POINTWISE PHONES
3* New England
Sir Duke Sports
10* Monday Night GOY
New England Patriots +3
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BET
3% NEW ORLEANS –1.5
NEW ORLEANS -1.5 New England 57
NE dominated the Jets last week and won by 17 but they were greatly aided by four Mark Sanchez interceptions and one lost fumble. They were out rushed by NY, 4.0ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed the Jets 7.0yps to 5.3yps and out gained the Jets overall 5.3yppl to 4.6yppl. They also threw the ball 20 more times to help create the difference in the yppl numbers. The Saints went to TB and dominated from the get go in their 38-7 win. They out rushed TB 5.2ypr to 5.1ypr (183-119), out passed them 6.4yps to 2.8yps and out gained TB overall, 5.7yppl to 3.7yppl. NE averages 7.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. The Saints average 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, a whopping 7.9yps against 6.3yps and 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.4yps against 5.7yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. The Saints qualify in momentum situation, which is 81-38-7. They also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 26-8-2. Numbers favor NO by five points and predict about 59 points. NE has played three good teams this year on the road (Jets were decent when they played them) and lost all three of those games. Granted, they had Indy defeated until the key fourth down, fourth quarter call. Saints numbers are better than NE and they are playing at home with some solid situations in their favor. It’s not just that NO throws the ball better than NE, they rush the ball better, averaging 155 yards a game. The defense is on the same level as NE. NE is a very good team, but I don’t think they are as good as NO, who really thrives in the dome in these types of games. I would like to play the over but this total is just way too high to attempt to win this and NO is a more balanced team on offense than most people think and their willingness to run the ball obviously eats the clock. NEW ORLEANS 34 NEW ENGLAND 24
DOUBLE DRAGON
PATRIOTS +3 (-130)
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
2* N.Orleans/N.England Over
Sportbook Guru
10 Units New Orleans -1
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
2009 BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR! REASON FOR PICK
These two teams have been dissected to death; their strengths and weaknesses poured over by the Nations "top minds"; for a number of different reasons I believe the Saints will remain unbeaten as they take care of the Patriots in front of the New Orleans faithful:
"They are good at everything," Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. "They don't make many mistakes. They cause a lot of problems. They're very explosive. They can put up a lot of points in a hurry and they have. It's hard to give them any more compliments than that."
The Patriots offensive line is banged up.
New England has had its hands full with the Saints over the last few years, no matter the location; 1-6 ATS its last seven vs. New Orleans.
On the other side of the field: The Saints average 36.9 ppg; 12 different players have scored TD's.
Running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell have rushed for more than 500 yards apiece, while Bush has scored five TDs and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a change-of-pace option.
The Saints always play tough at home; 7-3 ATS their last 10 at the Superdome.
Bottom line: If you give Brady the time to throw, he'll beat you; look for the Saints to apply immense pressure and making getting into the backfield a top priority.
Let's be honest, these teams are evenly matched in every category, but there are two overriding factors in this game that tip the scale for me:
I feel that Drew Brees and company are simply the hungrier man/team, and also believe that home field advantage and the raucous New Orleans fans can't be overlooked in this case.
New Orleans already had one statement game this season vs the the Giants (48-27/10.18.09) and absolutely crushed them and they will be up to the task one more time as Brees continues his assault on the leagues offensive stats and his mission to get the respect he feels he deserves (and rightly so); look for the SAINTS to move to 8-3 ATS this year as a favorite and for the Patriots to fall to 1-3 ATS their last four on the road!
10* New Orleans
Steven Budin
50 DIME New Orleans Saints
Sports Bets Now
1 Unit Pacers +2.5
Al DeMarco
30 Dime - New Orleans
Two weeks ago in my weekly TV show and various radio interviews, I was all over New England at Indianapolis, telling everyone to grab the points with the Patriots and even suggesting a smaller moneyline wager because I believed they were going to win the game outright. A cover they got, but you know how the final score went thanks to Bill Belichick's fourth-down gamble. Lost among the controversy over that call was the fact the Pats could not stop Indy's offense after opening up a big double-digit lead in the first half. Peyton Manning kept firing, marching the Colts up and down the field, putting them in the position to win the game if they got the ball back one more time, and Belichick's gamble presented them with that golden opportunity.
Both the Colts and Saints were undefeated and playing at home when the Patriots came calling. The difference between the two clubs? Indianapolis can't run the ball a lick; New Orleans entered the weekend with the league's No. 5 rushing attack as Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush have spearheaded a unit that's averaged 154.3 yards per game (4.8 ypc). That triumvirate tackles a New England defense that allows opposing ball carriers to average 4.4 yards per carry. Last week at home the Jets' Thomas Jones ran for 103 yards on 21 carries despite his team falling behind by 3 TDs early so this is not a stop unit that can be counted on.
The Patriots have more problems defensively that just stopping the run; their pass rush has generated just 18 sacks on the season. You don't beat Drew Brees, who has one of the quickest - if not the quickest - release in pro football, unless you pressure him continuously. Just ask Philadelphia's blitzers. Or those of the Giants. And with a strong ground game to rely on for the first time in his tenure in New Orleans, it's no wonder Brees is helming an offense averaging 36.9 points and 420.5 yards per game.
Where the Saints have been particularly dangerous this year is in the second half of games where they've outscored their foes 188-78. That margin swells to 105-24 in the fourth quarter. Both stats are troublesome for a New England defense that couldn't withstand the second-half comebacks of the Colts and Broncos, two previous undefeated teams they lost to on the road this season. And the Patriots often seem to have a patchwork defense held together by bailing wire and aging veterans like Junior Seau.
With the focus on Brees and the Saints' prolific scoring attack, their defense often gets overlooked, but on that side of the ball they entered the weekend leading the league with 29 takeaways, including 20 interceptions. Darren Sharper has rejuvenated the secondary and that takeaway figure is stunning considering the team had just 22 for all of last season.
Put aside the Belichick mystique against undefeated teams for a moment; he's 0-3 SU in those match-ups this season, losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts, all on the road. I'm telling you to put that aside, but I know the public isn't and they're also buying into the "don't bet against the Patriots as an underdog" shtick, too. That's why the price of this game has dropped steadily all week long. But public perception is often wrong, especially on Monday nights, and tonight will be no exception as the Saints expose New England's defensive flaws while proving to the NFL - and the viewing public - they are for real, breaking open a tight game after intermission before posting a solid 35-24 win.
Strategy Note:
The price of this game ranges from 1 to 3 depending on where you play it. That's a huge margin, but that's why you've got to shop around before placing your wager. Here's the deal: I would buy down the 1/2 point if you've got a line of 1 1/2, 2, 2 1/2, 3 or even 3 1/2. Now there is absolutely no reason you should be stuck with the Saints at 3 or 3 1/2, but who knows if your local guy is any good? In Vegas right now, as of late Sunday night, New Orleans is -1 at the Hilton and Mirage. Yet I can walk down the strip and find them at -2 1/2 as well. And offshore, I see one place - and you know the place that always inflates the price on favorites - that they're shockingly -3. So, again, buy down the 1/2 point between 1 1/2 and 3 1/2 points. Always better to be safe than sorry.
Bryan Leonard
Monday Night Massacre
New England at New Orleans
The Patriots have gotten a lot of love from the bettors in this game as the line continues to be pushed down. They are a public team with a strong recent history and Bill Belichick has been an excellent underdog. New England is 23-10-1 ATS catching points the past nine years. But this is also a team in a bad scheduling spot. Coming out of their bye on November 1st the Pats played division rival Miami, traveled to Indianapolis to face their biggest playoff rival on Monday Night Football, hosted division rival New York in a revenge situation, and travel to Miami next week where a victory will clinch the division. In the meantime they are going to New Orleans to play the Saints in a non-conference affair. The Patriots are 0-3 straight up this season in true road games, losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts. Their only win away from home this season was in London where they spanked the one win Bucs. While the Patriots have played important games week after week the Saints haven't been tested since beating Atlanta in this very same venue four weeks ago. They are off Carolina, St Louis and Tampa Bay. New Orleans has played to the level of their competition this season. They have been at their best when taking on teams in the playoff hunt. They beat Philadelphia on the road by 26, the NY Giants at home by 21, Miami on the road by 12 and Atlanta at home by 8. They beat the Jets by 14 here, the same team who the Patriots have split with. New Orleans hasn't played well as of late for two reasons. They have played an easy schedule so they have been disinterested, and they have had some injuries to key personnel. But word is that New Orleans is getting some of those key contributors back tonight. New Orleans has one of the best pass defenses in the league and they are a perfect 8-0 at home this year winning every game by 8 points or more. Now in basically a win and cover situation we get a focused host who knows this is the biggest regular season game they will play in the last three months of the season. You know the Patriots can't say that.
PLAY NEW ORLEANS
Gold Club NBA Selection
Philadelphia at Dallas
The Sixers are playing their second game of a back to back situation after losing last night in San Antonio 97-89 getting 12 points. Tonight marks their third game in four days with the starters logging 37, 35 and 41 fourth quarter minutes. Tonight they are playing without rest and getting less points from a team outscoring the opposition by a full point more than the team they played last night in San Antonio. Therefore we have a worse scheduling situation for Philadelphia and they are getting less points from arguably a better team. Dallas is also playing their third game in four days but they had last night off. As opposed to the Sixers the Maverick starters logged just 28, 9 and 20 fourth quarter minutes the past three games. As a whole the Dallas starters don't put in the extended minutes as their Sixers counterparts. Dallas is off an embarrassing 111-95 loss at Cleveland. The Mavericks allowed an effective field goal percentage in that game of .635. It's the first time all season an opponent has shot over 60% against Dallas in this category. They had held their previous two opponents to under 100 points before that game. Dallas is 25-15 ATS off a loss the past two years including a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Not only have the Mavericks covered the spread after those defeats this year but they have done so by a combined 79 1/2 points! Dallas has cashed 3 of the last 4 times they hosted the Sixers and with only New Jersey and Memphis on deck we expect Dallas to be fully focused here.
PLAY DALLAS
Sean Michaels
25 Dime New Orleans Saints
Anthony Redd
20 Dime New Orleans Saints
Dave Malinsky
4* PHILADELPHIA over DALLAS
Usually when we see an NBA line this high we are dealing with a dominating favorite that has the tools to build a margin, or an underdog that shows issues when having to step way up in class. That is not the case here at all, and the oddsmakers have set this one far beyond the game flow that we project. Dallas brings severe limitations in terms of this role. As long as Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry are in uniform there is the veteran savvy to go out and win games, but without Josh Howard, Erick Damiper, and Quintin Ross the depth to blow anyone out is not there. Tonight they will not have the mind-set either, with this being the fifth game in seven days, including a court change each time, and they head back on the road immediately afterwards. Rick Carlisle has gone 4-7 as a double figure home favorite since taking over in Dallas, and this is a setting in which he would be more than happy to merely grind out a win and move on. The fact that he gave his team yesterday off, instead of practicing for this matchup, was an admission on his part of how grueling this travel stretch is (they will play eight games in 12 days, all with court changes). For the 76ers there is not culture shock in terms of stepping up in class ? having played at Cleveland, Boston and San Antonio in the last 10 days this actually represents a step down. While they lack the end-game polish of the league?s elite, which leaves outright wins out of their grasp, note that they went 3-0 ATS against that tough trio, losing the games by a combined 17 points. They are also no strangers to playing the second night of back-to-back games on the road, going 3-0 ATS as an underdog in those settings, and they will get a boost off the bench tonight with the return of Elton Brand (he could have played last night, but they do not think he is ready for back-to-back outings yet, so he will get floor action in this one since they have Tuesday off). Philadelphia led at both Cleveland and Boston in the fourth quarter of those recent close defeats, and the 76ers never lost contact at San Antonio tonight. They are in the hunt all the way here against an opponent that lacks the athleticism, depth and energy to throw a knockout punch.
National Sports Service Picks
4* New Orleans -1.5 over New England
3* Memphis/Utah OVER 207.5
3* Philadelphia/Dallas OVER 200