Teddy Covers
Virgina
Siena
EZWINNERS
3* Ravens
SCORE
300 Ravens
PPP
3% Bradley
3% Denver Nuggets
Triple Threat Sports
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR!
4.5* Green Bay (-) over Baltimore
This comes down, first and foremost, to the way these teams are playing right now. After losing to Minnesota and then Tampa Bay (in a game they dominated statistically), the Packers stood at 4-4. Since then they have won three straight games by at least a touchdown, three of those games against playoff contending teams. In the last two weeks Green Bay has outgained their foes by 484-284 and 422-272 yard counts. This improvement has directly coincided with a return to health on the offensive line and a reduction in Aaron Rodgers sacks. On the other hand, Ravens only wins in the last month have come against the lowly Browns (and that was a close game for 3Q) and the first time starter Dennis Dixon led Steelers, and they barely won that one. The Ravens are 2-5 SU and ATS against winning teams this season, and Green Bay fits that mold. One final tech note is that, not surprisingly for such tough places to play, the home team is 3-0 SU and ATS in this series in the last three meetings. Finally, some system research shows that teams off a divisional home win that are now MNF underdogs are 12-20-3 ATS in the last 35 games, and that system says to fade the Ravens. Additionally, Monday Night home favs of 3-9' are 10-2 ATS if they come in off three straght wins, and of course the Packers fit that one. Look for the Cheeseheads to post a solid win and cover in this one.
Playbook
Baltimore/Green Bay UNDER
Ravens: 4-10 UNDER after Steelers (3-7 UNDER away); and 7-16-1 UNDER away vs NFC opponent.
Packers: 1-4 UNDER last 5 vs AFC; and 3-6 UNDER last 9 home Monday nights.
Jim Feist
5* Monday Night Total Annihilator
BALTIMORE RAVENS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
TAKE: UNDER
Baltimore (6-5 SU/ATS) likes an uptempo offense under QB Joe Flacco (13 TDs, 8 INT) and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron on an offense ranked 13th. But they have stumbled in close games and have scored just 7, 16, 15 and 20 points the last four games. Average margin in wins: 16; average margin in losses: 5. They went back to their stumbling ways in a 17-7 loss at Cincinnati as the offense had 200 total yards while the defense allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of the last five games. The defense is 9th, perhaps missing DC Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott. They bounced back from a 17-15 loss at home to the Colts (settling for field goals on offense while the defense allowed 375 yards) with a big 20-17 overtime win over Pittsburgh Sunday night. It was a huge win, keeping their playoff hopes alive. They are on a 6-3 run under the total. Green Bay (7-4 SU/6-4-1 ATS) has a potent passing offense, ranked 5th in total offense while putting up 27 ppg. QB Aaron Rodgers (22 TDs, 5 picks) has great targets to throw to in WR Greg Jennings, WR Donald Driver, James Jones and TE Donald Lee. Rodgers threw for 348 yards and 3 TDs as the Packers won their third straight on Thanksgiving Day, 34-12, at Detroit. Green Bay played without cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampman, both of whom had season-ending knee injuries in the previous week's win. The defense has struggled against good offensive teams, though they rank second overall in total defense. New GB defensive coordinator Dom Capers has put in fire-zone blitzes with an attacking style. "I like the way we're playing," Capers said after his defense held the Lions to 272 yards and one touchdown. "We're just real close.” After losing at Tampa Bay they held a team meeting and came out focused and fired up in an impressive 17-7 win over Dallas and on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. The three-game winning streak has put the Packers in a favorable position in the NFC wild-card race. QB Rodgers has been sacked a league-worst 44 times this season, including 6 by Minnesota, 6 by Tampa Bay and 4 more by Dallas. Should be a close game tonight and with the Ravens struggling more on offense the will step up to their old selves defensively to keep this one close. Look for this game to go UNDER the total.
Tom Stryker
38-15 ATS Monday Night Power System Play
2* GREEN BAY (-) over Baltimore
Green Bay is locked into one of my best Monday Night NFL systems and I’m going to ride the Cheeseheads straight to the bank. Take a peek at this technical gem.
Since 1980, Monday night non-division home favorites are a remarkable 61-28 ATS provided they check in off a straight up road win. If our host checks in with serious momentum off back-to-back straight up victories, this situation zips to a powerful 38-15 ATS! The Packers apply to both parts of this angle!
With a 16-27 SU and a 17-26 ATS record in its last 43 games, Baltimore has shown a tendency to struggle on the road. Off a straight up win in this role, the Ravens slip to a soft 9-16 SU and ATS! Also, as a guest under the Monday night lights, the Black Birds have hit rock bottom posting a dismal 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS mark.
The Pack close with three of their last five on the road and that makes this home contest essential against the Ravens extremely important. With momentum off three consecutive wins over Dallas, San Francisco and Detroit, the Cheeseheads will cruise to victory. Take Green Bay.
MATT FARGO
9* NFL MONDAY NIGHT GOM *30-13 RUN*
Ever since losing to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been money as they have won three straight games to move right back into the playoff race in the NFC. This run includes a Thanksgiving shellacking against the Lions making this a very favorable spot for Green Bay considering the extra time to rest from that Thursday game. The Lions game also showed Green Bay with a 150-total yard advantage which makes it eight games out of the last nine that the Packers have won the yardage battle. They are 6-3 over that stretch with two losses coming against the division leading Vikings. While Green Bay is in a favorable spot, the Ravens are not. Baltimore is not playing on a short week but it is the next closest thing after playing an overtime game on Sunday night against the Steelers. That resulted in a hard-fought win at home and that does not bode well here. After a 3-0 start to the season, the Ravens are 3-5 in their last eight games and breaking down the schedule shows how average it has been. Two of the wins came against Cleveland while another came against Kansas City and in the last six games, the team that won the yardage battle has won the game and that no doubt favors the Packers as mentioned earlier. The Packers offensive line was a huge concern for most of the first half of the season but the unit has responded very well of late. We have seen more three- and five-step drops, a lot of check downs and quick passes, and throws going to backs and tight ends, and that has limited the amount of sacks quarterback Aaron Rodgers has taken. Baltimore, long known for bringing pressure, has just 21 sacks this season which is tied for 26th in the NFL. That has definitely hurt the passing defense and it has shown against quality quarterbacks. The Packers will need to utilize running back Ryan Grant who is running much better now than in the beginning of the season. With a good running game, Rodgers won't take as many hits, and if they can force the Ravens into some run blitzes, it creates one-on-one matchups and that is where the Ravens struggle the most. Last week Pittsburgh sacked quarterback Joe Flacco five times, hit him seven times and had eight tackles for loss. That showed as Flacco hurt his ankle once again and it is still unclear how bad it is. He is far from 100 percent and he now faces a defense that is second in the NFL, allowing just 281.5 ypg. Green Bay falls into two solid situations. First, play on non-division home teams that are favored by five points or fewer or pickems that are playing on Monday night and coming off a road win. This situation is 20-7 ATS (74.1 percent). Also, play on favorites that are coming off a win against a division rival that playing on Monday night. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent). Green Bay keeps rolling with another big win to stay atop the Wild Card standings. 9* Green Bay Packers
James Patrick Sports
5* Pot of Gold
Ravens vs. Packers
The Packers roll in December home games at Lambeau Field with a (9-1) ATS mark. The Baltimore Ravens just got a taste of the Black & Gold and the teams that play Pittsburgh show how physical the World Champions are on the gridiron as teams off a Steelers game are just (6-19) ATS. Packers are Golden for us here.
3* North Texas Eagles
The Big Green is looking for a 4th consecutive 20 win season with all 5 starters returning from a (20-12) team a year ago which amounts to 74 % of the teams scoring and 75 % of its rebounding. HC Johnny Jones knows his recruiting will get a shot in the arm if his team can knock off a big in-state school the likes of Texas A&M. The Aggies feature an abundance of guards and wingmen, so if the Eagles can hold their own on the boards this will be a game down to the wire.
The King Maker
10* Green Bay -3
Barry Holthaus
Ravens at Packers
Pick: Packers -3
Green Bay has won 3 straight games since a road loss at Tampa. The Packers have had an extra 3 days to rest and prepare for this game since an easy win over Detroit on Thanksgiving. Baltimore has not won a big game all year and were lucky to beat the Steelers last week without their starting QB.
Vernon Croy
Monday Night NBA Slam Dunk (16-8 Overall Run)
3* Take San Antonio
This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems and the Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing with 1 days rest and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Jazz are just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games when playing against a team that has a winning record and the Spurs opponents are shooting just 42.5% against them on the road this season. Grab the points with the Spurs as my NBA Slam Dunk for Monday Night.
Cajun Sports
NFL Monday "Matters" Perfect Angle Winner 16-0-1 ATS
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Selection: 3* Green Bay Packers -3
The Baltimore Ravens make the trip to Lambeau Field for a Monday night affair against the host Green Bay Packers. Both teams are still in the hunt for a wildcard berth but need a win here to keep those hopes alive.
Baltimore is coming off an OT win versus the Pittsburgh Steelers 20 to 17 but failing to cover as a 7.5 point home favorite. They rushed for 132 yards while giving up over 150 yards rushing. Through the air they put up 261 yards on 11.3 yards per pass while their defense allowed 145 passing yards but 12.1 yards per pass. We know that teams having played the Steelers in their previous game and it came during Weeks 9 through 12 are only 1-14 ATS since 2006 in their next game. And this season teams are just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 against the spread after playing the Steelers with five of the losses coming by double digits.
The Ravens have really struggled on offense over the last month failing to put up more than twenty-points in any of their last four games. This has been a very tough stretch for the Ravens and their defense is unable to carry them as they have in years past. Baltimore is 0-8-1 ATS when they failed to score the expected number of points (dps) over their last three games.
The Packers have now won three straight and control an NFC Wild Card spot with a 7-4 SU record. Green Bay completed the season sweep over the Detroit Lions by defeating them on Thanksgiving Day 34 to 12 as an 11 point road favorite. They had defeated the Lions back on October 18th at Lambeau 26 to 0 as a 14 point home favorite and this is important because the Packers are a perfect 8-0 ATS after sweeping a team on the road in their last game.
Green Bay has done a much better job of protecting QB Rodgers the last couple weeks allowing just three sacks after giving up an unbelievable forty-one in their first nine games of the season. Even though Rodgers has been harassed for most of the season they still rank sixth in the league in total offense. The Packers “D” has been the story this season for them as they hold the top spot allowing just 282 yards per game. Not only has the defense put the clamps on the opposing offense they have caused turnovers ranking second in the league in that category.
A check of our situational database reveals two league-wide systems that are active in tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST teams (Baltimore) with a SU win percentage >.500 after Week 5 and a season TO Differential >0 facing an opponent that has a higher TPR and this team’s Season Rush Offense Rating is more than their last three. These Play AGAINST teams have posted a record of 99-235 ATS since 1994, 15-44 ATS the last three seasons and 1-4 ATS this year. Play AGAINST teams (Baltimore) with an Average Spread Margin >+6 last season facing an opponent with a higher season points against average as long as this game is not a divisional sandwich. These Play AGAINST teams are 25-77 ATS since 1994 and 6-17 ATS over the last three years.
Database research has uncovered a league-wide system that is active for this game and it tells us In Weeks 3-16 on, play ON a non-Thursday favorite off a Thursday road non-OT SU win (not as an underdog of more than 9 points) in its last game vs. an opponent not off a favorite SU&ATS win in its last game. 11-1 ATS since 1992
With significant situational and technical support we will back the host here as the Packers continue their solid play and move closer to grabbing a postseason spot. Lay the short price with the Packers at Lambeau on Monday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 3* Green Bay Packers 30 Baltimore Ravens 21
Jorge Gonzalez
10* High Roller MNF Winner!
Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
Play Under: 43
The Ravens and Packers have both been quality defense as of late. The Ravens had one of the most dominating defenses of the decade but were not same unit at the beginning of the season giving up too many yards and points. The defense has tighten up over the last three games giving up just 11.3 points and 277.7 yards. The Packers defense might be the post improved in the league under the direction of first year defensive coordinator Dom Capers. The Packers are giving up 19.5 points per game on the season and just 269.4 points per game. The weather will be very cold in Green Bay and may be a factor in the game. Take the under.