Pointwise Phone Service
2* Arizona
Gameday Sports
1* San Fran +3
SIXTH SENSE
3% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
Arizona -3.5 SAN FRANCISCO 44.5
Both teams played very good games last week but unfortunately for SF, they didn’t come away with a win. Arizona dominated the Vikings from start to finish. They out rushed the Vikings 113-62 and 4.5ypr to 3.1ypr. They out passed them 8.9yps to 5.3yps and out gained them overall, 7.0yppl to 4.6yppl. The 49ers out played Seattle but costly turnovers and some questionable play calling late in the game that allowed Seattle to get the ball back to kick the game winning field goal did them in. SF out rushed Seattle 4.4ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed them 6.6yps to 4.6yps, including five sacks and out gained Seattle overall, 6.1yppl to 4.2yppl. Arizona has run the ball better as of late but they are still below average running the ball. They do average 6.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is below average allowing 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. SF is average running the ball and well below average throwing the ball at 5.4yps against 6.3yps but have gotten much better since Smith and Crabtree began playing. Overall, on offense, they average 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to play well allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. SF qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 131-68-5 and 558-422-30. Numbers favor Arizona by just one point and predict about 41 points. The seasonal numbers greatly favor Arizona when comparing the two offenses but SF is closer to an average team on offense since Smith took over. The 49ers defense is better. This numbers is a little too high for Arizona based mostly on their success last week against the Vikings. Value with the home dog. SAN FRANCISCO 23 ARIZONA 20
DOUBLE DRAGON
49'ERS +3
Al DeMarco
20 Dime - Arizona
As you know, I went against San Francisco last Sunday, backing Seattle as a one-point home dog against the Niners, picking up an additional 15 dimes for our bankroll when the Seahawks kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired to escape with the 20-17 triumph. But truth be told, I was lucky to get the win because San Fran outplayed the 'Hawks from start to finish, outgaining them in total yards 356-292, but repeated redzone failures and turnovers resulted in missed scoring opportunities that ultimately cost the Niners the game. The irony is that was only the second time in an eight-game stretch where San Francisco had outgained its opponent.
While the Niners were losing again on the road, Arizona was scoring its most impressive victory of the season in a 30-17 upset of visiting Minnesota as Kurt Warner completed 22-of-32 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns. In his last 14 quarters of action, Warner has hit 72% of his passes for 1089 yards and 12 TDs with zero interceptions.
Even more impressive than Warner's outing was the performance of the Cardinal defense as it stuffed Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, holding him to a season-low 19 yards on 13 carries. It also picked off Favre twice and sacked him three times.
This is a revenge game for Arizona as it was upset 20-16 as a 5 1/2-point home chalk in the season-opener for both teams. The Cardinals fell behind by 10 early, rebounded to take a 16-13 lead early in the fourth quarter, but watched Shaun Hill direct a 15-play, 80-yard scoring drive with 7 1/2 minutes to play for the game-winning score. Ironically, the Niners went three-and-out in their other five second-half possessions in that contest.
Arizona basically shot itself in its collective foot in the first go-round, committing 12 penalties for 82 yards while offering spotty pass protection for Warner, who was sacked three times and intercepted twice. While the Cardinals have since rebounded and soared as the season progressed, the Niners are a different team that's taking the field in today's rematch. Shaun Hill is out at quarterback; Alex Smith is in. And the Niners are no longer a running team as they've switched to a spread attack rather than rely just on Frank Gore (22 carries, 30 yards in first meeting) to move the chains.
The Cards have been a great play on the road this year - when Warner has been healthy. In those games, they're 4-0 SU and ATS. At St. Louis, they were up big but once Warner left with an injury they held on for the win but failed to cover. At Tennessee, where Warner was sidelined by a concussion, they lost outright. Still, they're on runs of 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS entering this game in a series where the road team has reeled off 10 straight covers.
You know as well as I that the Niners have been a strong dog play under Mike Singletary, but that is generally with them getting more points than what they're getting tonight. And considering how this team has struggled to get into the redzone of late (10 points at home vs. Chicago, 17 at Seattle) - and how well the Arizona defense has played in recent weeks - I think this is a bargain price to be laying with the Cardinals, who are playing with extreme confidence after knocking off the Vikings last week and have excelled all season on the road when Warner has been healthy.
In terms of Monday night trends, the favorite has taken the cash four of the past five weeks, and road teams are on a 5-3 ATS run. On the other hand, many will point out that San Francisco sports one of the best Monday night home pointspread records around at 19-8-3, but I note that most of those victories came with guys named Montana and Young at quarterback, not Smith. And those Niner teams knew how to exploit redzone opportunities while this year's edition does not.
Don't expect a high-scoring game here, but a solid win by the Cardinals, who do just enough to escape with a 24-17 win in revenge.
Strategy Note:
The price of this game has held steady at 3 1/2 all week long as I release it around 6:00 P.M. Eastern Sunday night. Naturally I want you to buy down the 1/2 point on Arizona - even if the line goes to -4 or -4 1/2.
Tom Freese
Arizona at San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-0-2 ATS their last 8 games as underdogs and they are 7-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The 49ers are 15-5 ATS their last 20 games on Monday Night Football and the Underdog in this series 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings. Arizona is in a 95-55 ATS System that says to go against road teams off an upset loss by 10 or more points as an underdog if they have a winning record. The Cardinals are 7-21 ATS their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +
Minnesota at Utah
Minnesota is 21-8-1 ATS their 30 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60% and they are 7-1 ATS their last 8 games as underdogs. The Timberwolves are 15-7 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 6-1 ATS their last 7 visits to Utah. The Jazz are 6-13 ATS their last 19 games off a straight up win and they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games as home favorites of 11 or more points. The Jazz are 1-6 ATS vs. Northwest Division teams. NBA double digit favorites are just 28-45-2 ATS this year. 10* MINNESOTA +
Brandon Lang
10 DIME - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Simply put, getting 3 1/2 to 4 points in what I feel is a field goal game is the way to go in this game tonight.
Arizona looked fantastic manhandling the Vikings last Sunday night, and now face their division rival by the bay in what has been a very competitive series as of late.
Niners went down to Arizona week one and figured out a way to get the 20-16 win in a game they were dominated in but on the flip side of that the Cardinals were without Boldin or Breaston.
Now at full strength with exception of running back Hightower a big banged up, Arizona looks to continue their late season momentum against a team they are very familiar with.
What makes the underdog tonight very appealing to me is the fact they threw the ball at Seattle 21 of their first 25 plays last week which tells me San Francisco is very comfortable having Smith throw to Davis and Crabtree.
The Niners have been great at home all year long with exception of the Falcons and the Titans, the latter of the two slipping away late in the 4th quarter.
Fact of the matter is the underdog in Arizona Cardinal games this year has gone 9-3 ATS, and that tells me not only do they play down to their competition when favored, they don't put teams away when laying points as well.
I just don't see this home dog not showing up on Monday night and giving the Cardinals all they can handle and if you are going to attack this Cardinals defense, it has to be thru the air because their run defense is just too good.
As always I see these two playing a close game and I see it coming down to a field goal game and with that being the case, value is taking the points.
FREE SELECTION - GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS
Anthony Redd
5 Dime Cardinals
Dave Malinsky
4* Boston Celtics (-7.5) over MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The Memphis Grizzlies have put a nice little run together, getting upsets over Dallas, Cleveland and Miami over the past 10 days to earn some market respect. But at the same time the markets are raising their power rating, they will also start drawing more respect from the opposition as well, and that can mean some excellent opportunities to fade those market adjustments, particularly with a savvy team like the Celtics as the foil. Forewarned is forearmed, and there is no chance of Boston taking the Grizzlies lightly for this one. The mental focus for Boston is the key, because the physical layout is about as ideal as we will find for this kind of game all season. The Celtics will be playing for only the 4th time in 10 days, and have nothing on deck expect non-descript home affairs vs. Philadelphia on Friday and Minnesota on Sunday. There is nothing standing in the way of their full effort tonight, and with Rajon Rondo the only player that even got to a full 30 minutes in Saturday?s 106-80 rout at Chicago, there are fresh legs galore and a hungry attitude, now that they perceive Memphis to truly bring them a challenge. The Grizzlies can have some moments with their athleticism, of course, but when it comes down to basketball execution these teams are miles apart. We get to lay a short number on the road in a matchup that brings us the #1 Defense vs. #28 on our best set of ratings, and the precision of the Boston offense can break this host down for easy shots throughout the course of the evening. That takes Memphis out of the preferred running game off of the defensive glass, and over the course of the evening we will see frustrations set it for a team that falls down hard when they lose, with 11 of their 13 defeats by more than this pointspread.
Jim Feist
15* NBA Blowout
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS at DALLAS MAVERICKS
Take: DALLAS MAVERICKS
The Maverick's Josh Howard has been hampered by a bad ankle much of the young season. Howard returned to face the Suns last Tuesday but was forced to miss the club's last game against Charlotte, a 98-97 OT win. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Hornets (10-12 SU, 9-13 ATS) are coming off a loss at home to New York, 113-96. Like Howard, New Orleans star Chris Paul has been bothered by a bad ankle. Coach Jeff Bower has been limiting his practice so he will be ready for games. "He was kind of limited today and we'll take the same approach tomorrow (Sunday)," Bower said. "We'll try to give him as much rest as we can." The strain of the games might wear on Paul during second halves, as evidenced by his 4-of-14 shooting performance from the field in the loss to the Knicks. One interesting stat in this matchup is that Dallas is 5-0 ATS the last five times they have been favored over the Hornets at home by 8 to 9 1/2 points. Take Dallas here on Monday as our December Game of the Month.
Charlie
500* 49ers+3'
500* Cards @ 49ers Under 46
500* Warriors @ 76ers Over 208
30* 76ers -3'
20* Dallas -8
20* Utah -13
10* Houston -13'
Boston -8 Free Play
Steve Budin
25 Dime Arizona Cardinals
Frank Patron
10000 Unit NFL Lock
Arizona Cardinals -3.5
Power Play Wins
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) Over San Francisco 49ers
Orlando Magic (-12.5) Over Indiana Pacers
Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) Over Golden State Warriors
Boston Celtics (-7.5) Over Memphis Grizzlies
Utah Jazz (-13) Over Minnesota Timberwolves
Washington Wizards (+1) Over Los Angeles Clippers
GEORGIA TECH (-16) Over CHATTANOOGA
HOUSTON (-14) Over TROY
NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) Over FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Ats Lock Club
3 units on Arizona (-3.5) over San Francisco, 8:35pmET