Dwayne Bryant 1/4
Fiesta Bowl - Boise State vs. TCU - 8:10 p.m. ET on FOX
Bet: UNDER 53.5
NOTE: Bet this NOW because I believe the line will continue to drop.
At first glance, it would be easy to take the Over in this matchup. We have a Boise State offense averaging 44.2 points per game, with QB Kellen Moore tossing 39 TDs and just 3 INTs. And we also have a TCU offense averaging 40.7 points per game. But that only tells half the story.
As potent as those offenses are, I believe it's the defenses that will tell the story in this one. Boise State's defense allows just 17.7 points and 299.6 yards per game. Their yards per point on defense is a very solid 16.7. TCU's defense is even better. The Horned Frogs allow just 12.4 points and 233.2 yards per game, with a yards per point of 19.5.
These two met in last year's Poinsettia Bowl and TCU prevailed, 17-16. Boise State only played one top caliber team this season and that was their opener against Oregon (another explosive offense). That game ended with 27 total points scored. TCU's only road games against decent opponents were at Clemson (24 total points scored), Air Force (37), and BYU (45).
Bottom line: I don't expect much to be different from last year's bowl clash. I expect this game to end with a total between 41 and 45. Go UNDER.
Winning Points
4* Boise
Lenny Del Genio
CHICAGO BULLS -2.5
We lost a heartbreaker on Oklahoma City Saturday night, as they lost in overtime to Milwaukee. That game marked the first time all season that the Thunder failed to cover the number in back to back games. Regulars know we are big fans of this time - with their young nucleus of Durant, Green and Westbrook - but it appears as if the oddsmakers have caught up with them here. They have also been playing a lot lately, meaning fatigue could be a factor for this non-conference road game. OKC played back to back road games last Monday and Tuesday, then was home for Utah on Thursday, then back out on the road two days later for the Bucks loss. Factor in the holidays and overtime and the Thunder have to be tired. Although assistant coach Ron Adams was on the Bulls bench from 2003-07, Chicago remains a pretty unfamiliar opponent and when they lost at home to the Thunder last year were playing with the likes of Larry Hughes in a 3-guard lineup which featured a dreadful performance from Ben Gordon, who was a minus 18 when on the floor. All of a sudden the Bulls have been playing much better recently, winning and covering four straight ganes, including beating the Magic outright here at the United Center to start the year. That's a season-high for consecutive wins and they Orlando to just 38.9% shooting, the season's best effort on the defensive end. In fact, if not for the infamous gag job against Sacramento on 12.21 (blew 35-point 2nd half lead), Chicago would be on a five-game SU/ATS home win streak. Offensively, they club has begun to pick up as well averaging 99.8 points per game L4 after scoring just 90.9 PPG its first 27 games. Our strategy with this team remains the same, play on 'em at home, go against 'em on the road. They seem to be playing inspired ball since rumors that HC Vinny Del Negro would be fired surfaced. Chicago is our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Ron Raymond
BOISE STATE +7
When Boise State played as any home/road team - During Last 7 Years - With 1 Under or More - Won Last Game by 35 Points or More - With SU Record of 5 Win 0 Lost in L5G; The Broncos are 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in this cycle the last 7 years.My ATS Calculator numbers have TCU winning by only 3.15 points.
Take Boise State +7
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
TCU -7.5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the Horned Frogs:
The Broncos have shown a weakness against power-run teams dating to last year’s Poinsettia Bowl loss to TCU.
Kellen Moore is the nation’s most efficient passer, and he leads the nation’s highest-scoring offense; however TCU leads the nation in total defense and ranks in the top six in nearly every other defensive category.
Remember, Boise State is already a sub-par 1-2 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record.
On the other side of the field: TCU beat Boise State 17-16 last year in the Poinsettia Bowl.
While the scoreboard showed a close game, TCU dominated the stat sheet in essentially every category, including holding the Broncos to just 28 rushing yards.
The TCU offense had a record-setting year this season, finishing ranked #4 in total offense (469.1 yards per game); junior QB Andy Dalton earned Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year honors after pacing the Frogs with 2,484 passing yards and 22 TD passes to just five INT's; he also ran for 522 yards and three more scores.
Not only is TCU 5-0 SU its last five, its also 6-1 ATS its last seven.
Bottom line: The old adage that defense wins championships could not be more true in this case; expect head coach Gary Patterson to have a rock-solid defensive scheme in this one as they finally expose the Broncos; look for TCU to improve to 8-3 ATS this year as a favorite and for Boise State to fall to 0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points!
10* TCU
Tony George
TCU -7
Not afraid to lay it with what I feel is the best team in Texas. Yes, you read that right, the best team in Texas! The defense will give an undersized and out manned and over hyped Boise team fits on offense. Boise St will see an offense geared towards balance and physical nature they have not seen all year. The signature win with the Broncos was Oregon and we all saw what an above average Ohio State team did to them, and the PAC 10 was way down this year anyway. 3rd against the run,. 4th against the pass, DEFENSE wins big games and TCU is on a mission.
Play 1 to 1.5 Units on TCU.
Rocketman
SANTA CLARA +6
Crimson are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Crimson are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Crimson are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Crimson are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Broncos are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. We'll play Santa Clara for 3 units tonight!
Evan Altemus
TCU -7
Last season these two teams faced off in the Poinsettia Bowl with TCU winning a 17-16 game. However, that final score is very misleading. The Horned Frogs absolutely dominated the game, outgaining Boise State 472 yards to 250 yards. However, starting quarterback Andy Dalton threw two interceptions, and TCU didn’t take advantage of the other opportunities they had. The bottom line is that TCU is a much better team than last year’s squad. They have absolutely dominated every opponent this season, which is even more remarkable considering how good the Mountain West Conference teams have looked in bowl games. In fact, the last MWC team to make a bowl, Wyoming, was able to beat one of the better teams in the WAC, in Fresno State. Despite these teams having undefeated records, there is a huge difference in talent in this game, evident by the touchdown point spread. In addition, TCU is a bad match-up for Boise State. The Horned Frogs like to run the ball first, but the Broncos have struggled stopping teams with good rushing attacks this year. Louisiana Tech, Nevada, and Fresno State ran all over the Boise State defense. Meanwhile, Boise State hasn’t faced anywhere near as dominant of a defense that they will face in TCU. In addition, Broncos wide receiver Austin Pettis is questionable for the game with an ankle injury. His injury is significant because he is one of Kellen Moore’s favorite targets. Look for the Horned Frogs dominant defense and premiere rushing attack to be the differences in this game.
4 UNIT SELECTION TCU
Bob Balfe
TCU -7
Two non BCS schools get together for the first time to decide a BCS Bowl Game. In my opinion TCU is the best team in the country. I think this team could beat Florida, Texas and Alabama. If this was a major school people would rave about this defense. This is the most complete team I have seen in a while. Not many people even followed this team this year, but the defense is awesome and now they finally have a good offense after years of just great defenses. Boise is a great team, but they played no tough games other than week one at home against Oregon. This team is good, but in the end TCU is more balanced and should get the win and cover. Take TCU.
Kikki Sports
2* GOM TCU
Savannah Sports
3* Boise St +7
Eric Degarde
1* Cincinnati -4.5
1* College of Charleston +14
PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS
TCU -7 *POD
San Jose -2
La Tech -2
Tim Trushel
New Mexico St
Teddy Covers
Fairfield
SuperSportsGroup
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