Bob Akmens
Yankees
Orioles
Mike Lineback
4* Mets / Astros Under 7.5 POD
Bob Balfe
New York Jets -3
The Giants seem very bitter that they are not the talked-about team in New York this year. The GMEN have been talking all kinds of trash and really have been intimating that they are looking forward to this game. The Jets, on the other hand, are not talking much trash and are acting like this is just another preseason game.
Regardless, the real key is the talent differential. Can the Giants run the ball? Can their defense stop anybody? Will the new punter force the defense into huge holes? The Jets almost made it to the Super Bowl and reloaded with new talent. This line went from Jets -1 to Jets -3. The Giants might indeed want to win this game more, but the truth is they don't have the talent or the depth. Take the Jets in an easy win tonight.
Baltimore Orioles -132
Bergesen pitched a gem in his last outing and you have to be impressed with the way Baltimore has been playing. This team could easily have given up after the All-Star break but instead chose to not quit and compete night in and night out. The Mariners are not good on the road and, without any offense, shouldn't pose a remote threat to the Orioles. Take Baltimore.
Great Lakes
5* GOY - Tampa
Tony George
NY Jets -2.5
Rex Ryan went 3-1 in the preseason last year and word is he likes to win, ALL THE TIME. That being said QB rotation is crucial and the Jets are deep and talented and the Giants coaches must be nervous because their QB rotation stinks after Manning and the Jets are loaded with experience. Jets starters to get a full quarter and with the Jets stressing defense and their depth at skill positions far deeper than that of the Giants, I see another Jets win tonight in their new joint home. Play 1 Unit on the NY Jets.
Jeff Benton
15 DIME NEW YORK JETS
5 DIME SAN DIEGO PADRES
Well aware of all the distractions the Jets are dealing with as the Derrelle Revis contract standoff drags on. But I’m also well aware that the balance of power in this rivalry has shifted heavily in the Jets’ favor. After a 9-7 regular season and a stunning journey to the AFC championship game in 2009, the Jets made a lot of noise in the offseason with such acquisaitions as RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Santonio Holmes.
Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a very disappointing 8-8 campaign. After jumping out to a 5-0 start, Tom Coughlin’s troops completely fell apart, and the main problem was defense. After holding four of their first five oppoenents to 17 points or fewer (and an average of 14.2 ppg), the Giants got torched for 40 or more points in five of their final 11 games, giving up an average of 32.4 ppg.
The Giants made wholesale changes on defense to plug the leaks, but I highly doubt we’ll see any major strides in this preseason opener. On the flip side, the Jets led the NFL in scoring defense (14.8 ppg), total defense (252.3 ypg) and passing defense (153.7 ypg) last year. Yes, Revis had a lot to do with that, but he wouldn’t have played much (if at all) in this game if he were in camp anyway.
Finally, before making any preseason wager, you must first look at the quarterback rotations. No question the Giants have the edge under center when it comes to the starters (Eli Manning is better and more experienced than Mark Sanchez). However, backing up Sanchez are two veterans in Mark Brunell and Kellen Clemens (Clemens has been in the Jets’ system his entire career). Behind Manning are career backup Jim Sorgi (who held the clipboard for Peyton Manning for several years and is the main reason the Colts had a terrible preseason record over the past half decade) and Rhett Bomar.
That’s a HUGE advanrage for the Jets, especially when you consider this: Manning (and most of the Giants’ other starters) never plays more than two or three series in the preseason opener, while Jets coach Rex Ryan has said Sanchez and his starters will play well into the second quarter. Lastly, the Jets went 3-1 ATS in Ryan’s first preseason last August, while the Giants are 4-6-2 ATS over the past three summers (1-3 ATS last year). The Jets have also taken the last three preseason meetings in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS).
Padres
Hate to sound like a broken record, but here we go again with the Padres being disrespected by the oddsmakers. How in the world can a team with the best record in the National League (69-47) – a team that just took two of three at San Francisco, which had been red hot – barely be favored against an opponent that’s 18 games under .500 and has lost 14 of 18 overall?
Seriously, you know how big of a discrepancy there is between the Padres and Cubs this year? San Diego has been the best money team all season and is currently up nearly 27 units of profit. The Cubs are dead last on the money list, with bettors down nearly 28 units. That means if you bet $100 on every single Padres game this season, you’d be up nearly $2,700. If you bet $100 on every single Chicago game, you’d be down nearly $2,800.
Now, I know there are some who believe San Diego is in a bad letdown spot here coming off that huge series against the Giants (who were nipping at the Padres’ heels and could’ve taken over first place in the N.L. West with a sweep). Frankly, that letdown possibility is the only reason this is a 5 Dime selection. Because all other factors point squarely in favor of San Diego.
The Padres have won six of their last seven games, allowing just 14 runs during this stretch. They’re also on insane runs of 21-5 against the N.L. Central and 23-7 against losing teams. Meanwhile, Chicago stole the final two games of a weekend series at the Cardinals (their archrivals) after previously losing 14 of 16 contests, including five of six at home. And while the Padres’ pitching staff continues to kill it, the Cubs have surrendered five runs or more in 12 of their last 18 games, including five of their last six. San Diego’s team ERA in its last 10 games: 2.12. Chicago’s team ERA in its last 10 contests: 5.08.
The Padres have the edge on the mound tonight, too, with Kevin Correia (4-1, 3.60 ERA last five starts) going up against Tom Gorzelanny (0-1, 5.59 ERA last three starts, all Cubs losses). And while San Diego is 14-8 when Correia pitches this year (6-3 on the road), Chicago is 6-11 behind Gorzelanny (3-6 at home). Throw in the fact that San Diego has won 12 of Correia’s last 15 road starts dating back more than a year, and this is a no-brainer!
Dwayne Bryant
Texas -107
It's worth a look any time we can get Cliff Lee at such a short price. Lee faced the Rays twice in May as a member of the Mariners. He pitched well enough to win both games, but Seattle lost both contests. I think the third time is the charm for Lee tonight. Longoria, Crawford, Upton & Zobrist are a combined 6-for-29 (.207, NO homers) against Lee over the last five years.
Doesn't matter how you slice it (home, road, day, night), Lee owns a sub 3 ERA. And the guy just does NOT walk batters. Lee has a season total of SEVEN unintentional walks in 161.1 innings. That is HUGE in any contest, but especially tonight against a guy who WILL walk some batters. I also like that Lee is coming off an outing in which he allowed 4 runs against the Yankees. He had four other starts this season where he allowed 4 runs or more and he did not allow more than 2 runs in the start that followed, which bodes very well for tonight.
David Price has been almost as good as Lee this season, with one big exception: Price will walk some hitters. And those extra runners will likely be the difference tonight. Price has walked 23 batters in 70.2 home innings and 38 in 87 nighttime innings. He has also had his share of struggles against Texas. Price faced Texas three times last season and allowed a total of 14 runs on 12 hits and 10 walks in just 13.1 innings. That's a 9.45 ERA and 1.65 WHIP! Price was given a couple extra days of rest, and history shows that this might not be a good thing for him. Price owns a 5.15 ERA in seven career starts on six days' rest.
Bottom line: Two great teams and two great pitchers go head-to-head tonight, but I have to give the edge to Lee & the Rangers based on: 1) The extra runners Texas should have due to Price walking more batters than Lee; 2) Price's struggles against Texas, as mentioned above; and 3) The extra rest for Price, which has proved to throw him off his game. I'll take Texas & Lee.
Lenny Del Genio
Toronto/Oakland Under 7
Marcum takes the mound for the Jays tonight as they open a 3-game series in Oakland. They managed to win two of three this past weekend despite scoring only 9 runs. The A’s are fading fast after getting swept in Minnesota this weekend. Oakland can’t do anything at the plate right scoring only five runs in those three games against the Twins. Oakland starts Anderson tonight and although he’s been on the DL twice this season he’s been very consistent in his nine starts with a 2.88 ERA and impressive 1.060 WHIP. Marcum was beat up in his last two outings but those were against the Red Sox and Yankees. The Jays will be facing a lefty for only the 25th time this season and it’s been a nightmare as they are hitting only .209 against these southpaws which is 41 points lower than their season average. Marcum faced these weak hitting A’s once this season and it was a good outing going 6 1/3 innings and allowing only one earned run. This will be Toronto’s first time facing Anderson. The A’s are a perfect 12-0 Under in August. Also, there’s a very good system that is to play on the under when the total is 7-8.5 runs, you have a team batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games (Oakland), and they’re facing a pitcher that has an ERA of 7.00 or more in his last three starts (Marcum) this situation is 34-8 under over the last three years.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
6* Houston -110
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the home side:
Jonathon Niese heads to the hill for the visitors; Niese has pitched decently of late, but is just 3-3 over his last nine starts as his bullpen has continually let him down.
He's 7-5 on the year with a 3.50 ERA.
Keep in mind though that the Mets are just 3-10 their last 13 on the road; also just 5-5 (-0.6 units) on the road with a money line in the -100 to -125 range.
In the other dugout: Wandy Rodriguez gets the nod for the home side; Rodriguez is a sparkling 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA over his last nine starts; he's 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in three starts at home vs. the Mets.
Houston is 4-2 its last six overall; 9-2 its last 11 in front of the home town crowd; 17-13 (+8 units) vs. left-handed starters.
Bottom line: Houston and Rodriguez have been red-hot at home and I look for them to build off that tonight; New York is coming off a listless 3-1 defeat last night after getting blanked 4-0 the day before by the Phillies;
STEPHEN NOVER
100 DIME Houston Astros and Rodriguez over the New York Mets.
and Niese in a game that goes at 8:05 Eastirn at Minute Maid Park. You must specify both schedusled starting pitchers in this contest; any change would result in the play being voided. As I release this selectson at 12:30 AM Eastern, the Astros are between pick-em and -110 in Las Vegas and offshore.
Everything lines up perfect for the Astros in this matchup, including the price.
On paper, this looks like a pick'em type game with southpaw Jon Niese opposing Wandy Rodriguez. But the Astros have many edges despite the Mets owning a better record.
New York hasn't been playing well, dropping 20 of its last 30 games. The Mets have scored only 28 runs in their last 13 games, an averige of 2.1 runs per game. New York is 22-37 on the road this season, losing 19 of their last 26 away from Citi Field.
The Astros have been bad on the road, but are a respectasble 30-31 at Minute Maid Park. They are 17-13 versus lefties this season, which makes sense since their best hitters are right-handed. The Astros have won the past five times they've faced a southpaw at home.
Houston did some housecleansng at the trade deadline. The result is the Astros are loose, relaxed and their young players are performing well. They don't have nearly the pressure and media scrutiny the Mets have.
Houston is 4-2 in its last six games, having just swept Pittsburgh. The Astros have also won nine of their last 11 at home.
This is a bad situational spot for the Mets. They just lost to the Phillies at home Sunday night in a key nationally televised divisional matchup and now have to fly out for this game in a depressed state. The Astros played a day game at home on Sunday and this is game seven of a 10-game homestand.
The Mets are 2-5 in Niese's past seven road starts. The youngster is having a good season, hence the near pick'em price, but the Mets are concerned Niese is about to hit the wall. He's already thrown 126 innings; His previous major league high was 25 2/3 innings pitched last year.
Rodriguez started the year slow, but has come on strong. He's 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA in his past nine starts. Rodriguez always has been a strong home pitcher at Minute Maid Park; he's 6-5 there this season with a 3.00 ERA.
Rodriguez is at the top of his game right now allowing just two earned runs during his past four starts spanning 28 1/3 innings. During these four starts, he's given up only 19 hits with a 32-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
ANTHONY REDD
50 DIME NY Jets over the Giants. between -2 1/2 and -3 points
20 DIME NY Jets in the 1st Half against the Giants as well. The Jets are -1 to -1 1/2