FairwayJay
Green Bay Packers
Sports Bank
400 Balt/GB Over
Payne Sports
7 Units Balt/GB Over
GameBreaker
Baltimore +3.5
I like the Ravens overall and they're a solid team that plays with heart. They have the playmakers on D to make a difference and I'll take them catching more than a FG in this spot. Take Baltimore for a 3* Play.
Roy Jackson
Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
Ravens RB Ray Rice has emerged as a star since he became the starter for the Ravens backfield. The one team that has given QB Aaron Rodgers problems this season has been Minnesota. Well Baltimore’s defense is based on pressuring the QB, just like Minnesota. Rodgers will get his yards, but the Ravens will pressure him into mistakes and expect Ravens S Ed Reed to take advantage of those mistakes. Baltimore’s defense and Ray Rice keep this game close and possibly get the outright win in Lambeau Field.
PLAY: Baltimore Ravens+3.5 5 Units
Rocky Minetti
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Both of these teams are playing way under their potential. The Spurs have lost their last two home games against two of the best teams in the league (Boston and Denver), while the Jazz are coming of a loss to the lowly Timberwolves. Take the Spurs plus the points and rebounding from those two losses.
PLAY: San Antonio Spurs +1.5 4 Units
Harvey Slavin
Calgary Flames vs. Los Angeles Kings
Calgary continues to impress on the road (11-2-1-2) and has beaten the Kings 5 of the last 6 times they met in LA. The Flames remain true to their name having won 5 of their last 6 overall and 4 of 5 on the road. Mikka Kiprusoff has been very good in goal for the Flames (2.21 GAA) so far this season.
PLAY: Calgary Flames 3 Units
Dr Bob
Opinion
GREEN BAY (-3.0) 23 Baltimore 19
Over/Under Total: 43.5
The Packers aren't as good as their good looking stats would lead you to believe, as their 5.9 yards per play on offense and 4.8 yppl allowed on defense have come against an easy schedule of teams that would get out-gained by 0.4 yppl by an average team. The Packers are still better than average on both sides of the ball and they're a bit better overall from the line of scrimmage than a Ravens' squad that is 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.3 yppl better than average on defense. However, Green Bay has the NFL's worst special teams and field position could cost them in this game against a Ravens' team with better than average special teams. My math model only favors Green Bay by 1 1/2 points overall, but the Pack qualify in a very good 41-13-3 ATS Monday night angle that applied to the Saints last week (and to Minnesota over Green Bay in early October (both winners). I'll lean with Green Bay based on the good situation.
Rainman
1* Green Bay
1* Over
Steve Budin
25 Dime Baltimore Crew
Green Bay
If you have -3, buy 1/2 down to 2 1/2, if you have -3.5, buy down to -3.
Al DeMarco
20 Dime - Green Bay
Green Bay has won three in a row (2-0-1 ATS) since that infamous second-half collapse at Tampa Bay that gave the Bucs their lone win of the season. The turnaround began when the Packers stunned the Cowboys, who carried a four-game winning streak into Lambeau, and continued with easy routs of the 49ers at home and the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving. In that stretch, Aaron Rodgers has been superb, completing 71% of his passes for 871 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions, and the defense, led by potential Player of the Year candidate Charles Woodson, has repeatedly come up with big stops.
Back to the Thanksgiving Day rout of the Lions; that game gives the Pack a mini-bye coming into this contest as they get 3 full extra days of prep time to prepare. By comparison, Baltimore is coming off a hard-fought overtime win against a Pittsburgh team minus Ben Rothlisberger last Sunday night at home. The long-term numbers show teams coming off a game with the physical Steelers generally don't fare well the following week as they're 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS over the past couple of years. Even worse, AFC North rivals, such as the Ravens, are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS using the same criteria. Completing the trifecta of ugly stats:
Baltimore is 1-4 SU and ATS in the game after its last five battles with Pittsburgh when its next opponent is a winning team, such as Green Bay.
As I've noted in previous plays - both premium and free - involving the Ravens, this team is not as strong defensively as in past seasons. Ray Lewis is not the young stud he once was, the secondary is not as consistent in its coverage, and injuries have taken their toll along the line. In handicapping this game, the most fascinating item I came across was the fact that Green Bay entered the weekend as the league's No. 1 defense statistically with an average yield of 281 yards per game. Of course they don't play the games on paper and the stat that matters more to me is the one that shows the Packers are 12th in points allowed per game with a yield of 19.5. Still, the implementation of Dom Capers' new 3-4 defense during the offseason has led to a dramatic improvement and the team's young talent is playing much better as the season has progressed.
Defense is important, but ultimately this game will turn on offense tonight, and right now the Packers, who have scored 26+ points in seven of their last nine games, are humming with Rogers and a bevy of strong receivers moving the chains. Compare that to the Ravens, who seemingly move the ball between the 20's, but get bogged down in the redzone. Think about how they struggled to put points on the board recently at home against the Colts, whom they should have beaten, and the Steelers, whom they barely beat in overtime despite Rothlisberger being out. With Joe Flacco having just one TD pass and four INTs in his last four games, and Baltimore only 2-6 SU in Monday night road outings, I'll lay the points with the far more rested home team and call for Green Bay to win 23-17.
Strategy Note:
The price of this game has held steady at 3 1/2 all week long. Naturally I want you to buy down the 1/2 point on Green Bay - even if the line goes to -4.
Commentary:
How many times have I said the breaks always even out over the long run? True, when they're going against you it never seems that way; that much I admit. But case in point again this weekend: I lose the 10 dime college play on Cincinnati on Saturday as the Bearcats, laying 1 1/2 or 2, beat Pittsburgh by 1. However, yesterday I have a 15 dime play on Seattle and the Seahawks, despite getting outplayed most of the game at home by San Francisco, escape with a field goal in the closing seconds to score the 20-17 win as a one-point home dog.
Win the 15 dime play and lose the 10 dimer? Fine with me.
And don't even ask if I care that I went 1-3 with my free picks yesterday because I didn't bet any of them, including the best bet free pick on the Broncos. Oh, and don't for a second think I had any laments about not using Denver as a premium play on Sunday after the Broncos crushed KC and I had a sweat job with Seattle. I don't celebrate the winners or lament the losers; I certainly don't second-guess myself either. And the last thing you need is a handicapper who plays Monday morning quarterback with his own picks.
Over the past two years, I'm 7-1 with all my Monday night releases rated 15 dimes or higher. This is my second 20 Dimer of the season; my first was Dallas over Carolina in Week Three.
Tonight's play is stronger than Sunday's third straight 15 dime winner on Seattle, and I'm 19-5-1 the past two seasons combined with those 15 dime releases.
Thanks to Seattle's win yesterday, part of a 4-0 NFL sweep the past two weeks and a 40-22 NFL roll over the past two years that's produced 339 dimes of profit, I find myself in the favorable position of being able to press the action tonight on a game I really like while playing with someone else's money. And I can't ask for anything more than that.