Chad Greene
Cal/Nevada Over 65
Angels/Rays Under 8.5
Northcoast
Marquee - Cal
Opinion - S Miss
Jeff Benton
30 DIME CALIFORNIA -2½
10 DIME ASTROS
CALIFORNIA -2½
Plain and simple, Nevada is the biggest bully in all of college football. When the Wolf Pack are matched against the Little Sisters of the Poor – you know, schools like UNLV, Colorado State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, etc. – they look like the 2008 Florida Gators. But when forced to buakle their chin straps and run with the big boys of college football, the Wolf Pack put their collective tail between their collective legs and cower in the corner.
To the first point: Nevada has won its first two games this year by scores of 49-24 and 51-6. The opponents? Eastern Washington and Colorado State, respectively. Last year, Nevada beat UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, Idaho, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State and New Mexico State by a combined score of 413-181. That’s eight wins by an average margin of 51.6-22.7.
What did the Wolf Pack do in their five losses last season? 35-0 at Notre Dame, 35-20 at Colorado State (which is embarrassing, as they were favored), 31-21 to Missouri, 44-33 at Boise State, 45-10 to SMU (bowl game). Going back to the start of the 207 season, Nevada has lost eight straight games to teams from upper-echelon conferences (plus independent Notre Dame). Not only did they lose those eight games, they went 1-7 ATS.
With the exception of the one spread-cover – 36-31 loss at Northwestern as a 10-point ‘dog in 2007 – every other defeat has been a blowout. I meentioned the Notre Dame and Missouri losses last year, but there was also the following: 35-19 home loss to Texas Tech; 69-17 road loss at Missouri; 42-35 bowl-game loss to Maryland; 52-10 road loss at Nebraska.
Bottom line: Even though the jury is still out on how good Cal is – though the Bears certainly opened some eyes with that 52-7 dismantling of Colorado on Saturday – there’s no doubt in my mind they’ve got better athletes on both sides of the football than Nevada does (especially defensively). The fact Nevada is a home ‘dog here tells us that much.
And even though Cal has a tough road game on deck next week (Pac-10 opener at Arizona), I don’t see ANY way the Bears get caught in a letdown trap here – not on the road, not in a prime-time televised contest, and not when coach Jeff Tedford and his staff know how dangerrus Nevada’s offense can be.
No, Cal will be 100 percent focused for this contest, with their superior strength, speed and athleticism, the Bears will beat down Nevada the same way every other BSC school beats up on the Wolf Pack – we’re talking an easy double-digit win for the visitors.
ASTROS
I can’t pass up Wandy Rodriguez at a pick-em price at home, even if he’s facing the first-place Reds and even if he’s been the recipient of some horrible luck. Rodriguez has delivered 10 consecutive quality starts going 4-1 with a paltry 1.30 ERA during this stretch while giving Houston at least seven innings eight times, including in each of the last four starts.
This 10-game run began with a dominating 4-0 home victory over the Reds, as he allowed just one hit and two walks with seven strikeouts in seven shutout innings. In fact, if you take away a wind-altered, five-run, six-inning effort at Wrigley Field on July 19 – and he was spotted an 8-1 lead in that game – Rodriguez has a 1.70 ERA in 12 starts since June 24, and all 12 were quality starts.
Additionally, if you eliminate an eight-run, 3 1/3-inning disaster in Cincinnati back on May 28, Rodriguez’s last nine starts against the Reds dating to August 2008 have yielded the following stats: 10 earned runs, 55 hits, 15 walks, 71 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings (1.63 ERA).
Finally, the Astros have been solid in the second half of the season, going 34-23 – including 17-7 in the last 24 overall and 10-2 in their last 12 against N.L. Central foes – to pull within six games of .500. Houston also has won 18 of 25 at Minute Maid Park, and you know they would relish the opportunity to beat their rivals and make them sweat at little bit (the Reds, who have lost five straight on the road, have a magic number of 10 coming into this game). On top of that, the Astros will be motivated because they’ve lost 19 of the last 25 meetings to Cincinnati.
Lenny Del Genio
25* Southern Mississippi -5.5
Kansas cost us dearly last week as we suffered our worst ever defeat with a top-rated "VEGAS ICON" play with Georgia Tech losing outright to the Jayhawks as two TD chalk. We now must make KU pay! QB Jordan Webb (did not start 1st game) proved to be a difference maker, but we think that this is a tough scheduling spot after having to play the Tech triple option. In fact, they are just 27-46 ATS when playing on the road with less than a full week of rest. Remember, Kansas lost its first game of the season 6-3 to FCS North Dakota State - at home! Once again, we believe that HC Turner Gill inherited a true mess here and that opening week performance may be a sign of things to come. The ugly firing of Mark Mangino left the cupboard pretty bare and despite 13 starters returning from a year ago, the losses of QB Todd Reesing (school's all-time passing leader) and WR's Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier (two careers with 200+ receptions) was huge. It is quite rare to lose that kind of production at the wideout position in one year and last week we saw the results. Furthermore, we wonder if the hiring of Gill is all its cracked up to be. A much celebrated hire due to the pathetic lack of racial progress in College Football, Gill's resume essentially hangs its hat on a fortune-filled 2008 season at Buffalo with the team benefiting from several close wins and a incredible turnover ratio. His Bulls team actually ranked just 8th in the MAC that year in yard differential per game and was whipped in its bowl game by UConn 38-20 (outgained 407-237) His 4-year record at Buffalo was just 20-30 remember. Dating back to the end of the Mangino era, Kansas had actually lost eight straight games with the lone cover coming by a single point in the regular season finale vs. rival Missouri, before last week's upset of GT. We are getting plenty of line value here due to Southern Miss losing its opener 41-13 to South Carolina on national TV. However, the Golden Eagles quickly bounced back with 464 yards total offense in a 31-0 win against overmatched Prarie View A&M last week. The USM defense is the best in Conference USA with nine starters returning from a unit that allowed just 330 YPG at home last year. In addition, they were a perfect 6-0 SU at Roberts Stadium a year ago. These teams did meet in 2009, in Lawrence, with Southern Miss easily covering as 13-point underdogs. The game was tied in the 4th quarter and if not for a late INT, the dog could have possibly won outright. They get their revenge in Hattiesburg. Southern Miss is our 25* Friday Night Game of the Year.
Minnesota -120
We've been playing the Twins A LOT recently and for good reason. Last night's 8-5 win over the White Sox not only put the AL Central pennant essentially out of reach, but it also improved the club to a MLB best 42-15 since the All-Star Break. They have been on fire of late with 11 wins in the last 12 games and the lone loss (last Fri vs. Cleveland) came by a 2-0 score. This is an incredible price to get down on them considering their 32-13 run in home night games. They are 21-6 this year if they scored eight or more runs in their previous game. They are an incredible 54-17 when the money line is between -100 and -150, including 30-8 at home. Finally, we note they are a perfect 10-0 in Friday home games, for what that's worth. Starter Nick Blackburn has been sharp of late (0.76 ERA L3 starts) and his team has dominated Oakland in head-to-head play, going 5-1 TY, including a three-game sweep here at Target Field last month. The A's are not good on the road in night games (17-34) and were outscored 17-6 by the Royals of all teams in their last two games. Two teams in different classes here and the price does not reflect that. Minnesota is our #1 MLB Game of the Week.
ANTHONY REDD
50 Dime California -2.5
Tim Trushel
20* Twins Under
Giants Under
Youngstown Connection
Arizona -123
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units So Miss -6
4 Units Nevada +2
Craig Davis
30 Dime Teaser Nevada & Over
Marc Lawrence
Chicago White Sox -125
The White Sox open a crucial three game series with the Tigers at Comiskey Park tonight where Edwin Jackson matches serves with Max Scherzer. Jackson take the mound in great KW form with five walks and 30 strikeouts in his last four starts, going 3-1 in those efforts. He is also 4-2 in his career team starts against Detroit. Meanwhile, Scherzer is winless lifetime in his three team starts against the Pale Hose and just 1-11 in his career team starts during the month of September. With that, we'll stay at home with Chicago here this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on the White Sox.
O.C. Dooley
2 Units Athletics +110
This is a baseball wager where I feel the oddsmakers have made a major statement. After sweeping the White Sox in Chicago, tonight’s home side has built a massive 9-game lead in the American League Central division. What is amazing about the small-market Minnesota Twins is that they are actually in the running right now (88-58) for baseball’s best overall record which is a remarkable accomplishment. It was just last month that Minnesota swept a three-game home series against Oakland, but it is worth noting all 3 of those games were decided by “two or less” runs in margin. Somehow we have a virtual “pick em” spot this evening even though Oakland’s two best pitchers (Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill) were pounded in Kansas City the past two days surrendering a combined 13 runs. One of the reasons for tonight’s pick-em spot is Minnesota’s Nick Blackburn at one point this season was sent to the minor league level due to continued ineffectiveness. Oakland has one of baseball’s highest rated young pitching staffs and they have WON consecutive starts made by Brett Anderson, after dropping 5 in a row. In the past three trips to the mound oft-injured Anderson has proved to the A’s (1.74 ERA) that he is finally healthy. My research indicates that Nick Blackburn (6-16) has had major problems dealing with squads from the American League West. The bottom line is that Minnesota is in a perfect “emotional letdown” spot this evening and the oddsmakers seem to agree
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Braves / Mets Over 7
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Tommy Hanson gets the nod for the visitors; Hanson has had success against the Mets, but I have to point out that he has just one win over his last 13 starts; he's 9-11 with a 3.54 ERA on the year.
And it's important to point out that Atlanta has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of 10 on the road this year when the total is 7 or less.
In the other dugout: Jonathon Niese heads to the hill for the home side; Niese allowed three runs, eight hits and a pair of walks in seven innings, losing for the third time in his last four starts at Citi Field.
He's 9-8 with a 3.85 ERA on the year.
The Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in 5 of 9 games this year as a home dog in the +125 to +150 range.
Bottom line: It's no big revelation that the Braves have struggled on the road this season, and now their playoff hopes could rely on them showing some improvement away from friendly confines; it has the leagues best home record, but is just 31-41 away from Turner Field.
The Mets are hot right now, having won 8 of 11 and after sweeping a four game set over Pittsburgh.
I expect Atlanta to come out and play with a concerted effort tonight; also for the Mets to continue their hot hitting; look for the starters to make an early exit; this number is a little low;
Street Rosenthal
200* Nevada +3
200* Boston RSox
Seabass
200* Nevada
50* S Miss
50* Calgary Under
MASTER SPORTS
5*Arizona Diamondbacks
4*Atlanta Braves
4*Colorado Rockies