These were plays before game location was changed.
Sixth Sense
Opinion
NY Giants -3 MINNESOTA 43
The Giants jumped out to a huge lead over Washington and never looked back. They out rushed the Redskins, 5.5ypr to 4.6ypr, out passed them 6.4yps to 5.5yps and out gained them overall, 5.9yppl to 5.3yppl. NY force six Washington turnovers. The final numbers are skewed somewhat because Washington threw the ball 23 more times while the Giants ran the ball 20 more times. Minnesota overcame four turnovers by forcing five themselves on their way to an easy 38-14 win over Buffalo. The Vikings out rushed Buffalo 210-84 and 5.3ypr to 3.7ypr. They out passed them 7.4yps to 6.0yps and out gained them overall, 6.0yppl to 4.9yppl.
New York averages 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Minnesota averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl.
Minnesota qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 160-91-11. Numbers favor the Giants by 1.5 points and predict about 38 points. Minnesota is playing better since the coaching change but their two wins have come against Washington and Buffalo. The Giants are on a different level. A level Minnesota has struggled against this year. Favre will very likely miss this game. Tavaris Jackson would start and he threw three interceptions against Buffalo last week. Vikings will probably also miss Percy Harvin and have injuries on defense as well. The Giants aren’t completely healthy but they may get their two best wide receivers back this week along with one of their starting offensive lineman. Giants are the better team so I have to lean that way. NY GIANTS 23 MINNESOTA 17
Jimmy Moore
5* New York Giants -3
Minnesota may be off of a couple of wins but this team is still a mess, they got those wins over Washington and Buffalo - the going will be much more difficult against the Giants. Favre is very questionable and it is doubtful he or Jackson will have any success against the viscious Giants defense. New York needs this game big time for playoff reasons and Minnesota has a Monday nighter against Chicago up next which will have their attention much more than this game. Take the Giants to get the win and cover.
Wunderdog
Minnesota Vikings +3
DOUBLE DRAGON
NY GIANTS -3
Street Rosenthal
*200 New York Giants -3
Rocky Sheridan
5* Baltimore Ravens -3
SIXTH SENSE
3% HOUSTON +3
Baltimore -3 HOUSTON 46
Baltimore was one first down away from putting away the Steelers last Sunday night but a costly sack and fumble opened the doors for Pittsburgh and they took full advantage in their 13-10 win at Baltimore. The Ravens only allowed 2.3ypr but gained just 2.2ypr themselves. They threw the ball better than Pittsburgh at 6.1yps to 5.7yps and out gained the Steelers 4.7yppl to 4.4yppl. Houston played relatively well at Philadelphia last Thursday night but came up short 34-24. They out rushed the Eagles, 4.2ypr to 4.0ypr, were out passed 8.9yps to 8.5yps but out gained the Eagles overall, 6.7yppl to 6.6yppl.
Baltimore averages 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Houston averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.6yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl.
Houston qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 136-71-5 and 392-252-18. Numbers favor Houston by .5 point and predict about 44 points. No question Baltimore brings the better defense in this game and that is a concern for me but at least Houston is getting points in this game. But, I also feel Baltimore is slightly overrated as their offense is below average and their defense is slightly above average. Baltimore is slightly better in the match ups but being on the road evens that out. No question Houston is struggling but Baltimore hasn’t exactly lit it up on the road either. They have won by one over the Jets, lost at Cincinnati, won by three at Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger, lost by three at NE and lost by five at Atlanta. I don’t count the Carolina game seeing they are terrible this year. Normally I wouldn’t consider a defensive team like Houston in this situation but the situations and the value say otherwise and Houston came through for me at the Jets a few weeks ago. The Ravens haven’t scored more than 21 points on the road other than their game at Carolina, where the defense chipped to help them score. HOUSTON 24 BALTIMORE 21
Maddux Sports
10 Units Texans
DOUBLE DRAGON
RAVENS -PK (-140)
Wayne Root
No Limit - Texans
Millionaire - Minnesota
Chip Chirimbes
Houston Texans
Bobby Maxwell
NY Giants -4
Don Wallace Sports
3* Hornets +11
3* Blazers +3.5
3* Mavericks -8.5
DAVID MALINSKY
4* CHICAGO / INDIANA UNDER 191
From the start of the season we have been writing about the expected changes in Chicago under Tom Thibodeau, one of the best defensive minds in the NBA, who also has the personnel to play well on that end of the court. Over the past week that has fully come into focus. The first couple of games with Carlos Boozer in the lineup showed some ugly moments, but on December 5th they finally had their first day off at home since he joined the lineup. Since that day we are seeing numbers that bring a lot of significance, and while the markets are enamored by the Bulls overall in the 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS run since then, we see something even more pertinent concerning the Totals – those four games played Under by counts of 12.5, 25.5, 25.5 and 14.5, for a collective 78, or 19.5 per outing. It was a tribute to stifling Chicago defense, allowing just 87.3 points per game on 39.2 percent shooting, and that includes outings vs. the explosive Lakers, who were held to their lowest output of the season, and Thunder. We see more of the same tonight, given the Pacer patterns in these settings.
Chicago’s defensive strides are only half of the story here. While the Bulls have taken a leap from #10 on our best defensive ratings LY to the current #5, Indiana has made a similar improvement, climbing from #15 to #9. The Pacers have a formidable presence inside with Roy Hibbert, along with getting excellent ball pressure from Darren Collision, and the fact that that they have been winning games has them buying in to the concepts on that end. They have played 7-1 to the Under in their last eight outings as road underdogs, and with Danny Granger not at full health (he made the trip, but may not play), they know their best chances to win tonight are to slow things down and turn this into a grinder.
Teddy Covers
Ravens
Florida Atlantic
Chris Jordan
Baltimore -2.5
Andy Iskoe
Ravens at Texans
Pick: Texans +3
Baltimore lost a tough physical game to Pittsburgh last week but at 8-4 is still in pretty good shape to make the Playoffs. Houston is 5-7 after losing 5 of 6 and pretty much needs to win out to perhaps have a shot at winning the AFC South. They do have extra rest following last Thursday’s competitive loss at Philadelphia and should be primed for a good effort on the national stage. The Ravens are just 3-3 on the road with two of the wins by a single point and a FG. The Ravens do have the better defense but it’’s not as dominant as in recent seasons. In fact Houston is allowing just 3 rushing yards more per game than Baltimore and have the edge on a per carry basis (3.9 vs 4.0). The Texans’ pass defense is a concern where they rank last in the league. But playing at home should negate that deficiency. And the Texans have a balanced offense that is capable both at running (# 7) and passing (# 10) the football. This is Houston’s last gasp to stay in the Playoff hunt.. An upset should not surprise.
Ben Burns
10* Houston Texans.
10* Giants / Vikings Under
6* San Jose Sharks
Derek Mancini
15 Dime Texans
While a huge majority of bettors are expecting the Steelers to bounce back here, I disagrae. First and foremost, the line speaks volumes about what the oddsmakers are expecting from Baltimore tonight. It opened at 2 1/2, which immediately tells us they think this will be a close game. Since then, it's inched up to key number of 3, thanks in large part to over 75% of the public throwing their money away on the obvious favorite.
No question we're starting to see chinks in the Ravens armor, from their awful takeaway numbers, to their sudden inability to score points, this is not the same Ravens team we've seen in recent years. Ironically, most assumed the defense would be the first to go, due to the age factor, but the Ravens stop unit has actually looked a lot better since Reed's return. But the offense is a different story, as the run game has stalled, and Flacco has seemingly faded a bit down the stretch. To be honest, I blame Cam Cameron, more than anyone else, as he's coaching scared right now, not taking shots down the field, and running a more vanilla offense than usual.
So why the Texans here? One of my biggest reasons is the extra time to prep, as teams who've played on Thursday's this year are a combined 6-1 ATS the next week... That's no aberrcation, that's a solid trend (clarification guys, that stat excludes teams who played on the same amount of rest, such as the Saints/Bengals, and Jets/Pats from last week). Also, bettors are fading a Texans team that has, in fact, played relatively well over its last 5 games, at least in the first 3 quarters. Houston has not only lost by an average of just 6.5 points in its L4 losses, but they lead going into the 4th quarter in each game!
Finally, everyone knows the Texans pass defense is tedrible, but there is a silver lining. Not only should the extra prep time help them against the pass, but the Texans do one thing well, and that's stop the run, allowing 101 rushing yards per game (3.9 ypc, which is lower than the Ravens 4.0 ypc). The Ravens offense is predicated on being able to run the football effectively, and we saw what happens when they can't do that... Back-to-back ATS losses to the Bucs and Steelers. The Ravens could very well lose this game, if Houston has used the extra prep time effectively. Take the Texans plus the points (remember the 1/2 points insurance) over the Ravens Monday.
Matt Fargo
New York Giants / Minnesota Vikings
Pick: New York Giants
In a rare NFL postponement due to weather, the Giants and Vikings game was rescheduled until Monday in Detroit. Many will say this is an edge for Minnesota and its quarterback situation but in my opinion this is a huge break for the Giants. With about 20 inches of snow falling in the Twin Cities area and the closing of the airport, the Giants' charter flight was diverted to Kansas City and the team spent Saturday night there. The move to Detroit meant an easier trip into the venue. According to the New York Daily News, it could've been worse, though, and it nearly was when the NFL was ready to enforce the original kickoff time despite the Giants' scrambled travel plans. As a result, the Giants were planning to wake up at 6 a.m. CT Sunday, board buses in Kansas City at 7:15 AM, and board their charter plane in time for an 8 AM takeoff. They were scheduled to land in Minneapolis at 9 AM and get to the Metrodome by 10 AM, just two hours before kickoff. As for injuries, the league got what it wanted but New York is not at a disadvantage. The extra day was good for the Vikings as it gave Brett Favre an extra day to rest his ailing shoulder and give him a chance to extend his NFL record for consecutive starts but he is still very questionable. However, the postponement may have benefitted the Giants even more as it game receivers Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks an extra day as well and that is huge for the Giants offense. As for the game itself, this is a must win for the Giants and with the switch, it is even more so now. They will have one less day of preparation for their game next week against the Eagles which could be a big issue if they lose this game and sit a game behind Philadelphia in the NFC East. Another benefit is that New York has already seen that the Eagles were winners on Sunday night so the Giants know they will need to leave Minnesota with a victory. The Giants will be looking for some payback as well. In last season’s finale, the Vikings scored the first 44 points en route to a 44-7 victory in which they outgained New York 487-181. Tom Coughlin didn't waste any time bringing up the loss, mentioning it in his postgame speech last Sunday after the Giants' victory over Washington. “Let's just say we haven't forgotten what happened there,” guard Chris Snee told the New York Daily News. “Let's leave it at that.” The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games following a cover in their previous game while also going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following two or more consecutive straight up wins. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS as underdogs this season while also going 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of a field goal or less. New York meanwhile is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite of a field goal or less. Revenge will be sweet Monday night. 10* New York Giants