Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday, August 29,2011

Wunderdog

Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins GM 2

Tonight I’m backing the visiting Marlins and Ricky Nolasco in game two of this doubleheader. Nolasco has a winning record on the road and faces a New York Mets team going nowhere, one that is favored here but has lost six of the last nine games. They are also 0-2 in their last two times as a favorite. The Mets go with Dillon Gee, who started the season hot, but has since cooled off. He has a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts, walking 11 in 15 innings! The Mets are 17-26 in home games against right-handed starters this season, while Florida is 14-9 in road games against division opponents this season. Nolasco has already faced the Mets this season and has a 2.57 ERA against them. Also, over the last two years, the Marlins are an impressive 18-8 on the road when Nolasco starts. Play the Florida Marlins in Game 2 tonight.

Wunderdog

3 Units Tampa Bay / Toronto Under 8.5
2 Units Tampa Bay +135

Tampa Bay has been getting it done with pitching and defense, riding a 9-3-1 run UNDER the total. Tonight we have a pair of talented, young arms are on the hill. Ricky Romero is 4-3 when starting against the light-hitting Rays with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.068. The Jays are also 5-3 UNDER the total in those eight games. Romero has been on a red-hot roll, with a 2-0 record and a sizzling 1.64 ERA his last three starts. He has faced the Rays for 22 innings this season and has a 1.64 ERA against them, fanning 23 with 7 walks and only 9 hits allowed, so he has this team’s number. At least the Rays can counter with a strong arm of their own in Wade Davis, who has a 2.82 ERA his last three starts, averaging 7+ innings. For his career he has a 2.93 ERA against Toronto as well. I can’t see many runs being scored in this pitcher’s duel. Play the UNDER. In addition, the Rays are the dog here but offer great value. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in the last 10 starts made by Wade Davis, allowing 3 runs or less in seven of those starts. Tampa Bay is 25-14 (+12.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season, and 43-19 when playing against a team with a losing record. The Rays have really owned this series because of their pitching and defensive edges, going 10-4 (+5.6 Units) against the Blue Jays this season. Play Tampa Bay.

2 Units Kansas City +155

Kansas City is a big dog here, but this offense is good, ranking No. 12 in runs scored, No. 6 in batting average and No. 9 in on-base percentage. They are 3-3 over the last six games despite being a dog in all six, winning as a dog of +152, +185 and +160. Starter Luke Hochevor has respectable numbers, giving up 170 hits in 170 innings with a solid 101-54 strikeout to walk ratio. He has been on a terrific strikeout tear, fanning 29 his last five starts in 32 innings. The Royals are 5-4 in his career against the Tigers, too, while Detroit is just 4-4 when Max Scherzer goes against the Royals. It’s a tough situational spot for the Tigers, home from a seven-game road trip that ended yesterday with an 11-4 loss at Minnesota. Detroit has looked tired in these spots, losing 9-6 at home to Minnesota as a -140 favorite following their last long road trip, and losing 12-7 at home to the Angels as a -130 favorite after coming from a trip. Play the Royals.

2 Units Florida +105 GM 2

Tonight I’m backing the visiting Marlins and Ricky Nolasco in game two of this doubleheader. Nolasco has a winning record on the road and faces a New York Mets team going nowhere, one that is favored here but has lost six of the last nine games. They are also 0-2 in their last two times as a favorite. The Mets go with Dillon Gee, who started the season hot, but has since cooled off. He has a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts, walking 11 in 15 innings! The Mets are 17-26 in home games against right-handed starters this season, while Florida is 14-9 in road games against division opponents this season. Nolasco has already faced the Mets this season and has a 2.57 ERA against them. Also, over the last two years, the Marlins are an impressive 18-8 on the road when Nolasco starts. Play the Florida Marlins in Game 2 tonight.

2 Units San Diego +1.5

The two worst teams in the NL West meet here. The Dodgers’ nice run ended yesterday with a home loss as a favorite, which shouldn’t surprise anyone as this team has a losing record both home and away. The offense ranks No. 26 in baseball in runs scored and No. 25 in slugging, plus the Dodgers are 13-21 (-11.5 Units) against the moneyline in home games after a loss this season. San Diego is a nice dog with ace Mat Latos on the hill, who has a 2.84 ERA his last three starts. He has had a great second half of the season giving up 3 runs or less in 10 starts since July 3. Latos has pitched better than both his record and ERA would indicate this season. He has an ERA of 3.74, with a solid strand rate of 69%. Despite a skid the last few days, the Padres still have a winning record over the last nine games, and they wheel-out their ace here against a terrible offensive team, so they can steal a win or keep this real close. Play the Padres on the runline.

Today's Picks

Oakland Athletics +116

Chuck O'Brien

50 Dime Jets / Giants Over 35

Chris Jordan

200* Jets -3

KELSO

10 Units Jets -3

Derek Mancini

30 Dime Oakland A's

Keith Glantz

100* Indians

Bob Balfe

Reds / Phillies Over 9

The Reds are great against left-handed pitching and will be facing Cole Hamels who is working his way back from the DL. The Reds have been "red" hot this past week and should put up a good number of runs. The Phillies have been hitting the ball pretty well and will get runs of their own. I think this is a very, very valuable line. Take the Over.

Larry Ness

8* Tigers -165

Teddy Covers

Rays / Blue Jays Under

ATS Winners

5* NY Jets / NY Giants Over 35

Vic Monte

2000* Tigers

Black Widow

Indians