FREDDY WILLS
4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
Take Ohio +3
I'm going with Ohio the team with the knack for the big play and turnovers. They are second in the nation with 32 forced turnovers. This defense has been tested before and has answered the bell. They have a more challenging schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced compared to temple who has seen an average 79th total offensive teams this year while Ohio comes in at 67th.
The Keys to the game:
It's pretty simple to be honest get a lead early. Which ever team gets the early lead is going to win. If Temple can run the ball with a lead Ohio is in trouble, because Temple has the biggest O'line that Ohio will face. However, they came up huge a week ago against N. Illinois a mirror image on offense to Temple holding Chad Span to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of 103 rushing yards. N. Illinois still hung 31 up on Ohio in a loss, but they have QB that has a little more experience than Temple's starter Chester Stewart who can hurt you with his arm and feet, but lacks accuracy as he was just 6-16 a week ago. That's huge especially against a defense that can pick the ball off and I believe they will here today. Stewart is going to have to have a big game against Ohio as they will stack the box to stop the running game that has been hurt by injury their stud freshmen Bernard Pierce 1,349 and 15TD's is out for the game and miniature Matt Brown 5 foot 5 167 lbs won't have the same effect and should be contained by Ohio.
With that said if Ohio can contain Brown they will force TO's, and that will allow Theo Scott to hit the mid range passes like I know he can to his very talented receiving duo Brazill, and Price. Price who needs two TD catches to become Ohio's all time leader in TD receptions can take over a game and has game breaking speed. While Brazill is just that guy that reminds me of Hines Ward has a knack for the ball on third down and superb hands. You can also add in Terrence McCrae who will make some plays. Bottom line this game comes down to who can limit the TO's and throw the ball and I put it on Theo Scott the redshirt Sr. to get the job done against his counterpart.
Yes, Temple 3-0 on the road in the MAC, but the opponents have a combined 7-27 record, so this will be a completely different situation and environment with actual noise. I don't know if they can handle it on Black Friday!
Wayne Root
Vegas Legend - Cincinnati -21
Millionaire - Colorado +10½
Billionaire - Nevada +13½
Wunderdog
3 Units N Illinois
3 Units N Illinois Under
Sports Bets Now
2 Units Louisville +3
2 Units Auburn +10
2 Units West Virginia +1
1 Unit Phoenix -9.5
Northcoast Phones
4* Colorado
3* Illinois
3* Tulsa Over
BIG AL
Big East Conference GOY - Pitt
Road Warrior GOY - Nebraska
LARRY NESS
20* Club-80 Play-CFB (5-1 or 83.3% in CFB '09)
My 20* Club-80 Play is on Bowling Green at 2:00 ET. Bowling Green's season looked "dead in the water" when the Falcons lost 44-37 at home to Ohio U on October 3 (a Homecoming Game, no less). However, despite a rushing game which ranks 117th out of 120 FBS schools at 74.8 YPG (2.7 YPC), BG has won FIVE of its last six games (losing only to Central Michigan). Toledo snapped a three-game losing skid in its last outing, beating Eastern Michigan 47-21 (Eagles are just 1-10 in 2009). The win moved Toledo to 5-6 on the season. Putting points on the board has not been a problem for the Rockets, as they average 30.2 PPG. Toledo's running game is sound (159.9 YPG) and both four-year player Aaron Opelt plus freshman Austin Dantin have produced at QB. Regardless of who plays in this game, WRs Eric Page (75 catches / 1,029 yards / 7 TDs) and Stephen Williams 71 catches / 983 yards / 5 TDs) have proven to be quality performers. The problem for Toledo has been its defense, which is allowing 37.6 PPG (ranks 115th). The Rockets have struggled against the run (167.3 YPG / 30 TDs) but that's not a worry vs BG. However, the pass D has allowed 250.9 YPG (102nd) with 24 TDs allowed and just 12 INTs. That spells BAD NEWS against the combination of Bowling Green QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes. Sheehan has thrown for 3,528 yards this year, completing 64.6% with 21 TDs and just six INTs. During the team's 5-1 run, he's average 345.3 YPG through the air with 14 TDs and just three INTs. Barnes has caught 76 passes during that same stretch, topping 100 yards in each game, averaging 173.0 YPG (12 TDs). He's got 129 receptions on the season, within reach of the all-time single-season record owned by Manny Hazard of Houston (142) set in 1989. These schools are just 26 miles apart and usually when they get together it produces an exciting matchup. However, here's the catch. BG likely needs a win (and a 7-5 record) to garner a bowl bid. The Falcons are not just on a strong 'closing kick' in 2009. BG has been a great "November team" since the 2007 season with a 10-1 (90.9%) ATS mark in November games, averaging 36.1 PPG. Club-80 Play 20* Bowling Green.
20* Double-PERFECT STORM-CFB (8-3 or 72.7% in CFB '09)
My 20* Double-PERFECT STORM is on West Va at 7:00 ET. The 102nd edition of the "Backyard Brawl" is set for Friday in Morgantown, West Va. The Pitt Panthers are 9-1 and ranked No. 8 and the Mountaineers come in 7-3. How about the Big East this year? It was the only BCS conference to not have a single school ranked in any of the major preseason top-25 polls. However, on Thanksgiving weekend, Cincinnati is 10-0 and ranked 5th while Pitt 9-1 and ranked 8th. If Pitt were to win out (beat West Va here and Cincy next week), Pitt would get the automatic BCS Bowl bid and Cincy would be a strong contender for an at-large bid. That's not all. Rutgers, USF and West Va are all 7-3 and each school has been ranked at least ONCE in the weekly AP poll this yeear. Pitt comes in on a six-game winning streak and is 9-1 for the first time since Dan Marino's senior season of 1982. Not bad for head coach Dave Wannstedt who was on the coaching 'hot seat' just two years ago going into that year's "Backyard Brawl." Wannstedt acknowledges the Panthers' 2007 win over the Mountaineers as a turning point for his program and his own coaching career. Pittsburgh had come into that game 4-7 but including that win, his team has gone 19-5. QB Stull is hardly 'loved' by the Pitt fans but he's completed 66.3 percent of his passes this year with 18 TDs and just four INTs. Pitt fans do LOVE freshman RB Dion Lewis (1,291 YR / 5.8 YPC / 13 TDs) and with good reason. There's nothing wrong with that Pitt D either, as the Panthers allow 17.6 PPG (19th) and 314.7 YPG (21st). Now to the Mountaineers. With a win here and at Rutgers on Dec 5, West Va would finish at 9-3 (if Pitt would lose to Cincy, West Va would actually finish 2nd to the Bearcats in the Big East). However, those calculations mean little here to West Va. The Mountaineers really WANT this game (more in just a little bit). Don't dismiss this West Va team. The defense is sound, as evidenced by the team's recent 24-21 loss at Cincy, holding down the Bearcats, who have averaged 40 PPG in their other nine games this season. QB Jarrett Brown can throw and run and Noel Devine (1,098 YR / 5.7 YPC / 10 TDs) is one of the nation's most dynamic RBs. Now back to motivation. Forget about last year's 19-15 win by the Panthers in Pittsburgh. It's the 2007 game in Morgantown that will be the rallying cry for the Mountaineers in this one. Led by Rich Rodriguez, that Michigan man, the Mountaineers were just a win over Pitt away from qualifying for the 2007 BCS championship game. Pitt, a 4-7 team., came into Morgantown a 29-point underdog and beat the Mountaineers, 13-9. As mentioned earlier, Wannstedt recognizes that game as a turning point for him and his program and it has to rank as the "biggest disappointment" in West Va's football history. West Va did play a "de-facto national title game" against Notre Dame in the 1988 Fiesta Bowl (losing to the Irish 34-21) but that 2007 still 'stings.' Two weeks after that loss to Pitt, Rodriguez "got out of Dodge," on his way to Ann Arbor. Let me point out that West Va is 33-5 SU at home since 2004 and with a win here, would finish undefeated in Morgantown for the first time since 1993. I believe this scenario sets up a "perfect storm" for West Va. Why am I calling it a "Double-Perfect Storm?" Here's why. Pitt is ranked No. 9 in the latest BCS standings (its highest rating ever) and while this is the "Backyard Brawl," the Panthers will host Cincinnati next weekend with the winner of that game earning the Big East title (and the automatic BCS bid) REGARDLESS of the outcome of this game. Double-PERFECT STORM 20* West Va.
CFB Rivalry Shocker of the Month- Part 1 (65% CFB run s/Oct 21)
My 15* Rivalry Shocker of the Month is on Colorado at 3:30 ET. As we saw last night in College Station, rivalry games can "bring out the best" in some underdogs. One has to chose the "right ones." I believe I've done just that with Colorado, which is in a perfect situation to upset a 'flat' Nebraska team. Nebraska is headed for a Dec 5 showdown with Texas at Cowboys Stadium for the Big 12 championship game, win or lose here. More than that, Nebraska just isn't all that good. QB Zac Lee averages less than 170 YPG through the air (168.9 YPG) with a 12-7 ratio. The running game is nowhere the levels of past greatness with Helu (1,057 YR / 5.5 / 9TDs) the only player of note (No. 2 rusher has gained 159 yards). The defense is outstanding (10.3 PPG ranks 3rd in the nation / 281.3 YPG ranks 8th) but look at Nebraska's road games. The 'Huskers couldn't get in the end zone at Va Tech (five FGs) and at Missouri they trailed 12-0 into the 4th quarter when a 56-yard TD pass on a 3rd and eight play led to a three-TD burst in less than five minutes (the other two TDs set up by INTs). Nebraska barely won 20-10 at Baylor (had just 11 FDs and 273 total yards) and at Kansas on Nov 14, trailed 17-16 in the 4th quarter to a team currently on a six-game slide, before Helu's two TDs (the last coming with 29 seconds left) gave them a deceiving 31-17 win. Nebraska "is ripe for the plucking." Now Colorado must do its part. Dan Hawkins came to Boulder with a gaudy 53-11 record in five season at Boise St. Little has gone right. He was 2-10 in his first season, made it to a bowl game with a 6-6 regular season mark in 2007 (lost 30-24 to Ala) and then went 5-7 last season. The Buffs will finish with their FOURTH straight losing season this year (enter 3-8) with the year's lone bright spot being a 34-30 home win over then-No. 17 Kansas. Trouble is, that loss sent the Jayhwaks on a downward spiral that's seen the Jayhawks lose SIX straight games and put Mark Mangino on an even 'hotter' seast than Hawkins. That Kansas win hardly seems like much of a big deal now. Cody Hawkins (Dan's son) has been a MAJOR flop at QB and Tyler Hansen has been only moderately better. RB Rodney Stewart has seen either feast or famine this year, topping 100 yards in four games (114.4 YPG) while averaging 39.3 YPG in his other six (DNP one game). However, let me get back to this being a 'flat' spot for Nebraska (Big 12 championship game looms vs Texas) and the rivalry aspect of this contest. The Big 12 was formed in 1996 and these schools have met in Boulder in odd-numbered years. I'll just list the scores. Nebraska won 27-24 in 1997 and 33-30 in 1999. Colorado FAMOUSLY won 62-36 in 2001 (Nebraska still went to the BCS title game), Nebraska won 31-22 in 2003, Nebraska won 30-3 in 2005 and Colorado won 65-51 in 2007. That means the Buffs would have covered this pointspread in FIVE of the six meetings. Take those points. Rivalry Shocker of the Month (Part 1) 15* Colorado.
Vegas Buster
Platinum Play 5* Illinois +21
Gold Play 4* Nevada +14
Gold Play 4* Nebraska -10
LENNY STEVENS
20* Wyoming
10* Boise St
10* Tulsa
10* Auburn
RAS
Nevada +7
G Sou +1
Old Dominion +4
NORTHCOAST SPORTS
Nebraska at Colorado
Pick: Colorado +11
The HT has won 3 in a row SU/ATS but NU is 3-10 ATS vs CU. NU has outgained CU by 166 ypg the L/4 meetings. The Huskers (8-3 ATS TY) wrapped up the B12 North Title LW beating KSU. QB Lee is avg 186 ypg (60%) with a 12-7 ratio. CU suffered yet another loss on Thurs Night to OSU LW. QB Hansen (167 ypg, 58%, 5-4 ratio) and C Hawkins (160 ypg, 51%, 10-11) split time LW and both could play here. NU is 6-2 ATS on the road. Both tms offenses have been stuck in neutral (NU 345 ypg, CU 306 ypg) but their defenses (NU 281 ypg, CU 376 ypg) have been solid. In B12 North gms TY CU has been outgained by 71 ypg while NU is +54 ypg. NU does have UT on deck for the B12 Title and this may be a flat spot. CU is playing in their ssn/home finale, and under HC Hawkins (16-32) has not had a winning year. The Buffs are 4-2 as a HD the L/2Y and an outright upset win would not surprise us.
Payne Sports
10 Units West Virginia
NHL PRO PICKS
Early Games
Buffalo +115
NY Islanders +125
Anaheim +124
Seabass
100* Ohio
200* Bama
100* Nevada
50* Colorado
50* under NOILL
30* LOU
30*E Mich
50* Boston, Denver, An NJ Under
50* S Fla
50* Det
Steam 100* Tulsa
BIG AL
BIG EAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
Our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over West Virginia. This is a huge rivalry game (known as the Backyard Brawl), between the two universities separated by a mere 75 miles along Interstate 79. It's the 14th oldest rivalry in the country, and Pitt has won 61 of the 101 games (61-37 with 3 ties). The last time these two schools met in Morgantown, Pitt shocked then-head coach Rich Rodriguez' men 13-9 -- as 28-point underdogs -- and knocked the Mountaineers (ranked #2 at the time) out of the BCS Championship game race. Pitt also won last year 19-15, and looks to keep its winning streak going with a victory on this Friday. The shoe is on the other foot, so to speak, this season, as it's Pittsburgh that has BCS Bowl aspirations (though not the actual Championship game). Pitt is ranked 8th in the country, and has had a week to prepare for this huge game. The key to the Panthers is the balance they have, both on offense and defense. On the offensive side of the ball, for example, Pitt can hand the ball off to freshman RB Dion Lewis, who ranks 6th in the country in rushing with almost 1300 yards. Or it can rely on senior QB Bill Stull, who ranks 4th in passing efficiency this season (and who has really progressed this year as a player). Stull is helped mightily by the number of weapons at his disposal, not the least of which is WR Jonathan Baldwin. Baldwin, of course, will make catches all over the field. But once Pitt gets into the red zone, Stull likes to look for his big TE, Dorin Dickerson, who leads the country at his position with 10 touchdown catches. Overall, he has caught 43 passes, and he's a finalist for the Mackey Award, given to the nation's Top tight end. West Virginia, on the other hand, has not been putting up a lot of points of late, and I stay away from home dogs that can't score. WVU has averaged a meager 22 points over its last five games, and RB Noel Devine hasn't topped the 100-yard mark in three games. WVU's passing game has also fallen off a cliff, as it averaged 294 in its first three games, but just 174 yards a game in the last seven. Pitt is definitely the better team, and barring a huge disadvantage in the turnover column, should easily win this game. One of the problems for WVU, though, is that Pitt is good at holding onto the ball, with just nine turnovers in its 10 games (compared to 22 for the Mountaineers)! Big East Game of the Year on the Panthers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other college football winners on Friday.