Fantasy Sports Gametime
1000* Play South Florida (+8) over Cincinnati
South Florida has won 7 of the last 8 games coming off a game with a turnover margin of -1 or worse and they have also won 7 of the last 8 games after scoring six or less points in their last game. South Florida has covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games coming off two or more losses and they are only allowing 16 points a game on defense this season.
Mike Lineback
4* POD NY/Texas OVER 9
O.C. Dooley
2 Units Yankees / Rangers Under 9
I am fully aware that Texas tagged Phil Hughes for 7 runs in game-two of the ALCS at Arlington, but that statistically was an aberration. In his rookie season for the Yankees, the highly touted Hughes was working on a “no hitter” at Texas prior to exiting early with a hamstring injury. Prior to the second game of this particular League Championship series, Hughes had twirled 15.1 consecutive innings at Texas yielding just THREE HITS and I am looking for more of the same with the Bronx Bombers entire season on the line. In his last 3 trips to the mound Colby Lewis (2.30 ERA) quietly has been extremely effective for a Texas organization that not only drafted him way back in 1999, they rescued him from Japan prior to this 2010 campaign. To make a long story short Lewis’ career was sidetracked by major shoulder problems, but he is finally producing for the organization that originally placed great faith in his services. My database research indicates that for the entire season to date Colby Lewis is an amazing 17-5 UNDER the total which pitching at NIGHT. In addition the Yankees are on a stunning 17-4 UNDER tear immediately following a game where the offense pounded out “6+ extra base hits”. Finally in League Championship Series games where the posted total is either 9-or-9’ runs, UNDER the total (50-20) has come through 71-PERCENT of the time dating all the way back to 1997
Nite Owl Sports
3 Units Cincinatti Bearcats -7.5
This ESPN match-up between Big East rivals Cincy and USF features Bearcats’ steadily improving offense against USF’s good but not great defense, which has held up pretty well so far TY, although they also haven't faced the toughest of schedules. And on the lower end of the scale is the contest between a suspect Bearcat defense and a USF offense which has struggled mightily all year, especially in their three games against legitimate teams, all losses both SU and ATS, at Florida and at West Va, and at home to Syracuse, as 8 point faves. And we capitalized on recognizing these teams’ strengths and weaknesses in last week’s ESPN games involving both of them, as we “cashed” with West Va and the Under last Thursday night against USF, and same story the next night with Cincy and the Over against LVille, a game in which Cincinnati beat Louisville 35-27, and 45 points had been scored by HT.
And we still don't believe the odds makers have a proper handle on just how good this Cincinnati offense is right now, as Bearcats have scored 29, 45, and 35 points over their last three games, with the 29 and 35 coming against against some reasonably tough competition in Oklahoma and Louisville. And Cincy QB Zach Collaros has quietly become one of the most efficient passers in the nation this season, completing over 63% of his passes for 1,455 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He'll likely improve on those numbers against a South Florida secondary that has decent overall #s so far, but remains largely untested. And note that while the USF Bulls allowed only 20 points against West Virginia last week, the Mountaineers were able to do pretty much whatever they wanted on offense, being limited by conservative play-calling in the second half, and West Va QB Geno Smith was near perfect in that game, completing 24-of-31 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns. That doesn't bode well for the Bulls as they prepare to face dual (running and passing) threat Collaros and the Bearcats explosive offense on tonight. But the real key on offense for Bearcats has been the return (from minor early season injury) of running back Isaiah Pead, who in the last three games has rushed for an average of 170 yards, which has kept opposing defenses honest and helped set up lots of “play action” passes for Collaros. Moreover, history is also on the side of the Bearcats, as Cincinnati has prevailed both SU and ATS in the last four contests in this series (all competitively priced games with the line being 5 or less and Bearcats “dogged” in two of them), with an average MOV (margin of victory) of 13 points. And Cincy is 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last 3 HGs against USF, with an even greater average MOV of 18 points. But the Cincy defense, while good against the run so far TY (allowing just 112 YRPG and 3.3 YPC), is vulnerable to the pass, allowing 277 YPPG and with only two “picks” all season, and was “abused” for 370 YP by Okla’s Landry Jones in their tight 29-31 loss to Sooners a few weeks ago. Cincinnati has really only faced one dual-threat QB this season, that being Russell Wilson of N.C. State, and he was able to carve the Bearcats up for 333 passing yards and three touchdowns. And South Florida has a mobile QB of its own in B.J. Daniels, but he is nowhere near the QB that NC State’s Wilson is, and he is looking to get his season untracked after a tough start, averaging just 122 YPPG in all games (which includes USF’s home victories over Sun Belt weaklings FAU and Western Ky), and has thrown a whopping 10 INTs, many at really inopportune times, like at the end of the 1H in LW’s loss at West Va, after which Mounties scored a TD in final seconds of 1H to turn a tight 10-3 game into a 17-3 HT lead from which the run-oriented USF offense was never able to recover.
Due mostly to Daniels’ struggles, South Florida has done little to nothing offensively over the last two weeks, producing a grand total of 15 points in losses to Syracuse and West Virginia., and failing to even score a single TD in either game. And although USF’s 1Y HC Skip Holtz is 23-11 ATS as a road dog since 2005 (counting his days as HC at East Carolina), he is now 0-2 as a road dog at USF (that 6-20 loss LW at West Va and a numbing 38-14 blowout loss at Florida in Sept., where Bulls were stampeded by Gators in 2H, 31-7, and gave up 251 YR on 6.8 YPC).
Based on the above and our trademark match-up analysis, we look for Cincinnati to set the tone early with at least one quick score, and then extend the lead throughout the game, and if USF is forced to play catch-up with mistake –prone (10 INTs already TY) QB BJ Daniels having to pass more than Bulls’ OC Fitch would like, Bulls are in a heap of trouble. So while we are not wild about laying > a TD here, we believe that the best option for playing this game is to do just that, and will make this 3 unit ATS pick on Cincinnati at -7.5.
MADDUX SPORTS
incinnati Bearcats -9
Red Dog Sports
3* Orlando
Rocketman
5* Cincinnati -7.5
Both teams come in with identical 3-3 records on the season. South Florida is 0-2 SU on the road this year where they are averaging only 10 points per game. Cincinnati is scoring 38 points per game at home this year while allowing only 13.7 points per game at home this season. Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS overall vs South Florida since 1992. Cincinnati is 3-0 SU and ATS at home vs South Florida since 1992. Bearcats are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win. Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We'll play Cincinnati for 5 units tonight!
Brian Edwards
South Florida at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -7
I made this number 11.5, so I'm thrilled to get it at minus seven. USF's offense has been absolutely atrocious, producing just 15 points in the last eight quarters against West Va. and Syracuse. In the Bulls' only other game against someone of any merit (Florida), they scored just 14 points. In other words, they can't score. Cincy, on the other hand, can score in bunches. Zach Collaros is enjoying an outstanding year, throwing five TD passes in last week's win at Louisville. For the year, Collaros has a 17/3 TD-INT ratio. On the other hand, B.J. Daniels has four TD passes compared to 10 interceptions. Give me Cincy laying the points.
The Duke's Sports
South Florida (+9) for 1.5 Units
Cincy has covered 6 straight in this series and has played well over the last three games but we like the value with S.Florida. B.J. Daniels, who had a horrific game last week at West Virginia, should fare better here. Skip Holtz should make the needed corrections -- offensively -- and get top receiver Bogan more involved. S.Fla was in the game vs WV until that horrible interception before the half to set up a momentum shifting Mountaineer TD. South Florida's defense remains rock solid and capable of winning the line-of-scrimmage battle. SF is 6-1 ATS as a dog of more than 2 points in the 2nd of back-to-back road games, and they're 5-1 ATS on the road off back-to-back SU losses. We're going to look for a competitive game from the Bulls tonight.
Lenny Del Genio
NY Yankees -105
Despite holding the 3 games to 2 edge in the series, does ANYONE feel confident in the Rangers right now? The Yankees bats finally came alive in a 7-2 Game Five victory Wednesday afternoon that saw the club hit multiple home runs. Texas keeps its 'ace in the hole' (Cliff Lee) waiting in the wings for a possible Game Seven and they might as well start warming him up now as we don't like tonight's starter Colby Lewis in this high pressure situation. The Rangers have won just 14 of his 32 starts this season and that includes a horrible mark of just three wins in 16 tries when he works on five or six days rest. His TSR off a team loss was just 4-11 before the Game 2 win. Yankees go with Phil Hughes in a pitching rematch of Game 2, and while New York came out on the short end of that one, it was an uncharacteristic bad outing for Hughes of late as the righty threw seven innings of shutout ball against Minnesota in the LDS and in his three previous starts in this ballpark he'd allowed no runs and only three hits in 15+ IP. Hughes has also been better on the road than at home this season with a 3.58 ERA in 11 starts. As mentioned in our Game 1 WINNER, Texas is not used to these high pressure situations and they're just 1-3 at home this postseason. NY Yankees are our ALCS Game 6 winner.
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Cincinnati Bearcats -8
4 Units Texas/NY Yankees OVER 9
KELSO
10 Units Cincinnati Bearcats -8
5 Units Texas Rangers +100
Jennifer Barry
30* Cincinnati Bearcats -8
I am out of here guys.