Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday, December 27,2010

SIXTH SENSE

3% ATLANTA -2.5
3% NEW ORLEANS/ATLANTA OVER 48.5

ATLANTA -2.5 New Orleans 48.5

The Saints came up short at Baltimore 30-24 but were dominated worse than the final score. They allowed 208 yards rushing at 5.3ypr to just 1.9ypr for NO. They were out passed 6.4yps to 4.9yps and out gained overall, 5.7yppl to 4.3yppl. Those numbers could have been even worse when you consider NO threw the ball 26 more times while Baltimore ran the ball 25 more times. Atlanta blew out Seattle 34-18 but the overall numbers actually favored Seattle. Atlanta was out rushed 4.3ypr to 2.6ypr, but did out pass Seattle 4.7yps to 4.1yps. Overall, Seattle out gained Atlanta 4.2yppl to 3.6yppl. Atlanta ran the ball 16 more times to water down their overall numbers somewhat.

New Orleans averages 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. Atlanta averages 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl.

Atlanta qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 32-10-2. Numbers favor Atlanta by 1.5 points and predict about 50 points. These two have combined to score at least 44 points in each of the last seven games played in Atlanta. Atlanta, with Mike Smith as head coach, defeated NO 34-20 in 2008 and lost as 10 point dogs last year 23-26 in their home games against NO. Atlanta has been extremely tough at home and although I haven’t felt they are a great team this year, they do the fundamental things necessary to win games. NO lost by three earlier in the year at home to Atlanta. The only team they have faced on the road other than Tampa Bay that is above .500 this year was Baltimore last week and they lost by six in a game they struggled in. But, they can score points and have scored at least 24 points in six straight games (was 30 or more in five straight before last week). But, they will also give up points as they have allowed at least 27 in each of their last three road games. These two totaled 51 points in the first meeting this year and Atlanta has scored at least 26 points in seven of their last eight games (scored 20 against a very good Packers defense). Should be plenty of points in this game and Atlanta does the little things to win games and that gives them a chance to cover when laying less than a field goal. ATLANTA 33 NEW ORLEANS 24