ATS Lock Club
4 Units Green Bay -3
Sirduke Sports
7* Green Bay Packers -3
Pointwise Phone Service
3* GREEN BAY
Sixth Sense
3% GREEN BAY -3.5
GREEN BAY -3.5 Baltimore 43
The Packers played extremely well in their blow out of Detroit last week. They out passed Detroit 8.6yps to 4.4yps and out gained the Lions overall, 6.3yppl to 4.0yppl. They also forced five turnovers. Baltimore to by a Ben Roethlisbergerless Pittsburgh team. A key fourth and five conversion for Baltimore with less than four minutes kept a drive alive and allowed them to tie the game and then win it in OT. They out rushed Pittsburgh 4.6ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed them 6.5yps to 5.6yps and overall 5.7yppl to 4.7yppl. Baltimore averages 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but their pass defense is now average after being below average for most of the season, allowing 6.3yps against 6.3yps. Overall, they allow 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. GB now averages 6.8yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has really played well lately, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. GB qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 27-8-2 and if they are favored by three or less points, they also qualify in a momentum situation, which is 81-38-7. Numbers favor GB by three points and predict about 47 points. GB lost CB Al Harris a couple of weeks ago along with Aaron Kampman. The Harris loss is big but Kampman was really a fish out of water this year in the new 3-4 alignment for GB. Despite those losses, the Packers have done a very good job on defense and continue to get better. Meanwhile, the offense is really hitting their stride right now. They are finally just about completely healthy on offense and that includes finally getting their offensive line in tact. GB has scored at least 24 points in 8 of their 11 games this year. Baltimore hasn’t scored more than 20 points in their last four games. GB actually runs the ball as well as Baltimore, throws the ball better, actually stops the run better and stops the pass much better. All that, with a short number, at home, with a solid situation in their favor make GB worth a shot. GREEN BAY 27 BALTIMORE 17
Double Dragon
Packers -3.5
Maddux Sports
3 Units Green Bay -3
DAVID MALINSKY
4* GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE
We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win
National Sports Service Picks
4* Green Bay -3.5 over Baltimore
3* Portland -4 over N.Y. Knicks
3* Auburn -4 over Virginia
Craig Davis
30 Dime - Ravens-Packers OVER
Forget the side (though I favor the Packers) folks, the best play on the board tonight is the total... and I like it over. Public perception is that we have two of the best defenses in the league facing off on cold night at Lambeau, and 43 points is simply too high. I disagree. I think we have two very dynamic offenses who have "big play" potential every time they are on offense, and it won't matter how good the opposing defense seems to be.
Yes, I agree, defense wins championships, but this isn't a championship game. And if you paid any attention to Monday night games this year, you've seen a ton of high scoring affairs. Aside from a few games here and there, Monday night scores have averaged in the neighborhood of 47 points per game... which puts us over the total by at least a field goal tonight.
Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jermichael Finley and a few others at coach McCarthy's disposal... and those guys have averaged 27 PPG over their last three and 27 PPG for the season, so it's not like they've just recently started scoring points. They can score at any spot on the field, they can score with their defense and they clearly know how to change turnovers into points, whether the defense scores themselves or sets the offense up in good field position.
Baltimore can score in bunches as well, and since they've been kinda quietly offensively lately, you gotta believe the general public is thinking UNDER all the way. But a look at this offense from earlier in the season sees a team that scored 30 or more points in five of their first seven games, including games with San Diego, Minnesota and Denver.
The OVER is 8-2 in Baltimore's last 10 Monday games and 8-2 in their last 10 as a dog. In Green Bay's last 19 home games, the OVER has hit 13 times and it's hit 18 of the last 25 Packers' games when they are listed as the favorite. Sure, there's a small chance the defenses will come to play, but I believe both teams are desperate for a win and will try to light a fire under the offenses' butts on each and every possession. This one could be OVER the number by halftime, so you can understand why I like the over in tonight's contest. Final score is somewhere around 27-24, which puts us easily over the total tonight.
Sportsbets Now
2 Units Ravens +3.5
2 Units Trailblazers -4
ANTHONY REDD
25 Dime Ravens
Rated Picks
Siena: -4.5 5 units
Western Carolina: +7.5 2 units
Baltimore Ravens: +3.5 2 units
Washington Capitals: -140 2 units
Florida Panthers: -110 2 units
Utah Jazz: -1.5 2 units
Brandon Lang
25 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS - (If line is 3 you buy the 12 and get 3 1/2) - I am going to war with the Ravens tonight.
When the Green Bay Packers have been asked to step up and play against the best of the best in the NFL, they have failed miserably.
In their 4 games versus winning teams this year they lost to the Bengals, the Vikings twice and beat the Cowboys, who after their latest implosion at New York, you can throw that win out the window.
The bottom line is the Packers haven't beaten anybody, and I am talking about all year long.
This is a Ravens team playing for their life. Playing for their season and getting more than a field goal in what I feel will be at worst a field goal game is the only way to go in this game.
You get to this point in the season and strength of your schedule means a ton and the Ravens have clearly played a much tougher schedule and that my friends will be the difference.
The Packers have one major problem and it's a problem they have had all year long and it's sacks allowed, 44 and counting which leads the NFL.
Now against a blitzing team like the Ravens against a QB who holds the ball two long it all adds up to a recipe for disaster.
I backed the Packers against the Vikings and lost on Monday night. I backed the Packers at home at Lambeau against the Vikings and lost. They have failed miserably against quality opponents this year.
Anytime you can get this Ravens team +3 or better, you have to take it because it hasn't happened often, and when it does they normally get the money.
They were +3 at Minnesota this year and lost by 2 in a game they should have won but their old kicker couldn't convert from inside 40 yards for the win.
The bottom line is if you look at the Ravens 5 losses this year, you will see just what quality football they have played.
Lost by 6 at New England, 3 at home to Cincinnati, 2 at Minnesota, 10 at Cincinnati and 2 at home to Indy.
This is a very hard football team to blow out let alone cover against and asking the Packers to cover a 3 1/2 number based on their easy schedule not only the last few weeks but for the year is asking too much.
I will go to war with the better team, from the stronger conference, catching more than a field goal, playing for their season.
FREE SELECTION - SETON HALL
Dwayne Bryant
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
The Thunder is a very solid young team. They're coming off an 18-point home loss to Boston, so motivation should be high tonight. They lost ATS by 14 in that one, which brings up a solid situation for this team. There have been three times this season where OKC has lost ATS by double digits. They won and covered the next game all three times. This young, talented team knows how to bounce back and they will do it again tonight. OKC is also 3-1 SU & ATS as a home favorite this season.
If we look at Golden State's road statistics compared to OKC's home stats, then we see several edges for OKC. But the ones that really stand out for me are: 1) Golden State allows 51.3% shooting and 116.6 points per game on the road; and 2) OKC has a home rebounding margin of +3.2 boards per game, while Golden State owns a road rebounding margin of -8.1 boards per game.
The Thunder plays much better defense and should own the boards in this contest. And considering the fact that "defense" is not in Golden State's vocabulary, I expect the Thunder to bounce back tonight with a 12 to 15-point win. Lay the points with Oklahoma City.
Blade,
I'm not sure where you were getting the Maximus Report but on SBR he's been outted as a scammer...just an FYI as I noticed you had started posting.