Andre Gomes
MIL / CHI UNDER 195.5
Analysis: I believe that this game will be a low scoring affair and according to my numbers we have a nice 5-points edge and this play was close to be a best bet. Note that we are not dealing with two confident teams right now, as both teams have lost their last 4 games and so, they will look to bounce back tonight.
The Bulls were a top defensive team in the first 2 weeks of the competition, but they were literally spanked in every loss coming for this game. In fact, they allowed 108, 112, 122 and 105 points in those games, however I feel that this won't happen tonight because the Bucks don't have the same power as the Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers and the Jazz - the Bulls' last 4 opponents. During the 4-game losing streak, the Bulls were outmuscled and outplayed in the front. Joakim Noah couldn't handle on his own the powerful opponent's frontcourt, as the Bulls allowed 60, 52, 50 and 62 points in the paint in those contests! For instance, Pau Gasol shot 9-15 FG, LaMarcus Aldridge 10-16 FG and Boozer 12-14 FG against them. The good news for the Bulls is that the Bucks don't have a powerful frontcourt and so they won't surely be massacred in the front. Late news tells us that Andrew Bogut is probable for this contest, but he will certainly be rusty coming from an injury and he isn't also the typical dominant center that the Bulls should be afraid off. Bottom line, I expect the Bulls to have a better defensive performance tonight because the Bucks don't have the same weapons as the Bulls latest opponents.
Meanwhile, the Bulls offense is a stagnant unit. For only once, they topped the century mark in points this season and they are shooting only 43.3% from the field - good for the 4th worst mark in the league! The Bucks defense is a pretty underrated unit, as they are the 8th most efficient defense in the league. Like the Bulls, the Bucks faced some top offensive teams lately and it isn't a surprise that in their 4 losses, they allowed more than 100 points in each contest, so in order to get back to the wins, head coach Scott Skilles knows what to do: defense!
These two teams have already faced each other this season and the Bulls won by 83-81. In that game. both teams didn't reach the 40% mark from the field and even though I don't expect such thing to happen tonight, we are dealing with a 195.5 points line, when my fair line is 190 points. Take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 195.5
Wildcat
10* New Orleans
Craig Davis
30 Dime Saints
Street Rosenthal
*200 New Orleans Saints -1(Buy 1/2 point to -1)
*200 Milwaukee Bucks -2
NSA
20* NFL New England +1½
20* CBB St Joe's Pk
10* NFL New England @ New Orleans UNDER 57
10* NBA Chicago +3
10* NBA Utah -10
10* CBB Hofstra -7½
Special K
20* New England
Wayne Root
4* NO SAINTS