Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Oregon / Auburn Under
BIG AL
Oregon
DOUBLE DRAGON
HYDRA - AUBURN -2.5
Al DeMarco
30 Dime Auburn -2
Gameday Sports
1* Oregon
Maddux Sports
10 Units Oregon +1.5
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion
Oregon 40 Auburn (-2.5) 36
The only reason Auburn is favored in this game is because they’re an SEC team and most people are under the impression that the SEC is the best conference in the nation. Normally that is the case but this season the Pac-10’s average team rating was the highest in the nation. The SEC has the highest average margin of victory in non-conference games at +20.2 points, but the average opponent in those 57 non-conference games (including Bowls) is 6.5 points worse than an average Division 1A team (so the SEC is 13.7 points better than average in non-conference games). The Pac-10, meanwhile, had a scoring margin of +14.2 points in their 34 non-conference games, but the average opponent is 0.9 points better than an average 1A team, so the Pac 10 is 15.1 points better than average in those games. The Pac-10 started this bowl season with a bad loss by Arizona against Oklahoma State, but Washington upset Nebraska 19-7 as a 14 point dog and Stanford beat the crap out of a very good Virginia Tech team 40-12. The mighty SEC is just 4-5 straight up in bowl games this season despite being favored in 6 of those games and by an average of 2.8 points. The bowl games certainly don’t hurt my case that the Pac-10 is better than the SEC this season. Even the Pac-10 teams that didn’t qualify for a bowl game represented themselves well this season, as Oregon State hung tough and covered against both TCU and Boise State, UCLA beat up on Houston (with All-American Case Keenum at quarterback) and won big at Texas, and Arizona State lost by just 1 point (on a missed extra point) at Wisconsin. Only Cal’s 21 point loss at Nevada and Washington’s 35 point home loss to Nebraska were bad losses by Pac-10 teams other than Washington State - and Washington evened the score with Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. The Pac-10 has been disrespected for more than a decade come bowl season and Pac-10 underdogs are 20-6 ATS in bowl games since 1997, including 16-2 ATS if the Pac-10 representative came into the game at least 3 games over .500.
Despite playing in the nation’s toughest conference Oregon won all but one of their games by 17 points or more, including a 52-31 win over a Stanford squad that may end the season as high as #2 in the final rankings. Only Cal, with the nation’s 6th best defense (based on my ratings) was able to stay close to the Ducks in a 15-13 game. Auburn, meanwhile, had 4 wins by 3 points or less and 6 wins by 8 points or fewer despite facing an easier schedule than Oregon played. Oregon only played 3 games all season (Arizona State, Washington State and Cal) that would have been losses had they played at the same level against a team as good as Auburn. The Tigers, meanwhile, would have gone 6-7 straight up given their performance in each game if they had faced Oregon every game.
Oregon’s offense is fast paced (77.4 plays per game) and can beat you on the ground (296 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play against Division 1A competition) or through the air with the arm of Darron Thomas, who averaged 7.5 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall the Ducks averaged 532 yards at 6.9 yppl and scored an average of 47.5 points per game against 1A teams that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl and 24.3 points to an average attack. Auburn’s defense is only 0.4 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense) and they will not be able to keep the Ducks from scoring a ton of points. Oregon faced 5 teams that I rate as better defensively than Auburn is (Arizona State, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State) and the Ducks averaged 38.8 points in those 5 games while scoring 37 or more in 4 of the 5. The only team all season to hold Oregon to less than 37 points was California, who has the individual talent at all 3 levels of the defense to play the Ducks man to man and win those battles. Cal played the Ducks receivers one on one because they had the talent at cornerback to do so. Auburn’s defensive backs are the weakness of their team and the Tigers will get exploited if they try to play the same type of defensive scheme that worked for the Bears (I hope they do try that defense). Oregon performed at the same level offensively against better than average defensive teams, as their compensated rushing numbers against good run defenses was actually 0.3 yards per rushing play better while Darron Thomas was 0.3 yards per pass play worse against good pass defenses. Auburn’ defense, meanwhile, gave up 6.3 yards per play or more on 5 separate occasions this season and the best 3 offensive teams that Auburn faced (Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama) averaged 459 yards at 7.0 yppl. Those 3 teams would combine to average 7.0 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Tigers were just average defensively against the 3 very good offensive teams that they faced. My math model projects 522 yards at 6.8 yppl and 39 points for the Ducks in this game and that could be conservative given how mediocre Auburn’s defense was against elite offensive teams.
Auburn’s offense is actually better than Oregon’s attack from a compensated yards per play perspective but not from a scoring perspective (because Oregon ran so many points plays than Auburn did). The Tigers averaged 7.2 yards per play and 41.1 points per game against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and 23.3 points to an average team, so the Tigers are actually 0.4 yppl better on offense than Oregon is. The Ducks’ defense, however, is an underrated unit that is 0.5 yppl better than the Auburn defense. Oregon yielded just 4.8 yppl to a schedule of 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. Like Auburn’s defense, the Ducks weren’t quite as good against the good offensive teams that they faced. In games against Arizona State, Stanford, USC, and Arizona, the 4 best offensive teams that Oregon faced, the Ducks allowed 5.9 yppl, which is still 0.5 yppl better than average given that those teams would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team. That’s 0.4 yppl worse than the overall defensive rating for the Ducks but Auburn’s defensive rating was also 0.4 yppl worse against the better offensive teams that they faced. Auburn’s offense performed at about the same level against the good defensive teams that they faced, averaging 6.6 yppl against Mississippi State, Clemson, South Carolina (twice), LSU, and Alabama, who would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average team (that +2.0 yppl rating against good defensive teams is only 0.1 yppl worse than their overall rating). My math model projects 508 yards at 6.85 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
The projected yardage is pretty even in this game with Oregon expected to gain 522 yards at 6.80 yppl and Auburn expected to compile 508 yards at 6.85 yppl and the projected turnovers are even too. The difference could be Oregon’s fantastic special teams play, as the Ducks returned 5 punts for touchdowns and were +5 in special teams touchdowns. Auburn was even in special teams TDs at 1 for them and 1 given up. The effect of Oregon’s great punt return will be minimized somewhat in this game because neither team will punt too much but I still rate the Ducks at about 2 points better in special teams for this game.
Overall the math favors Oregon by 2 ½ points and Pac-10 underdogs that are 3 games or more above .500 are 16-2 ATS in bowl games, so there is no reason not to side with the Ducks here since the only reason that Auburn is favored is because the SEC has won 5 consecutive BCS Title games. The SEC had the best conference in those 5 seasons but that is not the case this year and the Pac-10 representative in this game is likely to prove it. Both teams are great offensively, but Oregon has a better defense and better special teams, which gives them the edge in this game. The edge is not huge, but it’s still an edge and I’m getting a couple of points with the better team. I don’t have enough reason to make this game a Best Bet but I’ll consider Oregon a Strong Opinion in this game and I’d take the Ducks in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more. I’ll lean slightly over the 74 point total.
PPP
5% Oregon
Totals4U
Auburn / Oregon Under 74
Anthony Redd
40 Dime Auburn
Andy Fanelli
80 Dime Oregon
Steve Duemig
25 Dime Oregon
Stephen Nover
50 Dime Oregon
Teddy Covers
Auburn
Grizzles
Jimmy Boyd
5* Oregon +3
3* Bobcats +3
3* Tenn Martin +11
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Auburn -1
3 Units Marquette -3
Nick Parsons
Phoenix / St Louis Under 5
Scott Spreitzer
Oregon