MURRAY HILL MIKE
Boise St
John Ryan
7* TCU
Nick Parsons
10* GOM TCU
SCOTT SPREITZER
Boise St
Larry Ness
Boise St
DOUBLE DRAGON
HYDRA TCU -7 (-120)
Marc Lawrence
Boise St
WAYNE ROOT
6* TCU (-7) over Boise State
4* CalRiverside (-4) over Cal Santa Barbara
BEN BURNS
GOY - TCU
I'm laying the points with TCU. With records of 12-0 and 13-0 this game marks the first time that two undefeated teams have faced each other in a bowl game that wasn't for the national championship. Some will argue that Boise is the team that's "happier" to be here. After all, the Broncos didn't ever really believe that they had a shot at playing for the national championship while TCU did. Additionally, the Broncos get a chance to avenge a loss that TCU handed them last season in the Pointsetta Bowl. That may be true. However, that doesn't mean that TCU will be any less motivated to go all out for the win. As TCU coach Gary Patterson, the AP Coach of the Year, had to say: "Our whole deal is we're going to have to show the nation in this next bowl game that we belong, that we're one of the top two teams in the nation. You can still win the AP (championship), so that's what our whole goal is." I believe that will provide more than enough motivation for the Horned Frogs, as they look to make a statement that they are in fact the best team in the country. Yes, Boise State had an impressive 13-0 record, including a win over Oregon. However, that win vs. the Ducks came on the blue turf and in the very first week of the season - Oregon wasn't nearly as strong a team at that point. Give the Broncos credit but if they faced the Ducks later in the year and/or at a different venue, things could easily have been different. The Broncos' next "biggest" wins came against the likes of Fresno State and Nevada. They beat Fresno by 17 early in the year. While both teams were playing on a shorter than normal week, the Broncos were fortunate to catch the Bulldogs off a double-OT loss. Also, considering that Fresno lost 52-14 to Nevada six weeks ago and more recently were beaten by lowly Wyoming in its bowl game, Boise's "big win" starts to look less impressive. As for the win over Nevada, Boise was fortunate to face the Wolfpack on the blue turf. The Broncos won by 11, failing to cover the number. Given Nevada's 45-10 loss vs. SMU in the Hawaii Bowl, that victory also starts to look far less impressive. TCU, on the other hand, has faced a much more difficult schedule and has shown no mercy, regardless of the opponent. For starters, the Frogs recently played on the road, at Wyoming, facing the same team that beat Fresno. That resulted in a 45-10 destruction. The previous week, the Frogs absolutely dismantled Utah, winning by a score of 55-10. That's even more impressive, when considering that Utah just had its way vs. Cal in the Pointsetta Bowl. How about SMU, the team that crushed Nevada? TCU beat the Mustangs by a score of 39-14. Early in the year, the Frogs went on the road and won at Clemson while also winning by 16 at Virginia. Last but certainly not least, the Frogs played BYU on the road and won by a score of 38-7! For the season, the Frogs have outscored opponents by an average of 40.7 to 12.4. They've won each of their last seven games by a minimum of 27 points and by an average of 36.6 points! Looking at last year's bowl game and we find that TCU fell behind 13-0 and still rallied to win the game. The final score of that game was very close. However, a look at the stats shows that the Frogs actually dominated. They had a 28-15 edge in first downs and a 472-250 edge in total yards. That included a commanding 275-28 edge on the ground! Naturally, they also had a significant edge (36:07-23:53) in terms of time of possession. Everyone remembers the big win over Oklahoma a few years ago. However, not many realize that last year's loss dropped Boise to just 4-10 vs. ranked teams, since moving up to Division I-A in 1996. This year's TCU team is even better. Much better. Personally, I don't believe the same can be said of Boise. Both teams are excellent offensively (note that Boise's top receiver, Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with 14 touchdown, is questionable) but I believe TCU has a big edge on defense. Boise coach Petersen knows his team is in tough: "I think when we played those guys last year it was one of the better teams we had matched up with in a long time. I think TCU's gotten even better than last year and taken the next step in their progress with their program and what they're doing. It'll be a tremendous challenge ... for us to hang in there and play with those guys." I'll close my analysis with a post-game quote from last year's bowl game. Ian Johnson, Boise's longtime star running back, no longer with the team, said of the Frogs: "They had better athletes than we've ever seen. They played with so much heart. You didn't look over there one time and say, 'We broke them.' They knew they were going to come back and they believed in themselves the whole time." *10 Bowl GOY
Fantasy Sports Gametime
1000* Play Boise State (+7.5) over TCU
Boise State has won 14 consecutive games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points and they have also won 10 of the last 11 games vs. Mountain West Conference Opponents. Boise State has won 16 of the last 17 games coming off an UNDER the total and they are averaging over 44 points a game on offense this season.
100* Play Oklahoma City (+1.5) over Chicago
Oklahoma City has covered the spread in 11 of the last 12 games after failing to cover the spread and they have also covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off a road loss. Chicago has lost 28 of the last 34 games coming off a win as an underdog and they are only averaging 92 points a game on offense this season.
100* Play Utah State (+2) over Louisiana Tech
Utah State has won 14 of the last 16 games when playing in the month of January and they have also won 19 of the last 22 games after failing to cover the spread in two of the last three games. Utah State has won 8 of the last 9 games vs. Louisiana Tech and they are only allowing an average of 59 points a game on defense this season.
Sportsbetsnow
2 Units Boise St. +7.5 (buy the hook)
2 Units Cincy -4.5
2 Units ATL -1.5
ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
4 Units on TCU (-7) over Boise State, 8pmET
3 on the under 53.5 TCU/BOISE STATE
Steve Duemig
20 Dime - Boise State
This is a rematch of last year's Poinsettia Bowl which was won by TCU by 1 point late. As we watched this season unfold, the odds makers have inflated the line on TCU to no avail. It seemed like any number they threw out there, TCU found a way to cover it. They haven't played the sternest of competition though but their schedule is what it is. Boise St is undefeated for the second straight season but were complaining a bit about having to play another undefeated team and the same team that they faced last year. These teams also wanted to put their game up against some of the big conference boys, but they should both just shut up and play. They are both getting the big pay day that a BCS bowl brings you and they are two teams that the public wants to see play each other.
Now lets break down the game and see if we can come up with a winner. There are a couple of areas that we have to look at in bowl matchups. First is the line play. Both have very good and very quick defenses and both teams can get after the passer. We saw how Boise did it against Oregon in the first game of the year, and that game right there is still a factor in what we will determine in this game. Oregon played in the Rose Bowl this year and while they were man handled by Ohop St. Boise manhandled them even more. They also protect their QB Kellen Moore very well. He was sacked only 5 times the entire season!! None of those were in the last 5 games as well. So edge in the trenches goes to Boise St. Next is the QB play. both teams have outstanding QB's. Both are very experienced and both make their teams go. But there is one distinction between the two that really stands out. Kellen Moore REALLY takes care of the football 39 TD's and only 3 picks the whole season.
That is a 13 - 1 ratio!! Moore also gets the ball out quickly which should help negate the vicious pass rush that the Horned Fogs can throw at you. Defensively this is not a mismatch either as TCU is ranked #1 , while Boise's D is ranked 13th nationally. The total on the game has come down despite the majority of the bets being on the over, and yes I think it will go back up tomorrow as the game approaches. The under could and should be a bonus play for you but that is not the official play in here.
I believe that the big boys have their middle created around the key number of 7. They have forced it down to 6.5 at one point and they have hammered the line at 7.5. We will continue to go with the bowl bread and butter here though and that is the fact that teams getting 7 or more in bowl games are hitting at 70 percent over the last 11 seasons. I am not a big fan of revenge games in college but in this one I think it is for real and I do think that Boise who has played in this bowl before, beating Oklahoma and I believe they will draw on that and will cover and win outright against TCU. We'll settle for the cover though.
Strategy note: Wait on this one to see if you can get the hook. If it doesn't come, you might consider buying it to get off the key number and an added level of comfort.
Kelso BB
10 units TCU -7.5
3 units Wm & Mary -9
5 units La Tech -2
5 units Hornets +8
10 units Cal Irvine -8
25 units G Mason -4.5
WAYNE ROOT
6* TCU (-7) over Boise State
4* CalRiverside (-4) over Cal Santa Barbara
3* Western Ky (+7) over Miss St