DOUBLE DRAGON
CHARGERS -10
SIXTH SENSE
3% DENVER +10
SAN DIEGO -10 Denver 50.5
Speaking of jumping out to large leads, Denver jumped on KC to the tune of 35-0 before KC knew what hit them, on their way to a 49-29 victory. Denver out rushed KC 4.9ypr to 2.3ypr, out passed them 8.5yps to 7.6yps and out gained them overall, 6.8yppl to 6.1yppl, including sacking KC four times. Chargers are off their bye following a 29-23 victory at Houston. In that game, they were out rushed 4.1ypr to 3.0ypr but out passed Houston 12.1yps to 7.4yps. Overall, they out gained Houston 7.3yppl to 5.8yppl.
Denver averages 3.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. San Diego averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 8.0yps against 6.6yps and 6.4yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl.
SD qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 111-39-3 and plays against them here. Numbers favor SD by 10.5 points and predict about 53 points. I had Denver here last year in a game they won SU after being blown out three straight years here. The Broncos finally had their starting offensive line in place last week and it produced huge results with Kyle Orton never getting touched. Time will tell but it appears they may finally be getting their offense together and they are somewhat healthier on defense as well. The Chargers are dealing with injuries of their own at wide receiver, tight end and running back. I like Denver to keep this game close with such a large number. SAN DIEGO 31 DENVER 30
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* San Diego
CHRIS JORDAN
200* DENVER BRONCOS
BEN BURNS
10* CHARGERS -10
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Broncos earned a big win vs. KC last week, doing San Diego a favor in the process. Don't expect the Chargers to show them any kindness here though. The Chargers got off to their typically slow start and are now having to dig their way out of a hole. With the Chiefs winning again yesterday, (Raiders lost) the Chargers know that they absolutely need this one. That's particularly true, given that they're 0-2 in the division. A win here and they tie Oakland and stay within a game of the Chiefs. Of course, one could argue that the 3-6 Broncos need the game even more. However, I'd argue that the Broncos don't truly believe that they can come all the way back to win the division, while the Chargers still expect to do so. While the Broncos did manage to beat up on the Chiefs, they'd gone 0-4 SU/ATS in their previous four games. Those losses came by an average of 17.75 points. The Chargers, who had last week off, are 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games, beating Tennessee by eight and winning at Houston by six. For the season, the Chargers are 3-1 SU/ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average score of 33 to 17.7. They've outgained opponents by a commanding average of 428.7 to 255.7 mark, in terms of total yards per home game. Conversely, the Broncos are 1-3 SU/ATS on the road. The Broncos are 1-5 ats the last six times that they were off a division win and 2-9 ats (1-10 su) the last 11 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Chargers were 15-6 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I expect them to improve on those stats with a convincing double-digit win here.
10* CLIPPERS +5
I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. I successfully played against the Hornets yesterday. That result worked out well, in terms of setting up today's play. Not only did the Hornets (barely) fail to cover, but they won their game outright. So, I got to cash yesterday's basketball ticket AND the Hornets may be slightly more complacent today, then they would have been if they'd lost yesterday. Off that result, now playing their third game in four days AND with a bigger game vs. Utah on deck, I feel that the Hornets may have some trouble focusing on the lowly Clippers. The Clippers are somewhat more talented than their record indicates though and they're capable of surprising. While they're a modest 8-7 ATS the last 15 times that they were home underdogs in the +6 to +9.5 range, during the same stretch, the Hornets were 2-3 ATS when listed as road favorites in the -6 to -9.5 range and just 42-55-1 ATS as favorites, overall. Admittedly, the Clippers have had trouble getting wins lately and they've also had trouble beating the Hornets in recent years. They're still playing hard though and I believe that they can take some positives from Saturday's loss. Coach Del Negro was quoted as saying: "...I'm happy with the way we battled. We had opportunities there, kept fighting to cut the lead, but we battled and fought and tried to grind it out. Blake shot it real well, we were aggressive the whole game..." While they only have one win in their last 11 games, only three of those games (and only one at home) resulted in a double-digit loss. In other words, they've been more competitive than one would imagine, if only looking at the recent record. One of those double-digit losses came at New Orleans, putting the Clippers in the 'revenge' role here. As noted yesterday, the Hornets also tend to fare poorly against "defensively challenged" teams. Including yesterday's result, they're now a money-burning 39-61-1 ATS the last 101 times that they faced a team which allows 99 or more points per game. They're likely to have a few new faces in the lineup tonight (due to their recent trade) and that may take a bit of adjusting. All things considered, I feel that the situation favors the revenge-minded Clippers and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than expected.
8* KINGS / SENATORS UNDER
I'm playing on LA and Ottawa to finish UNDER the total. These teams are both off a few straight high-scoring games. That doesn't mean that we need to expect another one tonight though. In fact, with both teams determined to improve defensively, I expect the opposite to be true. While that number has risen a bit recently, the Kings are still only allowing 2.4 goals per game. They've seen the UNDER go 12-7 the last 2+ seasons, when having played three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go a profitable 47-32 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Note that LA's starting goalie Jonathan Quick is expected to get the start and that he's 11-2-0 with a superb 1.82 GAA. That's the best start by a goalie in Kings' franchise history. Quick, who just stopped all six shots he faced in Saturday's "shootout," is 2-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA in two starts against Ottawa. The Sens are not at all pleased with the high number of goals they've allowed lately. They're better than that defensively though and are still allowing a respectable 2.8 goals per game at home. The offense has been dismal though as they're averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the season, including just 1.6 per game at home. Note that the UNDER is 11-7 the last 18 times that they'd played three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 61-44-2 the last 100+ times that they were in that situation. Most of the Sens' recent high-scoring games have come on the road. They've still seen five of their last nine home games stay below the total. They've only hosted the Kings once the past few seasons. That was in February of 2009. That game had an O/U of 5.5 but finished with a score of 1-0, with Quick recording the shutout. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected.
6* PHILADELPHIA
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both these teams have gotten off to great starts and both are currently playing well. I believe that the Flyers, who knocked out the Canadiens in five games of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, are the stronger team though. Playing on home ice and looking to avenge a 3-0 loss at Montreal last week, I expect them to have the advantage. A look at the earlier result shows that the Flyers actually had a 41-28 edge in shots on goal. So, it wasn't like they played poorly. Granted, Price has been playing very well in goal. Halak was also playing exceptionally well in last season's playoffs though and the Flyers were still able to beat the Canadiens by a combined score of 13-2 in winning all three games here at Philadelphia. In fact, they chased Halak in the first of those games and then continued to score against Price. Philadelphia went on to win that one 6-0. Afterwards, Price commented: "They came out hard. They were ready." The Flyers, who won at Washington last time out, are 8-3 (+3.5) the last 11 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I look for them "come out hard" and be "ready" again here, avenging last week's loss and improving to 5-1 the last six times that they were a host in this series.
RAS
James Madison -3.5
Derek Mancini
15 Dime Chargers
I'm not buying into Denver's blowout of Kansas City last week. One big win doesn't erase the 4 straight losses SUATS they had before that.True, it was an impressive display, but repeating that effort tonight is going to be A LOT easier said than done.
Kansas City's defense was nothing special, ranked 21st in total defense, and 25th against the pass. The Chargers, who are # 1 overall in total defense AND # 1 overall against the pass in the NFL, allowing only 185 passing yards/game this season! KC has allowed 16 TDs with 7 picks this season. The Bolts have allowed half that many touchdown (8 TDs) with one more pick. In other words, the Chiefs were ripe for the picking vs a great Broncos passing attack. But the same CANNOT be said for Chargers, who've also notched 7 more sacks on the year (27 to 20 for KC). This is a completely different match up for Denver, and when you factor in the bye week it only gets more difficult.
San Diego's vaunted defense is even better at home, and their 3-1 mark ATS at Qualcomm only strengthens my argument. Chargers are also 17-10-1 ATS as a home favorite under coach Turner. The Broncos are just 1-3 ATS this season as a road dog, including their most recent loss at San Fran Oct 31st.
The thing to consider is the Chargers passing attack, and specifically Rivers penchant for evicerating this Broncos secondary. By now you've probably read this stat somewhere, but in 8 career games against Denver, Rivers posts a red-hot 117 passer rating (14 TDs to just 3 INTs)! Broncos D has been strong against the pass this season, BUT we all saw what Cassel did to them last week (469 yards, 4 TDs, no picks)... Don't tell me Rivers isn't going to have a huge game tonight! Lay it with the Chargers over the Broncos Monday.
Matt Fargo
10* Broncos / Chargers Under 50½
Wunderdog
Denver/San Diego Under 50.5
RAS
James Madison -3.5
Presbyterian + 7
DAVID MALINSKY
MIAMI/INDIANA UNDER 198
CONNECTICUT/WICHITA STATE UNDER 137.5
DUKE
Jimmy Boyd
5* Chargers -8.5
4* Minnesota +9.5
Rocketman
3* Wichita State +2.5
3* Marist +14.5
3* TCU +3
3* Detroit +7
3* Old Dominion -2
4* Ottawa Senators -110
Blade
Do you have anyway of knowing the units Wunderdog places on his NFL bets? It would be nice to see how he values his plays.
Kevin Rogers
T'Wolves at Thunder
Pick: T'Wolves +9.5
The Wolves have been a solid play as a road underdog lately, covering four straight games on the highway, as Minnesota battles Oklahoma City. The Thunder is dinged up at the moment with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green each missing road wins over the Celtics and Bucks. Both young stars are questionable for tonight's game, as OKC is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite. Minnesota can hang within this number on the road.