TRACE ADAMS
1000* Denver Broncos
500* Mississippi State Bulldogs
MATT RIVERS
150,000* SD Chargers
JOEL TYSON
30 Dime Denver Broncos
10 Dime Kansas State Wildcats
JAY MCNEILL
5 Dime Denver Broncos
CHUCK O'BRIEN
25 Dime Denver/SD Chargers Over
BRETT ATKINS
20 Dime Denver Broncos
ANTHONY REDD
20 Dime SD Chargers
STEVE BUDIN
25 Dime Denver Broncos
CRAIG DAVIS
75 Dime Teaser Denver Broncos & Game OVER
25 Dime Kentucky Wildcats
AL DEMARCO
5 Dime Denver Broncos
5 Dime SA Spurs
5 Dime Duke
ANDY FANELLI
25 Dime SD Chargers/Denver Broncos Over
Seabass
200* SD Chargers
200* Duquesne
50* Duke
Billy Coleman
4* Hornets -5.5
4* Thunder Under 210
3* St. Peters +12
Northcoast
MNF Magic Chargers
Marquee Over
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Montreal Canadians
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:
The Habs are 13-6-1-0 overall, including 6-2 on the road; last time out they won in front of the home town crowd 2-0 over Toronto.
Montreal is in fact 18-12 after playing to 3 or more consecutive "unders" over the last 2-seasons.
On the other side of the rink: The Flyers are 13-6-2-0 overall and 8-4 in front of the home town crowd; they won a hard fought game on the 20th on the road in Washington, prevailing 5-4 in OT, after losing 8-7 to Tampa Bay on the 18th.
There are a couple of significant negative ATS trends that Philadelphia has exhibited over the last 2-seasons which can't be ignored; its just 30-33 (-7.6 units) after allowing 4 goals or more; also 43-51 (-9.3 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.
Bottom line: These teams last met just last week on the 16th and the Habs beat the Flyers 3-0 at the Bell Center; I'm going against the immediate "revenge factor" here though, and believe that Montreal is playing at too a high a level right now, and especially on the road, to turn down this favorable line against a team that it "knows" can beat.
Carey Price is the sharper of the 2-goaltenders right now (league best 2.00 GAA), and in the end I believe this will be the biggest factor (also not that Montreal has killed off 26 of 27 penalties over its last 6 games, holding the Leafs scoreless in 3 attempts).
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the MONTREAL CANADIENS!
Marc Lawrence
Denver +9.5
Both of the AFC West Division rivals traded home wins in this series last year but if the Chargers want to claim the AFC West title for the fifth straight season, they'll have to improve on their current 0-2 division record. San Diego may very well make another late-season run that would make Zenyatta look sluggish, but our database is not enthralled with this double-digit line. For starters, the Chargers are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven as double-digit division chalk while HC Norv Turner is a moneyburning 15-27 ATS at home versus division foes. It gets worse, as San Diego is just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS on Mondays versus a division foe off a SU and ATS win while the Broncos are 4-0 SU and ATS versus a division foe with rest. Our database notes than Monday night double-digit division road dogs with revenge are 9-3 ATS since 1980, including 4-0 ATS when facing a .666 or less opponent off an ATS win. After two straight wins, the Chargers may very well be back… but at this price they had better be. We're not buying. Grab the generous number. We recommend a 3-unit play on Denver.
Rocketman
3* Utah -11
Sacramento is 0-6 ATS this year against poor defensive teams allowing 99 points per game or more. Sacramento is allowing 107.2 points per game on the road this year. Sacramento comes in losers of 7 of their last 8 games overall. Utah has won 7 of their last 9 games overall. Kings are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Kings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Kings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Jazz are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Jazz are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Jazz are 36-15-3 ATS in their last 54 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Jazz are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 Monday games.
The Duke's Sports
Denver (+9) for 1.5 Units
We believe the Chargers' winning momentum will stall out here; after all, they're 1-5 ATS off a bye week and 1-3 ATS off a bye vs a division opponent. Denver, on the other hand, sports a 6-0 ATS mark as a conference dog vs an opponent with rest. The Broncos have had turnover trouble at times but SD is 23rd in the NFL in take-aways and has their share of trouble holding onto the ball at times and continues to struggle on specialty teams. Denver controls a perfect 8-0 ATS mark in November off a division game vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. The road team in this series dominated each game last season. SD should again be without key receiving cog - Gates - and RB Matthews. Our concern is the pass rush of Denver (just 13 sacks). SD QB Rivers can carve up a defense if given 3 seconds each play. But Denver has an improved running game that can help feed the already prolific pass game to hang around. We'll take the points.
HELMUT
Duke / Marquette Over 149
Don Wallace
4* San Antonio -3.5
4* Atlanta -3
Executive
200 Denver +9
Lenny Stevens
10* Denver
KELSO
10 UNITS SD CHARGERS -9
10 UNITS SD CHARGERS UNDER 50
5 UNIT 2 TEAM PARLAY SD CHARGERS & UNDER 50
15 UNITS PACIFIC TIGERS -7
10 UNITS WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS +2.5
5 UNITS UTAH UTES +6
3 UNITS PEPPERDINE WAVES +6
Jeff Benton
40 Dime Chargers
Last Oct. 19, on a Monday night, the Broncos went to San Diego with a 5-0 SU and ATS record and – as a 3½-point underdog – upset the Chargers 34-23, then embarked on their bye week. Since returning from that bye, Denver has played 19 games and won exactly five times. During this stretch, the Broncos are also just 6-13 ATS, including a 32-3 home loss to the Chargers as a 6½-point underdog.
In fact, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and all six wins were absolute blowouts: 35-27, 48-20, 41-3, 23-3, 52-21 and 32-3. Going back to the start of the 2004 series, the Broncos have just two spread-covers in 12 clashes with the Bolts.
True, Denver is coming off an impressive 49-29 whipping of the Chiefs as a one-point home underdog, snapping an 0-4 SU and ATS slump. However, since beating San Diego last year to run their record to 5-0, the Broncos have won and covered in consecutive games just once (and they had 10 days off between those two particular games).
Meanwhile, the Chargers come out of their bye week riding their first two-game winning streak of the season, beating the Titans 33-25 at home and the Texans 29-23 on the road. At home this year, the Chargers are 3-1 SU and ATS, with the only loss being a 23-20 setback to New England. San Diego committed four turnovers in that one and lost despite outgaining the Patriots 363-179 (Tom Brady had just 159 passing yards).
In fact, even with that loss, the Chargers at home are averaging 33 points and 429 yards per game while giving up 17.8 points and 258.2 yards per game (including just 58.5 rushing ypg). By comparison, look at Denver’s defensive numbers this season (home and road): 28 ppg, 373 total ypg, 143.1 rushing ypg (including 162.7 rushing ypg on the road). And as noted above, the Broncos have been totally unable to stop the Chargers’ offense the last four years, with San Diego scoring 35, 48, 41, 23, 38, 52, 23 and 32 points in the last eight meetings, averaging 36.5 ppg at home.
Then there’s this from the pointspread trend department: Denver is in ATS slumps of 2-8 against AFC teams, 7-18-1 versus AFC West rivals, 2-5 on the road (all as an underdog) and 1-4 following a victory. San Diego is on ATS surges of 20-6 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 5-0 in November. Also, the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Finally, if you’re worried about this being too big of a pointspread for San Diego to cover, don’t be. And here’s why: If you go back to November 2008, the SU winner has covered the spread 34 of Denver’s last 36 contests, including all nine games this season. The SU winner is also 9-0 ATS in San Diego’s games this season and 25-4-1 ATS in its last 30 contests, and the winner has cashed at an 8-0-2 ATS clip in this rivalry the last five years (3-0 ATS when the line is nine points or higher).
Translation: The odds overwhelmingly indicate that the winner of this game will cover the number. And with the way the Broncos’ defense has been shredded this year, I cannot envision Denver winning this game. San Diego comes out of its bye, fixes its special-teams woes and rolls 41-17.
Don Wallace
4* San Diego -9