BEN BURNS
GOY - TCU
GAMEDAY SPORTS
3* TCU -7
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket TCU Under
Vegas Hotsheet
Boise St
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
5* La Tech -2
5* N Mex St +4
5* VCU -6
Craig Davis
75 Dime --- TCU (NOTE: absolutely buy this 1/2 point for insurance down to a key number of 7 or, even better, 6 1/2. never get beat by the hook. This number has been hovering around -7 and -7 1/2 for the better part of two weeks now and I have a feeling it might go up. Get this game as early as you can and shop around to find 7 so you can buy it down to 6 1/2)
10 Dime --- 2 Team, 5-point Teaser: CINCINNATI and OVER
TCU HORNED FROGS (Buy the 1/2 point) --- Instead of calling this the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl it should be called the "We Deserve Respect" Bowl or the "Don't Forget About Us Little Guys" Bowl, because that's all we've been hearing about from these smaller, non-BCS Conferences ever since the BCS came into existence.
And you know what?? They're right. They probably don't get enough respect. They've proven, in past years, to be just as competitive as some of the better teams from BCS Conference schools. Just ask Alabama last year. Or Oklahoma and Pittsburgh from a few years back. It happens every year... one of these big underdogs from a small conference knocks off a "major power" from a BCS Conference and we're left to wonder... "what if?" But what happens when two teams from these "weaker" conferences get together for a bowl game... then what?
To be honest, I think the country is getting rear-ended here. These two Cinderella stories should be playing one of the big boys, not each other. But, it is what it is and I'm here to tell you that TCU is more more equipped this year to handle the talents of a major conference team than the Boise State Broncos. Why? Defense. Boise State's defense is NOTHING compared to TCU's and that's going to be the difference in tonight's game.
If you've been watching these bowl games you've seen complete domination from teams in the Mountain West Conference... from Wyoming's miracle win over Fresno State to Utah and BYU clobbering Cal and Oregon State by double digits (yes, two very good teams from the mighty Pac 10) to Air Force's complete domination of Houston. If my records are correct, the Mountain West Conference is 4-0 this post-season, winning each and every game by 7 or more (three of the four by double digits).
Meanwhile, while MWC teams were kicking the crap out of their competition, teams from Boise's conference, the Western Athletic, were getting kicked around by lesser competition. Want proof? Let's take Nevada, for instance. Okay, so they were without their top RB. That doesn't excuse Nevada from getting pummeled by a very average SMU team like they did. Strike one. What about Fresno State... a team that will play anyone, anytime, anywhere? They started the bowl season off with a lousy overtime loss to pitiful Wyoming. Strike two. And then there was Idaho... the only team that brought respectability to the conference... they eeked out a 43-42 win over Bowling Green by going for two with 4 seconds left. You saw it, you know that game could have gone either way. So you tell me... which conference has impressed you more?
Now, take the top team from the MWC, the TCU Horned Frogs, a team that beat Utah and BYU handily, they beat Virginia and Clemson from BCS Conference schools... and neither one of those teams was able to muster more than 14 points against this vaunted defense. I'm telling you folks... TCU is for real and could compete with any team in the country. This team is better than any team Garry Patterson has had in his tenure at TCU and tonight, in front of the whole country, they will show just how good they are.
This line opened at around 4 and within a few days the sharps pushed it up to 7... another key number in Vegas. The last time I saw (it's happened other times but this one I remember most recently) a line jump like this so quickly was when Florida played Florida State a few weeks back. Florida opened as a 21-point favorite and it was quickly bet up to 24. The Gators ended up winning by 27. I see the same thing happening here... Vegas sharps know how good TCU is and they realize 4 points was an absolute joke. To be honest, I think 7 points is a joke and that's why I'm making it my highest rated college football game to date. The only way TCU doesn't cover this number is if they commit an inordinate amount of penalties and turn the ball over more than they normally do. That's it. It's that clear cut in my book.
I could go into a lot of statistical mumbo jumbo, but you can read the numbers. You know how good both of these teams have been in conference, but what you might not know is that Boise State lacks the defense that TCU has and simply won't be able to stop TCU many times. The Broncos have allowed 21 or more points on five occasions this year while the Frogs allowed more than 17 points just once... to Utah, and the Utes got a late, garbage-time TD as they were trailing 55-21 at the time.
Look, I'm not saying the Broncos won't score points... they clearly will. TCU is not invincible. But I see this game somewhat like I saw Florida and Cincinnati a few nights ago. The Bearcats scored a ton of points during the regular season but when they ran into a team that could actually play defense they struggled to score 3 points in the first half. Cincy would come back to score 21 points in the second half but had absolutely no answer to Florida's offense. I don't think Boise will have an answer for TCU's offense... and even if they score 24 points tonight, they'll have to find a way to stop Andy Dalton and the TCU offense which averaged over 40 points per game.
The last time these two hooked up... in last year's Poinsettia Bowl, TCU walked away with a 17-16 win despite dominating the stat sheet. They feel like they left a lot of points on the field despite their defense playing so well. They held QB Kellen Moore to just over 200 yards passing and no TDs while Boise was barely able to rush for 29 yards in that game. Tonight, they won't leave points on the field... last year left a sour taste in their mouths despite winning the game and tonight they want to finish the job.
Boise's top receiver, Austin Pettis, suffered a severe lower leg injury in their second-to-last game of the regular season vs. Nevada and it's still not 100% and may not play. That's HUGE because he was Kellen Moore's favorite target in the passing game. The guy had 14 TD receptions in their first 11 games before suffering a fractured lower leg in that Nevada game. He's making progress but it's still uncertain whether or not he'll be able to play. Even if he's able to get the "green light", how effective can he really be?
I realize it's hard NOT to take the underdog in this game because so many bowl dogs have been covering, but that's exactly what I thought in the Texas Tech/MSU game and in the Cincy/Florida game... how did that work out? Don't be surprised if the Broncos come out with gadget plays and a circus-style offense early on... because Chris Peterson knows that's the only way his team has a chance to win. But that playbook only goes so deep and eventually the tricks are going to run out. This game might actually be tighter than we want in the first half, but expect the bigger TCU offensive line to wear down Boise State in the second half and walk away with a 14+ point win in tonight's Fiesta Bowl.
2-team, 5-point teaser --- CINCINNATI AND THE OVER (college hoops) --- Despite the football madness these past two months, there's still money to be made in college hoops, and I'm going to prove myself to you with this two-team teaser that's sure to bring home some additional money after TCU covers their bowl game. The Cincy Bearcats are catching the Pitt Panthers in a great spot here, coming into Ohio off an impressive 82-72 upset win over previously-unbeaten Syracuse. The Panthers are still trying to figure out what type of a team they are after losing some talent to the NBA from last year's squad. This team is young, but talented, but they lack the defensive toughness they had last season with DeJuan Blair. To score 82 points against Syracuse on the road tells me a lot about this team... they want to outscore you instead of stopping you... one of the main reasons I like the OVER in this teaser. Both teams average around 70 PPG for the season and I expect both teams to get close to that number here tonight.
I'm taking my chances with Cincy, basically on the money line, to get the SU win over Pittsburgh. Could they cover the 4 points Vegas has them listed at right now? Sure. But I feel much safer playing the Bearcats in this teaser getting a point... meaning they basically just need to win the game. It reminds me a lot of when UConn came into their house and everyone in the world thought the Huskies would walk out with a victory. The line closed at 2 and the Bearcats won by 2, meaning you would have pushed your straight wager but would have won with them in a teaser. Same scenario applies tonight. Pittsburgh comes into this game riding high, emotionally, from that win over Syracuse... and if history has taught us anything it's always safe to play against that team in their next game... especially if it's a road game against a solid opponent. Liking Cincy and the OVER as your top teaser of the day.
Anthony Redd
25 Dime: Boise State
Brandon Lang
100 DIME - TCU HORNED FROGS - (if line is 7 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook.) - The Horned Frogs will dominate this team tonight.
First and foremost, Boise State doesn't deserve to be here. They really don't.
They had one win of any significance, and that one just happened to be the first game out of the box at home against Oregon and I think you would agree if they played today, Oregon would blow them out.
Allow me to put in perspective what is about to happen to Boise State tonight.
Against the Utah Utes, a team that played a tougher schedule than Boise State and yet put up similar defense numbers, lost to TCU 55-28.
I am talking about TCU putting up 55 points on the 19th best overall defense in the entire country and they did it rather easily.
Folks, Boise comes in with the 14th best defense against a joke of a schedule. How much of a joke you ask? Take a look at this.
With exception of the 36th ranked Oregon defense they faced on the blue carpet to start the year which held them to 19 points, the following are the total defense rankings of Boise State's other 11 opponents. Please note: Cal Davis isn't ranked.
Don't adjust your eyes: 70th, 98th, 87th, 85th, 93rd, 108th, 60th, 107th, 113th and 96th. I don't see #1 in there anywhere do you?
Fact of the matter is Boise is in for a world of trouble tonight because they are matched up in a bowl game they shouldn't have been awarded.
I had the same feeling with Cincinnati versus Florida. Didn't think Cincy based on their close calls along the way deserved to be in the Sugar Bowl. I felt all along the matchup we all should be seeing tonight was Florida-TCU.
However, it is what it is and on paper and on the field this game is a total mismatch across the board.
You look at the Mountain West in bowl games this year and you will see domination like Wyoming outright while Air Force, Utah and BYU all won by double digits.
Conversely, the WAC has been an embarrassment with Nevada and Fresno State losing outright as double digit favorites while Idaho was just flat out lucky.
This line should be TCU -14 and even then I would lay it as the #1 defense in the entire country makes a huge statement and the TCU offense has their way with an overrated Boise State defense.
Thank god Boise coach Chris Petersen got a contract extension before this game because after this beating his team is going to take tonight, they might want to reconsider.
25 DIME - BOISE STATE-TCU UNDER -It's going to be a long night for the Boise State offense.
This is the #1 defense in the country playing on the national stage. You don't think they are going to be motivated to show the world just how good they are?
They rank #2 against the run, #3 against the pass putting them #1 in the country.
When you are team like Boise State, and you are facing the best defense you have seen all year long, practice against your own team can't prepare you for what you are about to see.
This is going to be a complete dominant effort by the TCU defense as the world takes notice of just how good this defense is.
As mentioned above, when all you faced the cupcake defenses that Boise State has faced this year, they just won't be prepared for the speed, athleticism or strength of TCU tonight.
Take the Under in tonight's game.
25 DIME - TCU 1ST HALF PLAY - I was a little perturbed at myself for not taking the Gators in the first half over Cincinnati so I am not about to make the same mistake twice.
Boise State will not know what hit them from the very beginning. The speed of which TCU will be coming at Kellen Moore, who really isn't that mobile anyway.
I see line value with TCU in the first half as I have them jumping out early and getting to a double digit first half lead.
Love the First half play of the Horned Frogs and feel it's great value.
FREE SELECTION - MIAMI HEAT
Stephen Nover
100 Dime - Boise State/TCU Under
Boise State ranks first in the nation in scoring averaging 44.2 points per game. TCU averages 40.7 points per game, which is fourth-best in the country.
But I'm more impressed with the great defenses of these two teams. TCU gives up 12.4 points per game, while Boise is holding foes to 17.7 points per game. I see defense trumping offense especially with the long layoff these teams have had. Boise last played on Dec. 5, while TCU hasn't been in action since Nov. 28.
Not only are the offenses going to be rusty and out of sync, but the defenses will have had ample time to prepare. The two teams met in the Poinsettia Bowl last December and TCU won, 17-16. Boise State could manage just 250 yards of offense.
TCU had a great defense last season ranking second. But the Horned Frogs have even a more dominant defense this season being faster on the edges and stronger in the trenches. They rank No. 1 in the nation in total defense yielding 233.3 yards per game.
These teams got their big offensive numbers beating cupcakes and foes with horrendous defenses. Boise's last seven games, for instance, were against Hawaii, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico State. The Broncos averaged 49.2 points against those hapless defenses.
When Boise met a legitimate team - Oregon - it won 19-8.
TCU fattened its scoring up against weak sisters in the Mountain West Conference, a top-heavy league with four good teams and four really bad ones. When the Horned Frogs met their toughest non-league foe - Clemson - they won 14-10.
In the biggest games with the toughest competition, both Boise and TCU won with defense in low-scoring matchups. Look for that to be the case in this matchup just like last year's bowl game.
15 Dime - VCU
The combination of athleticism, rebounding, deeper bench, situation and holding a strong home-court edge put me on Virginia Commonwealth.
The Rams should prove too athletic for Northeastern. The Huskies figure to have problems containing 6-foot-11 Larry Sanders.
Northeastern has its own star in swingman Matt Janning. But VCU has been strong recently in holding down the opposition's main target. In their last four games, the Rams have combined to hold their opponent's leading scorer to 41.8 percent shooting from the floor.
VCU has proven very strong at home. Among their notable home wins this season are 82-69 over Oklahoma, 85-76 over Nevada, 82-80 over Rhode Island, 65-57 over Richmond, 82-74 over East Carolina and 91-57 over NC Wilmington.
Northeastern is playing for the fourth time in seven days. The Huskies have lost six of their eight road contests. VCU is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
10 Dime - Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks should be primed for this road matchup against Miami having lost three in a row for the first time this season.
The Hawks lost back-to-back games against Cleveland, an elite opponent they have trouble matching up against us. Still brooding about those two losses, the Hawks then lost in overtime to the Knicks on Friday. Nate Robinson came out of nowhere - actually Mike D'Antoni's doghouse - to drop 41 points on the Hawks.
The Hawks have had the entire weekend to put those losses behind them and get prepared for this matchup. Atlanta is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a straight-up loss.
Atlanta also is the top pointspread team in the NBA covering 22 of 32 games.
Miami is playing for the fourth time in six days. The Heat has lost its last three games falling to New Orleans, San Antonio and Charlotte by a combined 44 points.
Only lowly New Jersey has a worse home mark that the Heat. Miami is just 10-9 at home. The Heat have lost home contests to Charlotte, Washington, Memphis and Oklahoma City. None of those teams made the playoffs last season.
The Heat is 4-10 against the spread in its last 14 home matchups. Miami has failed to cover during 21 of its last 29 home games when facing an opponent with a winning road record.
The Hawks defeated the Heat, 105-90, at home on Nov. 18 in their lone meeting this season. The Hawks won by 15 points despite being outshot from the floor.
Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - TCU HORNED FROGS
10 DIMER - PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
30 DIMER - TCU HORNED FROGS
Deja Vu for these 2, as they met last season in the Poinsettia Bowl with TCU coming through with a misleading 17-16 win as the field goal favorite.
The Frogs dominated the stat sheet, but the 1-point win was the best they could manage.
Not tonight my friends, as TCU will take this one by double-digits.
Boise State's defense is lacking, TCU's is NOT. In their 12 games this season, the Frogs held the opposition to 14 points or less.
That is going to make a difference come the latter stages of this Fiesta Bowl, I feel sure of that.
This line is a sucker line plain-and-simple. Boise looks enticing as the dog, as we all remember the trick-plays, etc., but I am here to tell you that the Horned Frogs are not to be denied this evening.
Lay it with TCU
10 DIMER - PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Let's see, the Blazers have won the last 4 in the series, and 7 of the last 8.
The road team has covered 7 of the last 8 in this series, and Portland comes into La-La-Land having won 6 of their last 7 games overall!
I gotta tell you, I will gladly take the Blazers plus a basket or so against the Clippers.
The Clippers have won just 2 of their last 6 straight up, and both of those wins came against East Conference teams that were playing on the road over the holidays.
Take Portland to notch another series win.
Blazers plus the points the play.
MR EAST
NCAAB MONDAY MADNESS
RIDER @ MANHATTAN
3 UNITS RIDER +2
Jaspers are turning into the team that can't shoot straight. Their last 5 games have included Morgan St., LIU Brooklyn, and Marist, teams you would expect them to find some room, and knock down some shots. The problem is they have shot 96-298 in their last 5 or an anemic 32.2%. They have also been icy from deep at 16-69, or 23.1%. Broncos 5 very balanced with all 5 sporting double-digit assist totals, and 4 of 5 double-digit scoring, will bring enough here to get the road win.
RAS
2 Units San Jose St-2
1.5 Units Cal St Northridge -1
UC Riverside -4
La Tech -1.5
Matt Fargo
9* TCU
Tom Freese
10* TCU
Hollywood Sports
25* Boise St