Indian Cowboy
6 Unit Play. Take the Atlanta Falcons +10 over the New Orleans Saints
These two teams are division rivals. You think Atlanta will not be fired up coming off the tough loss to Dallas? You better believe it. The Falcons struggled in the atmosphere at Dallas, but this is their chance to redeem themselves a bit against a rival in New Orleans and on top of that, if the Falcons can defeat this team, they will not be that far out for the division crown. Heck, the Falcons will be 5-2 and the Saints would be 6-1 pending a Falcons win. The Falcons know this and the Saints did show some weaknesses against the Dolphins. I like the Falcons to be an active dog here as I see this game likely going over. But, more importantly, I like the Falcons here, as a dog, coming off a loss, against a division rival and looking to shock the football world so to speak by winning this game outright. I think folks will be surprised at how well this team will be prepared for this game. Do not underestimate this Falcons team and of course, the Saints get to show off their stuff in front of the league on MNF, but in the same token, this does have plenty of holes on defense and the Falcons can run the heck out of the ball. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss.
James Patrick Sports
Falcons vs. Saints
Play: 3* Over
New Orleans is virtually unstoppable at home as they have cashed winning Over the Total tickets at a (13-3) ATS rate of late. The Superdome will be a welcome venue as well for Atlanta QB Matt Ryan who is (11-3) in his career in games played indoors. Saints lead the NFL with an average of 39.7 ppg this season to date. Hope all the scoreboard bulbs are functioning for this one as the Black Birds and Saints light it up on Monday Night Football.
SIXTH SENSE
3% ATLANTA/NEW ORLEANS OVER 54
NEW ORLEANS -10 Atlanta 54.5
I’ve been saying all year Atlanta is a little overrated so far this year and it showed up last week at Dallas. Atlanta did out rush Dallas 4.8ypr to 4.1ypr but were badly out passed 9.6yps to 4.5yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 4.6yppl. The Saints fell behind Miami 24-3 but didn’t panic and were able to fight back and not only win but cover the game with their 46-34 win. Part of the reason they didn’t panic is because the Miami scores were not on long sustained drives. Aided by four NO turnovers, 17 of Miami’s 34 points came on drives of 19 yards or less and another seven came on a one play drive with a 68 yard run by Ricky Williams. The Saints out rushed Miami 5.1ypr to 4.6ypr, 6.4yps to 5.1yps and 5.9yppl to 4.8yppl. Atlanta has improved running the ball but still averaging just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr but they do throw the ball well, averaging 6.7yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. The Saints average 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.9yps against 5.8yps and 6.3yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 179-95-13. Numbers favor NO by 15.5 points and predict about 60 points. NO has won five straight in NO (2005 game was played in SA). Saints have won every game by at least 12 points this year. They have scored 45 or more point in four games. I like the Saints and the over in this game. There is no reason NO can’t get to 35 points in this game and if they do that, we can’t lose the side and total. Four of those six games have totaled 70 points or more. Atlanta has played two teams that are currently above .500 and lost both of those games by 16 points. No reason to get in the way of the Saints train at this point in the season. NEW ORLEANS 40 ATLANTA 24
Pointwise Phone Service
3* NEW ORLEANS
Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
NEW ORLEANS (-10.0) 33 Atlanta 17
New Orleans suffered a letdown last week and they still managed to come from behind and cover the spread in Miami. The Saints are now 6-0 ATS and I see no reason why that streak will end at home on Monday Night Football. The Saints' offense is averaging 40 points per game and the only two games in which they did not score 45 points or more were against the Jets and Bills, the two best pass defenses that the Saints have faced. Atlanta does not have a good pass defense (6.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), so I don't see Drew Brees being stopped in this game. The Saints also have a good rushing attack and Atlanta is worse than average defending the run too (4.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average team).
The Falcons have a reputation for having a good offense, but that unit is actually barely better than average with 5.4 yards per play coming against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. New Orleans, meanwhile, has a good defense has allowed 4.9 yppl this season and rates at 0.5 yppl better than average.
My math model favors New Orleans by 13 points and the Saints apply to a very good 67-15-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 14-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 7 points. Atlanta's loss last week may have them fired up to play well tonight (they're 5-1 ATS after a loss), but winning teams that are coming off a loss are just 18-44-1 ATS as Monday night visitors, including 12-39-1 ATS if the home team has a win percentage of .400 or higher. New Orleans, meanwhile, is now a perfect 10-0 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of more than 3 points, so they're not the type of team to let up. I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.
Steven Budin
25 Dime - New Orleans
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
11 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
*NEW ORLEANS 44 - Atlanta 21
Lost amid the off season hoopla of acquiring All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez was the fact that Atlanta saw its defense ravaged by free-agent defections, forcing a significant re-tooling project for the stop unit by HC Mike Smith. And last week’s one-sided loss at Dallas indicates the Falcs might no longer be able to camouflage those deficiencies, especially with injuries piling up (CB Brian Williams the latest casualty) and the DL lacking a true run-stuffer after stout rookie DT Peria Jerry’s season-ending knee injury and Grady Jackson’s FA departure. Those shortcomings will likely be exploited by Drew Brees and red-hot New Orleans bunch that maintained its perfect SU and spread mark (6-0!) after overcoming 21-point deficit at Miami. And even the upgraded Saints “D” sharing in the fun with 2 more TDs last week (that’s now 5 this season!).
Anthony Redd
15 Dime: Falcons
igz1 sports
4* Atlanta +11.5
Jim Feist
5* Monday Night Football Side
ATLANTA FALCONS / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Take: ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons (4-2 SU/ATS) are talented and playing fairly well, though their new-look defense gets all it can handle here. They have excellent balance on offense behind QB Matt Ryan (11 TDs, 6 picks), RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White and newcomer 33-year old TE Tony Gonzalez. TE Gonzalez had 73 and 71 receiving yards in the first two games, leading the team each time, and 55 yards in an impressive 45-10 win at San Francisco. The Saints (6-0 SU/ATS) are the team to beat in the NFC. After a 48-27 rout of the NY Giants, shredding the top defense in the NFL with 493 yards, they came from a 2-TD halftime deficit Sunday to beat Miami, 46-34. QB Drew Brees (14 TDs, 5 picks) has been sensational, with WRs Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and TE Jeremy Shockey, plus RB Reggie Bush as a pass catcher out of the backfield leading an offense averaging 38 ppg. They scored 46 points Sunday even though Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions and five sacks. Both of these teams are built for playing indoors and both should get their points. The Falcons have the balance on offense to stay with this club. Yes, the Saints shredded the top defense they faced in the Ny Giants. However, after Sunday's Giants performance against Philadelphia, we have to now take that thrashing with a grain of salt. The Falcons are getting lots of points and should stay close.
Wayne Root
2009 Football Upset Club
4* Falcons (+12) over Saints
The Duke's Sports
New Orleans (-12) for 1.5 Units
This line spiked sharply from its opening (NO -9) but we still see some value with the Saints. New Orleans is not just a pass happy team; they have a potent run game (156 ypg) that opens up play action for Brees who is having a phenomenal year. The Falcons' secondary has been yielding and should run into more problems keeping their defense off the field that is because the Falcons' run game has not been as dynamic as anticipated. RB Turner can't get untracked to fuel the passing game for QB Ryan and we may continue to see that scenario unfold tonight. The Saints' defense has thrived under DC Greg Williams holding foes to an average of 94 ypg rushing (83 ypg at home). The Saints play the favorite role well at 18-5 , covered 7 of their last 8 at home, and covered 6 straight as home chalk. New Orleans controls a 7-3 ATS edge in this series, including 4-1 ATS at home. Atlanta has succumbed in the prime time MNF slot: vs their division at 1-8 ATS and just 1-12 ATS vs above .500 teams. Saints the call.
David Banks
NFL
Saints -Pts
Over
MLB
Yankees
NBA
Houston Rockets
Sacramento Kings
Indian Cowboy
6 Unit Play. Take the Atlanta Falcons +10 over the New Orleans Saints
These two teams are division rivals. You think Atlanta will not be fired up coming off the tough loss to Dallas? You better believe it. The Falcons struggled in the atmosphere at Dallas, but this is their chance to redeem themselves a bit against a rival in New Orleans and on top of that, if the Falcons can defeat this team, they will not be that far out for the division crown. Heck, the Falcons will be 5-2 and the Saints would be 6-1 pending a Falcons win. The Falcons know this and the Saints did show some weaknesses against the Dolphins. I like the Falcons to be an active dog here as I see this game likely going over. But, more importantly, I like the Falcons here, as a dog, coming off a loss, against a division rival and looking to shock the football world so to speak by winning this game outright. I think folks will be surprised at how well this team will be prepared for this game. Do not underestimate this Falcons team and of course, the Saints get to show off their stuff in front of the league on MNF, but in the same token, this does have plenty of holes on defense and the Falcons can run the heck out of the ball. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss.
4 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+144) over the NY Yankees
It is now or never for the Phillies. Usually we take totals in baseball, but today is a bit different. We have the opportunity to really ratchet up some profit today on the Fightin Phils with their ace on the mound. Cliff Lee has dominated these Yankees and other teams in the post season thus far and I loved the attitude he gaved the Yanks as he caught the shallow pop up that came back to the pitcher the other day. Even Charlie Emanuel chuckled at it. The Phils at the end of the day realize that it is one game at a time. If Lee can roll on today, they will have a dog fight on their hands in Game 6. And, certainly, they can send Lee back to the mound once again for Game seven. Heck, Lee will probably be fine pitching on two to three days rest for Game six for all that he is concerned and Manuel could send Pedro out there for Game seven. Either way you look at it, this is a must win for the Phillies and I believe Lee will show up in a big way. Besides, what fun is this series, if it does not at least go until Game 6? Lee has pitched a total of seventeen postseason innings thus far and has given up 0 runs, and has given up just two runs over his last 33 innings. Burnett can be a different pitcher on the road such as his six run performance in six innings at Anaheim in the prior series. I look for Lee, the crowd, the Phillies hitters all to be on their mark today as the Phillies look to stave off elimination and at least take this series to six games. The Yanks are 0-4 in their last four contests as Underdogs, the Phillies are 10-2 as favorites of late and the Phillies are 4-0 when Lee starts with such a total that has been set.
Special K
15* Atlanta Falcons