Rocketman
4* Houston -115
3* LA Dodgers -125
Teddy Covers
TCU
Tigers Over
Bobby Maxwell
300-Unit Baseball Absolute Lock - COLORADO ROCKIES
The Rockies lost a tough one Thursday night in Arizona, falling 10-9 to the D’Backs, their fourth straight loss and sending them 3 ½-games behind the Giants in the N.L. West race. I’m playing Colorado tonight because this is their chance to climb their way back toward the top of the standings.
The Rockies certainly know how to score runs, with red-hot bats of Carlos Gonzales and Troy Tulowitzki. Colorado has won seven of the last nine meetings with the Giants in Denver and they are 42-20 at home against teams with a winning record, and 43-17 in their last 60 home games.
Jhoulys Chacin (9-9, 3.30 ERA) goes for Colorado and he is 2-0 in his last three outings with a 1.00 ERA. He blanked the Dodgers for eight innings on Saturday in a 12-2 win and he’s allowed two earned runs or less in his last six outings. He’s seen the Giants twice this season and beaten them both times, allowing a combined three runs in 13 innings.
Tim Lincecum (14-10, 3.60 ERA) is on the hill for the Giants and he’s gotten back to his form the last four starts, allowing a combined seven runs in 26.2 innings as San Francisco has gone 3-1 in those four. However, he has dropped his last four in Colorado, including a July 2 outing when he gave up four runs in six innings of a 6-3 loss.
This is a vital series to the Rockies and their playoff hopes. If they can’t sweep or get two of three, they are likely done in their quest of an N.L. West title. Look for the crowd to be in a frenzy and the Rockies’ bats to be on fire.
Play Colorado to take this one at home.
100-Unit Baseball Smart Play - CINCINNATI REDS
Two teams battling for National League playoff spots square off for a key three-game series at Petco Park this weekend as the Reds send Bronson Arroyo (16-10, 3.98 ERA) to the mound opposite Chris Young (1-0, 0.90 ERA).
The Padres fell out of first place in the N.L. West with their loss in Los Angeles on Thursday night. They trail the Giants by half a game while the Red have seemingly wrapped up the N.L. Central title as the Cardinals look like they’ve run out of time.
Arroyo is 10-5 on the road this season and he looked great on Saturday when he held the Astros to one run over six innings, striking out five in the 11-1 victory. Arroyo didn’t look good in his April start against the Padres this season, but his four trips to San Diego, he’s held the Padres to three runs or less each time.
For San Diego, Chris Young is making his second start since coming off the DL. He pitched in St. Louis on Saturday and gave up just one run in four innings of an 8-4 Padres’ win, making just 69 pitches in his comeback outing. He was sidelined since his April 6 start on the road in Arizona, after missing most of the 2009 season with his elbow troubles. He hasn’t pitched at Petco since June 3, 2009 when he allowed three runs in six innings to the Phillies. His only start against the Reds came in 2006 when he gave up three runs in five innings of a 5-4 loss.
The Padres are on slides of 4-10 at home, 5-12 after a loss, 4-13 as favorites and 0-5 on Fridays. Meanwhile, the Reds are on positive streaks of 8-1 as road favorites, 18-8 in series openers and 46-22 as a favorite. With Arroyo on the mound, they are on runs of 11-4 on the road, 14-6 when he pitches a series opener, 5-1 as a favorite and 5-1 against the N.L. West.
Cincinnati is the play tonight as they march into San Diego and take the series opener.
Stephen Nover
100 Dime Rockies
15 Dime SMU
Dave Cokin
Solid Gold - SMU +18
Brewers -1.5
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Tampa Bay (-190) over Seattle
Seattle has lost 31 of the last 38 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have also lost 29 of the last 38 road games when playing in the month of September. Jason Vargas has lost 8 of the last 9 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he has also lost 4 consecutive games when pitching on a Friday.
50* Play Toronto (-175) over Baltimore
Toronto has won 20 of the last 24 games vs. Baltimore at home and they have also won 16 of the last 23 games when playing on a Friday. Brett Cecil has won 12 of the last 14 games when pitching with 5 or 6 days of rest and he is 2-0 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 1.96.
Rich Green
3* TCU Over 54
3* Devil Rays
Great Lakes Sports
3* SF Giants
Jeff Benton
15 DIME SMU
5 DIME PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
5 DIME MARLINS / BREWERS OVER
SMU
Nobody’s a bigger TCU fan that I am – I’m one of the few who would give the Horned Frogs a legit shot to beat ANY team in the country. Certainly, they’ve got all the ingredients, with an explosive offense (guided by a fourth-year starting QB), a ferocious, opportunistic defense and a coaching staff that’s one of the best in the country.
But asking the Horned Frogs to lay THIS kind of price in their first true road game? Against a neighboring rival that’s on an upswing? On national TV? That’s a very tall order, particularly with the way SMU can put points on the board (27, 28 and 35 in its first three games).
In fact, since suffering a 1-4 slump in the middle of last season, the Mustangs have won seven of their last nine games, scoring 26 points or more in every contest (with an average of 31.7 ppg). SMU’s only losses during this stretch were on the road at Marshall (34-31 as a 3½-point ‘dog last November) and Texas Tech (35-27 as a 12½-point ‘dog in the season opener three weeks ago). And since getting pounded 39-14 at TCU on Oct. 3 last year (covering as a 28-point road underdog), the Mustangs have won six of seven home games (only loss was a three-point overtime setback to Navy as a 6-point home pup the week after losing to TCU).
That a June Jones-coached squad is lighting up the scoreboard is no surprise. What is a shock is SMU’s play on defense recently. It has held four of its last five opponents to 21 points or less, including yielding just four touchdowns in its last two games against UAB (28-7 victory) and Washington State (35-21, with Wazu getting a garbage TD with 1:50 left in the game).
Make no mistake: This will be SMU’s biggest challenge of the entire season – the Horned Frogs are THAT good. But I trust that Jones has spent the last few weeks prepping for this contest, which not only is important in that it’s a rivalry game against an opponent that resides 30 miles away, but it’s even bigger from a recruiting perspective (obviously, there’s a boatload of high-school football talent in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and Jones would like to impress them).
The Mustangs are on ATS runs of 4-0 as an underdog, 5-1 as a double-digit pup, 7-3 as a double-digit home pup and 4-1 after a non-cover (they failed to cash as a huge favorite against Washington State last week). And while they’ve still got a ways to go to be in TCU’s class as a national power, the Mustangs are definitely closing the gap. And keep in mind that because of SMU’s quick-strike offense, the backdoor will be wide open in the fourth quarter.
TCU (2-5 ATS last seven against SMU, all as a big favorite) gets the win, but somewhere in the range of 34-21. Take the points.
PHILLIES
I’m hardly the biggest Joe Blanton fan in the world, but really, who am I to step in front Philadelphia right now? The Phillies ran their winning streak to 10 in a row with Wednesday’s 1-0 win over the Braves, and going back to Aug. 26, Philadelphia is 22-4 overall, including 11-2 at home (with nine straight wins at Citizens Bank Park coming into this one.
Prior to this surge, the Phillies were sitting at 70-57 and trailing the Braves in the N.L. East standings. Now they’re 92-61 with a six-game cushion and a magic number of four. Meanwhile, New York comes into this one having dropped five straight games, and if you take away a four-game home sweep of the Pirates (who are going to set the record for the worst road mark in baseball history), the Mets have dropped six in a row and seven of eight. That includes two losses in three games against the Phillies in Queens two weeks ago.
In fact, Philadelphia has taken six of the last eight meetings overall and six of the last eight clashes at Citizens Bank going back to last September. True, I definitely would rather be backing New York knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (11-7, 2.92 ERA) instead of Blanton (7-6, 5.04 ERA). However, Blanton has been at least decent at home (4-2, 4.40 ERA in 14 starts), and the Phillies are 8-1 in his last nine starts, winning the last five in a row overall and going 6-1 at home. In fact, since being traded from Oakland last year, Philadelphia is 27-11 when Blanton starts at the Bank.
Meanwhile, Dickey’s road numbers (4-5, 3.62 ERA) aren’t nearly as impressive as his home numbers (7-2, 2.09). And one of his worst starts of the season came in Philly on Aug. 8, when he got touched up for six runs (four earned) on eight hits in just three innings, losing 6-5. (Blanton has faced the Mets twice in Philadelphia, going 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA while giving up just two runs in 14 1/3 innings).
MARLINS / BREWERS OVER
If there’s a bigger pitching disaster than Florida southpaw Andrew Miller right now, I have no clue who it is. In his last three starts (two against the Phillies, one against the Cubs), Miller has posted the following pitching lines:
4 innings, 11 hits, 7 runs (all earned), 3 walks
5 innings, 9 hits, 7 runs (5 earned), 3 walks
1 1/3 innings, 3 hits, 5 runs (all earned), 4 walks
I'll do the math for you: That’s 19 runs (17 earned) on 23 hits (including four home runs!) and 10 walks in 10 1/3 innings. And here’s what that equates to: a 14.81 ERA, a 3.19 WHIP, a .349 opponents batting average and a .541 opponents on-base percentage!
If that’s not ugly enough, consider what Miller did in his final three Triple-A starts before being recalled to the big club in September: 15 runs allowed in 15 1/3 innings! Andrew Miller should NOT be pitching in the major leagues, simple as that, and if Florida’s manager leaves this chump out on the mound long enough to hang himself, I have zero doubt that Milwaukee can push this game over the total all by itself (just as the Brewers did two days ago when they destroyed Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto and rolled to a 13-1 home win and just as they did last night when they rolled to an 8-3 win over Florida with a total of 7 1/2).
Not that we’ll need Braun, Fielder, Weeks and the Brewers offense to do ALL the damage. Florida is quite capable offensively (19 runs last four games), and it will be going up against right-hander Mark Rodgers, who will be making his first major-league start (the 24-year-old has pitched in relief twice, tossing two perfect innings).
These teams have hopped over the total in four of five meetings this year – including last night’s 8-3 contest – and nine of 11 going back to last year; the over is 10-3-1 in Florida’s last 14 roadies; and Milwaukee has topped the total in 39 of its last 54 against the N.L. East.
Chris Jordan
100* TCU
National Sports Service
5* TCU
3* Rockies
Anthony Redd
30 Dime TCU
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Colorado
3 Units SMU +17.5
KELSO
25 Units TCU Horned Frogs -17.5
25 Units Colorado Rockies -125
15 Units Minnesota Twins +120
10 Units Cincinnati Reds +110
KIKI SPORTS
1 Unit SMU +18
1 Unit San Francisco +114
1 Unit Texas -105