaloes +10
7* Ohio U +2.5
Boston Blackie
5* Memphis +16.5
Brandon Lang
15 DIME - WYOMING COWBOYS - I really don't feel this Colorado State should be favored against anybody right now.
They imploded last week at New Mexico pushing their 2009 ATS run to just 2 covers this entire year. Only twice has this team paid out.
The bottom line is this team has found ways to lose games all year now, and you just can't trust them in laying chalk.
Wyoming at least has been fighting and after the big game last week against TCU, things will seem really slow for them stepping down to take on Colorado State here.
Sometimes a school just wants a season to end, especially when it looked so promising when the season kicked off but it just hasn't been that way for this basketball team.
With a win today Wyoming becomes bowl matchup and I like them in this spot here to quite possibly win the game outright.
Let's ride em Cowboy with Wyoming today.
5 DIME - COLORADO BUFFALOES - Did you see Texas struggle with Texas A&M last night?
Nebraska faces that same situation against Colorado today. Regardless of what happens today they are in the Big 12 championship game versus Texas.
Can't fault them from suffering from the "Look Ahead" factor just like Texas last night.
Watching Colorado go into Oklahoma State as a 18 point underdog and almost winning the game outright told me a lot about this Dan Hawkins coached football team.
They almost won the game outright.
In a game I feel goes right down to the wire, but I am calling for Colorado to have a real shot at winning the game outright if they win the turnover battle and considering how Nebraska can turn it over with the best of them, like Colorado here.
Just like riding the Cowboys of Wyoming, I am riding the Buffaloes in Boulder to put forth a great effort and stay inside this number all day long.
FREE SELECTION - NEVADA WOLFPACK
ATS LOCK
4 Units Nevada +14
4 Units Alabama -9.5
3 Units Illinois +21
Underground Sports Connection
100* West Virginia -1
MIKE LINEBACK
Early Report
4* Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3
Teddy Covers
Alabama
Ohio