Sammy Jankus Reverse Barometer
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
4* CHARLOTTE +2
Okay, today’s math class is now in session. In this corner we have the 4-1 Atlanta Hawks, whose only loss was to the defending NBA champ LA Lakers and whose four wins have come by an average of 9 PPG (lowest margin of victory 6 points). And in this corner we have… jeez, it’s the Bobcats, which means they aren’t much better than an expansion team. And I just have to lay a mere TWO POINTS to get the Hawks here? Consider it done! I LOVE Atlanta in this mismatch – so your play (and I feel bad doing this to you) is on CHARLOTTE.
WAYNE ROOT
2009 Football Upset Club
3* Louisiana Tech (+21) over Boise State
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -8.5
I had Chicago last night, but for a number of different reasons I believe Cleveland will "bounce back" and that the value in this game is on the Cavaliers:
Just like Michael Jordan, Lebron loves playing in New York and this will be his only trip to Madison Square Garden this season.
“He’ll be glowing. He’ll be ready,” said New York guard Larry Hughes, a former Cleveland teammate who keeps in touch with James. “He may not say he’s ready, but he’ll be ready to perform.”
James can become a free agent on July 1 and the Knicks have cleared enough cap space to offer him a maximum salary contract. He’s never said he wants to leave Cleveland, but he’s never ruled out coming to New York, either, so his future will be hotly debated until then - especially tonight!
On the other side of the court: In their last game, the Knicks' offense sputtered in the second half and managed just 15 points in the final 15 minutes of the game, including six straight empty possessions late in the fourth quarter as they lost 101-89 vs. the Pacers.
G Nate Robinson remains out with a sprained right ankle and C Eddy Curry remains on a team-ordered conditioning stint following a calf injury in training camp.
New York is already a poor 1-3 ATS this season when playing the roll of underdog.
Bottom line: Cleveland has been alternating good and poor efforts and I expect that trend to continue this evening; when you couple that with the rest of the above factors, the sharp money in this matchup is on the CAVALIERS! *8*
Marc Lawrence
PHOENIX SUNS +10
The Suns meet the Celtics in Beantown Friday night knowing they are 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS in games off a loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, Boston is 4-9 SU and ATS in this series when Phoenix is off a loss, including 1-5 SU and ATS when the Celtics are off a win. Grab the points in this upset maker here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.
Lenny Del Genio
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -12
We played against the Nets, who are making a case to be the NBA's worst team, Wednesday night and they no-showed as expected, losing by 29 at home to Denver. We suppose you can't really blame them as F Battie, F Yi, and PG Harris were all out. Even with those players, this was projected to be a last place team. Now you can add F Chris Douglas-Roberts (ill) to the list of the walking wounded, meaning that the new Russian billionare that bought the team may be calling Derrick Coleman and Kerry Kittles any time now (kidding). Philadelphia is off an atrocious loss to Boston, 105-74, so look for them to tee off against a division foe on the other side of the ledger. What better time to reverse a trend that has seen New Jersey cover 17 of the previous 22 meetings here in the City of Brotherly Love? The Nets are just 2-12 ATS as double-digit dogs the previous three seasons. Philadelphia is our 15* Division Game of the Week.
The Duke's Sports
LA Tech (+21) for 1.5 Units
Boise State/LA Tech 8:00: No question that Boise State is a legitimate power yet value lies with the home team. The Bulldogs are out to avenge last year's crushing 38-3 defeat and should be competitive in this spot; after all, they're 6-0 ATS as a home dog, 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 10+ and 6-1 ATS following a SU loss. We like Broncos' QB Ross Jenkins who manages the game well with limited mistakes. And we're hoping RB Porter and WR Livas, who were injured last week, can play up to their ability; had they not been questionable, we'd make this a stronger play. Tech has a seasoned offensive line that allow Jenkins to pass downfield and pave the way for Porter. And the Bulldogs' defense plays well at home. Boise has lost 4 of their last 5 ATS at Ruston and shouldn't have an easy time here.
Evan Altemus
DENVER NUGGETS -1
Denver is not getting enough from the betting public this season. The Nuggets are one of the best teams in the league, yet people have not realized this. As a result, I feel there is good value in this game. Miami doesn’t have an overwhelming home court advantage either, and there should be plenty of empty seats to start this game. Denver has shown the ability to play well on the road, including two straight wins and covers on their recent road trip. The Nuggets are well rested and should have enough motivation to stay undefeated this year.
3 UNIT SELECTION DENVER
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wise guy ESPN 2 Friday Night ATS BLOOD BATH on LA Tech +21.5
LA Tech will give Boise State a run for their money Friday at home. The Bulldogs have played a brutal schedule this year, playing 5 road games to just 3 home games. But LA Tech has done some serious damage at home in 2009. The Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season, scoring 40.0 points/game and allowing just 8.7 points/game while outscoring their opponents by 31.3 points/game. This team will feed off of their home crowd as they try and upset undefeated Boise State. LA Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Boise, so they've had good success here in the past, actually winning 2 of those 5 games outright. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games overall. Take LA Tech and the points.
5* Cavs/Knicks ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +8.5
The Cavs are clearly overrated to start the season, sitting at 3-3 thus far. They have been favored in every game. This is an inflated line Friday night as Cleveland travels to face the Knicks. New York is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Cavs are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. The last 2 meetings were decided by 5 points, with Cleveland coming out ahead both times. We feel the Knicks say enough is enough here tonight and likely pull off the upset. The Cavs just played last night, while New York has had a day to rest so they will be the fresher team which is also an advantage. Take the Knicks and the points.
4* on Denver Nuggets +1
Denver is making a statement in the early going that they are here to stay after reaching the Western Conference Semis last season. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and they aren't going to lose to a middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference team in Miami tonight. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Nuggets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Denver is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Miami. Take Denver and lay the points.
4* on Atlanta Hawks -2
The Hawks are a team from the East that is going to make some noise before season's end. They have a complete team that can do it all, with great guard play behind Bibby and Johnson and excellent post play in Horford and Smith. The Hawks have opened the season 4-1 with big road wins over the Blazers and Kings already. Their only loss was to the defending champion Lakers in a hard-fought 8-point road loss. Charlotte doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hawks in this one. Atlanta averages 108.0 points/game while Charlotte puts up just 79.8 points/game this year. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
3* on New Jersey Nets +12.5
The 76ers should not be favored by double-digits against any team in the league. Yes, the Nets have played poorly to start the season, but they are not 12 points worse than Philadelphia tonight. Philly is giving up 109.5 points/game through 4 games this year. Those aren't the kind of numbers that justify Philly being a 12-point favorite Friday. New Jersey is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the 76ers. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the Nets and the points
3* on Washington Wizards +1.5(-105 at spbook)
Off back-to-back heartbreaking losses, we look for Washington to bounce back tonight in Indiana as they take on the 1-3 Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are battling some serious injuries right now and they are far from full strength. Jeff Foster and Mike Dunleavy are out tonight, and Troy Murphy is doubtful with a back injury. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Wizards are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after a division game over the last 3 seasons. Washington is the more talented team here tonight, especially with the injuries the Pacers are facing. Take the Wizards and the points.
Seabass
20* Boise St Under 51
50* Minnesota
50* Portland
50* Dallas
Steam: Charlotte Bobcats
DAVE MALINSKY
4* CHARLOTTE over ATLANTA
The NBA schedule maker threw an early haymaker at the Atlanta Hawks, and we believe this is the spot in which they go woozy on the ropes and have to take a standing eight count. The Hawks had to take a rare early-season Western swing this week, and it was not set up well on either end. After a home win over Washington on Friday night there was little down time before facing the Lakers in L.A. on Sunday, the start of a ?3 in 4? cycle. But instead of the usual extra day off when traveling from West to East, and also the usual assignment of a home game on the return, they are instead forced to play on the road again, something that is most rare in this league. It means tired legs and a difficult time putting a game plan together, and there is also the distraction of a home showdown vs. Denver tomorrow night. That makes this a true danger zone for Mike Woodson and his team, and it is exacerbated by being in against an opponent that can be a trap in this setting, especially with Larry Brown having three full days to put a game plan together. As always, anything about Charlotte starts with Brown. Although the pieces on the court are not dynamic the Bobcats are playing superb fundamental basketball ? despite road games at Boston and Cleveland representing half of their schedule so far, they show up #2 on our best defensive charts through the first week of play; #2 in rebounding; and they have attempted 116 free throws, while only allowing their opponents to get to the line 69 times. And most of this has been working short-handed. Brown finally got Raja Bell back on the court in Monday?s win over New Jersey, and with Flip Murray ready to go tonight it means all hands on deck for the first time. That brings an energy that the Hawks will find difficult to match, and tactic preparation that will lead to major frustrations for the visitors.
National Sports Service Picks
5* Atlanta -2.5
3* Minny -2
3* Boise/LA Tech over 50
Ron Raymond
5* Hawks/Bobcats Over
Tony George
MINNESOTA T'WOLVES -2.5
Like the T Wolves here, especially in the frontcourt where they have contested the rim all season, and have only been out rebounded 1 time all year. Not sold on the Bucks young lineup and although Jennings is going to be special, not sure the consistent scoring across the board for Minny can be ignored. Bucks have lost both road games to date. Minny battle tested and came within 2 points of beating mighty Boston in here.
Play 1 Unit on Minnesota
ATS Lock Club
4 Units La Tech
Larry Ness
20* Perfect Storm Minnesota - 2.5