O.C. Dooley
“2 UNIT” FOOTBALL INTANGIBLE
Nevada +7’ at home versus Missouri
The key to this entire selection has to do with one year ago when Missouri pounded Nevada by a 69-17 count in front of their own home fans. During that blowout Missouri actually RUBBED IT IN with a touchdown pass off a “fake field goal” midway through quarter #3 when the Tigers were already leading by a 28 point margin. You can bet your bottom dollar that Nevada remembers that snub and one can argue that tonight is the most important remaining game on their schedule. So far 2009 has been horrible for the Wolfpack who were forced to open a new campaign with a pair of road games against quality opposition. Nevada already has appeared on National-TV once when they traveled to Notre Dame opening week and promptly got pounded by the Fighting Irish who were out to erase memories of a very poor 2008 effort. Basically the Wolfpack were at “the wrong place at the wrong time” opening week. The real shock was that following a bye week where they did not play, Nevada lost yet again even though being cast as a 5-point road favorite. In week-two the Wolfpack succumbed to a Colorado State squad that was fresh off an upset of rival Colorado which means the Wolfpack once again were at “the wrong place at the wrong time”. It was one year ago when Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick was named the WAC Conference “offensive player of the year” while Vai Tava was the league’s rushing leader. But both of those stars are off to horrible starts just like the entire Wolfpack team who currently is ranked dead-last nationally in turnover ratio. Due to an offense that constantly has turned the ball over, Nevada’s defense has spent too much time on the field and has already surrendered SIX different touchdowns of 25+ yards in length, while opposing quarterbacks are completing 68% of their pass attempts. Despite all of the negatives Nevada has a more VETERAN roster than that of Missouri which makes them dangerous underdogs, especially at home were teams from the west generally have problems luring BCS league-affiliated opponents. Missouri suffered serious graduation losses on both sides of the football including at quarterback where Chase Daniel is now gone. I will admit that new signal-caller Blaine Gabbert currently leads the Big-12 Conference in pass efficiency, but he has had the benefit of facing 3 opponents (Illinois, Bowling Green, Furman) who will not be on National-TV anytime soon. We all so Mississippi fail miserably last night in their first true test of 2009 and Missouri is in the same situation. Nevada has a legendary head coach Chris Ault who in 25 years at the helm has amassed 198 career victories and is very popular figure out west. Nevada just happens to be 10-2 ATS/HOME when the posted total has been between 56’-and-63 points which is the case this evening. Missouri is off a 52-12 whipping of “cupcake” Furman which opens the door to another interesting database angle. Long term Missouri is a horrible 4-14 ATS when off a margin victory of 28+ points which puts them in a “go against” spot late tonight
MustWinSports
5 DIME MISSOURI
Dominic Fazzini
15 Dime -- Missouri (minus points vs. NEVADA)
Missouri isn't as strong as it was last season, but it has been pretty good in starting 3-0 this year, especially in its season-opening 37-9 victory over Illinois.
Nevada, on the other hand, is not as good as many people thought it would be, starting the season with a 35-0 loss at Notre Dame and a 35-20 loss at Colorado State.
The Wolf Pack offense has been sloppy, committing eight turnovers, and quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been erratic, with four interceptions vs. just one touchdown pass.
Nevada has lost four of its last five, and is 0-5 against the spread.
While Missouri is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite, it is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, 7-2 ATS in September, 10-3 ATS on the road, 11-4 ATS in nonconference games, 6-1 ATS in nonconference road games and 11-0 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points.
Missouri also hammered the Wolf Pack 69-17 at home last year, easily covering as a 26-point favorite.
The Tigers' next game is at home against rival Nebraska, which normally would make me hesitant in taking them in this spot. However, that game isn't until Oct. 8, which should prevent Missouri from looking ahead. Take the Tigers to cover the points tonight in an easy victory.
ATS
3 Units Nevada
Fairway Jay
20* GOY - Nevada
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St. Louis vs. Colorado
Play: 4* St Louis
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St Louis is 89-64 overall this year while Colorado comes in with an 86-67 overall record on the season. St Louis is 8-1 last 3 years as a road favorite of -145 to -175. St Louis bullpen has a solid 3.59 ERA on the road this year. The Cardinals send their ace Chris Carpenter to the mound where he is 16-4 with a 2.34 ERA overall this year. Carpenter is 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA on the road and 1-1 with a 2.74 ERA his last 3 starts. Aaron Cook is 0-3 with a 12.20 ERA his last 3 starts. Carpenter is 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA overall vs Colorado since 1997. Cook is 1-4 with a 5.56 ERA overall vs St Louis since 1997. We'll play St Louis for 4 units tonight!
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Missouri vs. Nevada
Play: Missouri -7
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Cannot ignore what Mizzou did last year to Nevada in Columbia, 69 points total in a blowout. Missouri has the speed on defense to contain the Pistol attack. The Wolfpack have long been known to have a high octane attack, not this year, just 10 ppg and Notre Dame who is average at best, shut them out and steamrolled them in week 1. I would stack Mizzou up against Notre Dame any day. QB Gabbert for Mizzou a solid triggerman at a 68% completion rate (8 TDs, No picks) and while this is a dangerous spot for the Tigers, it is a must win scenario with big games on deck with Nebraska and then Okie State and Texas down the road. Mizzou pounded a decent Illinois team and allowed just 9 points to the Illinois attack with a far more dangerous. The Wolfpack QB has already thrown 4 picks on the season and their offense is average at best. Defense, offense, coaching, depth, talent at skill positions all favor Mizzou…plus the Tigers have covered 10 out of their last 13 road games...they win by 14.
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Play 1 Unit on Missouri
Executive
200% Nevada
Teddy Covers
Missouri / Nevada Over 60.5
Guru
12* Missouri -7
Scott Rickenbach
KC Royals GOY