MUST WIN SPORTS
5 Units BYU
Jeff Benton
20 DIME BYU
How rough was the first month of the season for BYU? After opening up with a 23-17 come-from-behind upset win over Washington (as a 1½-point home underdog), the Cougars proceeded to drop three straight games to Air Force, Florida State and Nevada while producing a whopping 37 points and just four touchdowns!
This is BYU – a team notorious for chucking the ball all over the field with great success and putting up 30-plus points per game, a team that’s coming off four straight 10-plus win seasons – and it has not only lost three in a row, but the main reason was because of poor offensive prodaction? What’s more, the Cougars went off as underdogs in all four games? What the hell is going on here?
I’ll tell you what’s going on: BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall didn’t have an experienced quarterback in place to take the reins from departed three-year signal-caller Max Hall (now the backup for the NFL’s Cardinals). On top of that, Mendenhall’s leading rusher – Harvey Unga – was booted from school in the offseason. That’s a ton of lost production to make up for, and so far BYU has failed to do it.
That said, if ever there was a get-healthy game for the Cougars – and the offense in particular – this would figure to be it. Not only because they’ve owned Utah State in the past (more on that shortly), but because the Aggies are coming off back-to-back horrific defensive efforts against Fresno State (41-24 loss as a 3½-point home underdog) and San Diego State (41-7 as a 9½-point road pup). Last week’s loss in San Diego was particularly distuirbing because SDSU was in a big-time letdown spot. The previous week, the Aztecs let an upset loss at Missouri slip away in the final seconds, and yet Utah State got steamrolled, giving up 504 yards (362 passing) and producing just 245 (130 passing).
As much as this is a transition year for BYU, the Cougars still have way more talent than Utah State. And although freshman QB Jake Heaps is experiencing growing pains – Heaps was splitting time with former Utah State transfer Riley Nelson until Nelson went down with a season-ending injury – the kid has the skills to play at this level. And now that he’s got a full game under his belt (last week’s loss to Nevada) and is taking a step down in competition, I expect him to put up solid numbers tonight.
Back to the series history: BYU is 20-1 against Utah State since 1983 (only loss was in 1993), with five of the last six wins by big margins (38-14, 54-34, 38-0, 34-14 and – last year – 35-17). The Cougars have been a double-digit favorite in each of the last 10 meetings, and on top of that, earlier this summer on the future board, BYU was a 16-point chalk in this game. Now the line is down to 4-4½ with money pouring in all week on Utah State.
I know Aggies backers are operating on the notion that if Utah State is ever going to get BYU, THIS is the year it will happen. I counter that argument with the fact that the Cougars are extrlmely desperate and unlike in previous years when they could look past Utah State toward the next game, that will NOT be the case tonight. BYU will be 100 percent focused on the task at hand, and given the obvious talent discrepancies across the board and the incredible line value, my money is on BYU – which hasn’t lost four straight games in 17 years – to snap out of its funk.
JR Tips
10* Utah State +4
Lenny Del Genio
Toronto +120
It is very rare for the Twins to find themselves off a blowout loss, at home no less, the magnitude of which they suffered on Thursday. Yesterday, they continued their recent trend of phoning it in since clinching the American League Central Division as they fell 13-2 in the series opener to the Blue Jays. It was the fifth time in seven games that Minnesota pitching allowed ten or more runs. Homefield advantage in the AL Playoffs is still a possibility, but the team is not playing like they want it. Losses in six of their last seven games have dropped them one game behind AL East co-leaders New York and Tampa Bay. Injuries to C Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have been the culprit. Consider that over the last three seasons, the Twins are only 14-28 when playing with revenge for a loss where the opp scored 10+ runs. They are just 2-12 revenging a home loss by 10+ runs. Lefties give them problems and so does Toronto. The Blue Jays are 15-5 L20 vs. Minnesota, including 7-1 here in the Twin Cities. They send lefty Romero (3.79 ERA) to the bump tonight as he looks to improve his team start record to a perfect 8-0 when coming off an outing where he walked five or more batters. Minnesota averages just 4.5 runs per game vs. southpaws, which is a notable dip off their overall season average. The Blue Jays offense was on full display last night with six home runs and the team overall is hot with wins in eight of their previous eight games. They are big money makers vs. righties TY (+$1995), so look for them to dominate Carl Pavano (7.71 ERA L3 starts). Minnesota is favored solely on reputation, not based on the way either of these teams are playing right now. Toronto is our MLB VEGAS ICON.
Best Picks
BYU -3
Baseball Prophet
Toronto / Minnesota Over 8
Marc Lawrence
BYU -5
BYU disappointed us last week in their home loss to Nevada but we’ll look for Bronco Mendenhall to rebound from his first-ever three game losing streak. The six-year head coach is now married to freshman QB Jake Heaps with junior signal-caller Riley Nelson lost for the season with a shoulder injury. Mendenhall is 16-0 SU and 12-4 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SU losses. And there is also value aplenty in this contest as the Cougars have never been favored by less than 17 points in this series. In fact, the last time BYU arrived in Logan two short years ago, they were installed as a healthy 29-point choice. We'd be remiss if we didn't remind you that BYU has won 20 of the last 21, including 10 straight games, in this series. The clincher comes from our database as it tells us to: Play On any college football favorite or dog of four points or less off three SU and ATS losses in a row if they won 10 or more games last year and are facing a sub. 500 foe. That's because these teams are 15-0 ATS if the last loss was by 10 or more points ATS and the defeat was by 24 or less points straight-up. Back the hungry Cougars here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on BYU
Detroit GM 2
The Tigers end the season with a three-game series in Baltimore when they send Rick Porcello to the mound against the Orioles. Porcello enters the game in terrific KW form with two walks an 19 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 6-0 in his last six starts overall and 1-0 in his career against the Birds. With the Tigers have plated five or more runs in nine of their last 13 games, we'll back Porcello here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Detroit.
Brian Gabrielle
BYU at Utah State
Pick: Utah St +4.5
BYU will be looking to regain some of it's lost luster on Friday night, but they drag their sorry 1-3 record into Logan to face the Aggies of Utah State.
It's a difficult spot for BYU, who has covered just 1 of the last 5 games in this series and are just 2-7 in their last 9 against WAC opponents. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 5-1 in their last 6 non-conference meetings and 6-1 in their last 7 here in Logan when hosting teamks with losing records, as is the case in this one.
I'll make a trendy play on the home dog.
Aggies 27, Cougars 24
Take Utah State
Paul Leiner
50* Orioles -140 GM 2
25* Yankees -115
Bob Balfe
San Francisco Giants -158
The Padres are hanging on to playoff hopes by a thread. They need to sweep this series against the Giants and I do not see that happening. The Giants don't give up too many runs and the Padres are terrible at generating them. Look for the Giants to put it away tonight. Take San Francisco.
The Duke's Sports
BYU Under (51') for 1.5 Units
Despite poor defense efforts this season by both of these teams, we'll stay "under" in a series that is 0-3 O/U in its last 3 meetings. The Aggies will face a BYU offense that is led by a true freshman in Jake Heaps. BYU's offense should maintain a ball control game considering they're on the road and that backup QB Riley Nelson has a season ending shoulder injury. Utah State's defense hasn't looked good but they should improve tonight; after all, Utah State does get a few defensive back starters back who sat out in last week's debacle vs SD State. And the Aggies are 6-14 O/U after allowing 280+ yards passing. On the other hand, Utah State's offense, which was supposed to be rolling this year with an experienced offensive line, a versatile QB Borel, good targets and a deep running back corps, is now battling injuries; consequently, after BYU has faced 4 pretty tough opponents, we'll look for their best defensive effort of the season. BYU is 5-11-1 O/U after allowing 200+ rushing yards. The Aggies top running back --Smith-- is out and their top OL Johnson is out. SD State defense was all over Borel on virtually every play and BYU should pattern that aggressive scheme tonight after the shoddy offensive line play by the Aggies. Utah State is 1-7 O/U in October.
Mike Lineback
4* POD SF Giants
AntonWins
2 Units BYU -4
David Banks
Utah State +4
Utah State / BYU Under 51.5
Cincinnati Reds -140
Tampa Bay -142
San Francisco -160
Anthony Redd
25 Dime Utah State