Chris Jordan
100♦ OVER West Virginia/South Florida - The world is on South Florida as the home underdog tonight, and I completely understand why. But far be it for me to side with everyone, so I am taking my chances with a total that should find its way over the posted number early in the fourth quarter.
This is a relatively low number for a game involving the Mountaineers, particularly on the highway, as their two road stints this season have averaged 59 points per game – including a 41-30 loss at SEC foe Auburn. This is Big East play, and with the visitors toting a 6-1 mark, I’m thinking West Virginia’s goal will be to come right out and do what Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have done recently – and that is to score points.
The blue print has been laid since South Florida’s 5-0 start, and that is to make adjustments after the first quarter – not the first half – and take the Bulls out of their game in the second half. U Conn outscored South Florida 14-3 in the second quarter of their clash on Oct. 15, and Pitt outpointed the Bulls 24-7 in the second quarter last Saturday. Goal for the Mountaineers – score points.
Now, does that mean I want to take my chances with West Virginia against a viable home pup? Absolutely not. South Florida has a decent rushing game, and by controlling the clock to set up the big play – something the Mountaineers have failed to stop this season. This is where South Florida stays competitive in this one. For the year, opponents are averaging 236 yards through the air per game, which is way too many.
Take this total high tonight, as we’re looking at something like a 31-28 ball game – possibly on the last possession - for one of these two teams tonight. The total will be in the 50s though.
100♦ MIAMI HEAT - Taking a shot with the underdog in this Eastern Conference clash, as the number is climbing early on, as I’ve seen it jump from 1-1/2 to 2 this morning. But I’m not buying it, as I was very impressed with how balanced this Heat team looked in its season opener. I know Miami has lost 14 straight at Indiana, but much of the problem can be attributed to poor shooting when in Indianapolis.
Yet this is a different season and an enthused lineup led by guard Dwayne Wade, the reigning NBA scoring champion, and forward Jermaine O’Neal, the former Pacer. The two combined for 48 points Wednesday night in the season opener against the Knicks, and according to O’Neal’s post-game comments, “this is the first time in 2-1/2, three years where (he) feel(s) real good, the body is responding great, (his) movements are great, no knee braces.”
You add in second-year player Michael Beasley, and the Heat seemingly have their own Big Three to contend with, following in the footsteps of the 2008 champion Celtics.
The Pacers won’t be able to keep up with that scoring trifecta, as Danny Granger is bothered by a bruised heel. And even though he is expected to play, he only played 22 minutes in a 120-109 loss to Atlanta. And while four players scored in double digits, the rest of the roster scored no more than eight points.
The Heat, who had five in double figures Wednesday night, didn’t see anyone play more than 36 minutes – which means everyone had at least a quarter off collectively – and I feel will be well-rested for this one tonight. Take the pup here, as Miami aims for the outright win.
100♦ LOS ANGELES LAKERS - I like the thought of laying the chalk here, as the Lakers came out somewhat flat in their season-opener Tuesday night against the Clippers. Fact is, it can be distracting to play with a high intensity after enduring the ring ceremony. Maintaining that type of energy that generally flows during the ceremonies is difficult, and that’s probably why the Lakers didn’t cover against their in-town rival and the total stayed under.
Now it’s time for them to strut their stuff, swag their swagger and shoot the lights out. The Lakers got away with a poor shooting night on Tuesday – a paltry 41.2 percent from the field – while they made just four of 17 three-pointers and 25-of-37 free throws. That’s simply too uncharacteristic for the Lakeshow, and I don’t see defending champs faltering like that again. Not on a Friday night at Staples Center.
That same night the Mavericks shot 39.5 percent against Washington and lost 102-91. Other than Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion, the rest of Mark Cuban’s minions struggled offensively. And as long as forward Josh Howard is nursing injuries to his ankle and wrist, there’s no one to assist Nowitzki and help alleviate some of the pressure he has in carrying the Mavs.
I know the last six meetings have been decided by less than seven points, but the Lakers won them all and have owned this series at Staples Center, winning 33 of 36 at home against the Mavs.
And for all intents and purposes, this is the game we’re going to see a preview of the true Lakers for the 2009-10 season, with Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant turning the heat up for a holiday-weekend crowd. Pau Gasol is still questionable, but it won’t matter if he plays or not, the Lakers roll
Marc Lawrence
Indiana Pacers
C-Star Sports
5000 Units Cleveland minus the points over Minnesota
Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
Washington (+6 1/2) over ATLANTA
Washington's upset win over Dallas on opening night was no fluke as the Wizards played well offensively (as expected), took care of the ball (only 9 turnovers), and played good defense (just 39.5% shooting for Dallas). Washington's starters are all at least average players and having net positive players Randy Foye and Andray Baltche coming off the bench make the Wizards a good team in my estimation. Atlanta should be about the same as they were last year, which is to say that they'll be 1 or 2 points better than average, but I think Washington is at least that good as long as they stay healthy (their top 7 players are solid, but it's ugly down the bench). My ratings favor Atlanta by just 4 points in this game and Washington applies to a 19-1 ATS game 2 indicator. I'll take Washington in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars at +5 1/2 or +5 points. 3-Stars at +6 or more, 2-Stars at +5 1/2 or +5.
2 Star Selection
Chicago (+12) over BOSTON
Chicago covered in a good situation last night against the Spurs and that win sets up the Bulls in a very profitable 19-1 ATS game 2 indicator. Boston looks like the best team in the NBA right now, winning as a dog at Cleveland and destroying Charlotte in their home opener 92-59, but this is a letdown spot for Boston. It was certainly easy to get up for the opener at Cleveland and the home opener always brings about good intensity, but facing a non-division opponent after two satisfying wins to open the season is reason to relax. Teams that winning records the previous season are just 5-20-1 ATS in game 3 against a non-division opponent if they won and covered the spread in their first two games of the season. My ratings favor Boston by 11 1/2 points and the line opened at 11 and went up to 12 points, so I'll assume my ratings to accurately reflect the true line. The technical analysis strongly favors the Bulls here and I'll take Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more. 2-Stars at +11 or more.
3 Star Selection
Dallas (+8) over L.A. LAKERS
Dallas is going to be a better team this season than they were last season and randomly bad 3-point shooting (4 for 18) played a big role in their opening loss to an underrated Wizards team. Jason Terry also had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night (4 for 15), so I wouldn't make too much of that opening night setback. That loss actually sets up Dallas in a very strong 39-4-3 ATS subset of an 81-21-5 ATS early season indicator and using last year's games would result in a fair line of Lakers by 8 1/2 points, which is where the line opened. However, I rate the Mavericks a couple of points better than last year's team even without Josh Howard. The Lakers also had a bad outside shooting night in their 99-99 non-covering win over the Clippers (just 4 for 17 from 3-point range), but so did the Clippers (3 for 15). I like the Mavericks here in a very strong situation and with what looks like a bit of line value if my assumption that they are a better team this year is correct. I'll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 1/2 points or more and for 2-Stars at +7.
3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more, 2-Stars at +7.
PPP
3% South Florida
LT Profits
2* South Florida