Pointwise Phone Service
3* DENVER
Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
DENVER (+3 at -120 odds) 21 Pittsburgh 16
I've won twice with Denver as 3-Star Best Bets this season, at home against New England and at San Diego, but I passed on the underrated Broncos last week because the situation was against them (although I still made them a strong opinion). I was sort of glad that Denver lost last week at Baltimore because it assured that the Broncos would remain an underrated team. That blowout loss sets up Denver in a 48-18-3 ATS home bounce-back situation that plays on mediocre or good teams after a loss of 20 points or more. I certainly don't expect Denver to play poorly at home, where visiting teams have so much trouble with the thin air at high altitude. Good teams have regularly been beaten at Mile High, including Dallas and New England as favorites this year. Denver is particularly good at home when they are considered the inferior team (i.e. favored by 2 or less or getting points). The Broncos are an incredible 33-7-2 ATS at home as a favorite of 2 or less, a pick, or an underdog since 1981 and that trend has worked for every coach that's been here. The Broncos are 19-1-1 ATS in their last 21 home games from -2 to dog, including the 2 wins this season. Pittsburgh's injured riddled defensive line rotation will have players gasping for air, as you need a deep rotation of defensive linemen in order to survive the high altitude and that is something that Pittsburgh does not have with DE Aaron Smith's backup Travis Kirschke now also out with an injury.
Not only does Denver have a great history at home against good teams but the Broncos are just as good as Pittsburgh and should be a 3 point favorite in this game. Let's take a look at the numbers. Pittsburgh has averaged 6.3 yards per play on offense against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate the Steelers' attack at 1.0 yppl better than average with Rashard Mendenhall as the main ball carrier. Denver's defense is actually slightly better than Pittsburgh's offense, as the Broncos have allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, which makes that unit 1.1 yppl better than average. Denver actually played just as well as normal on defense in their 7-30 loss last week, allowing just 4.8 yppl to a Baltimore offense that would average 5.9 yppl at home against an average team. They just didn't force any turnovers for the first time all season and the offense set them up in bad field position.
Denver's offense did play poorly last week (3.5 yppl) and the offense now rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Pittsburgh's defense is good, but not great this season, as the Steeler rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team.
Pittsburgh does have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Denver's offense and an overall advantage of 0.3 yppl over the Broncos, but Denver has a 2.5 points edge in projected turnovers with quarterback Kyle Orton still without a meaningful interception this season (his lone pick was on a Hail Mary at the end of the half against New England). Both teams are bad in special teams and my math model favors Denver by 3 points overall.
In addition to Denver's great history at home in this price range, the Broncos also apply to a 48-18-3 ATS Monday night home team angle while Pittsburgh's long tradition of failure as a road favorite the week after a victory (23-42-3 ATS since 1980) has continued under coach Mike Tomlin (1-8 ATS). I'll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 at -115 or better.
SIXTH SENSE
3% DENVER +3
Denver was blown out at Baltimore last week, 30-7. They were out gained in that game, 4.7yppl to 3.4yppl, including being out passed 6.2yps to 3.4yps. Pittsburgh comes off their bye week after defeating Minnesota 27-17 the week before. The Steelers needed two defensive scores in that game to get the victory. Denver averages just 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl but the defense has been solid. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.2yps against 6.3yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Pittsburgh averages 7.6yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Denver qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 48-18-0. Numbers favor Denver by 6.5 points and predict about 32 points. Denver is still getting disrespected. Denver has already held good offenses like Dallas, New England and San Diego to an average of 17 points per game. When you add in last weeks game against Baltimore, their average against above average offenses is 20 points per game allowed. Pittsburgh has faced just one good defense this year and that was Chicago, where they scored just 14 points. They’ve allowed an average of 20 points on the road in three games, against lesser competition than what Denver presents on Monday. Strong situation and way too much line value to ignore Denver in this game. DENVER 20 PITTSBURGH 14
KELSO
25 Units Steelers
James Patrick
5* Pot of Gold Selection
Steelers vs. Broncos
Play: Under
The Broncos are Under the Total at a (6-1) ATS mark this season and have posted Under the Total winning tickets in 8 of 9 overall. Pittsburgh usually struggles when they head west and we expect an old school smash mouth football game in the Mile High City on Monday Night Football.
Underdog
Broncos
Underground Sports Connection
200* New Orleans Hornets
root goy denver
BEN BURNS
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
Play Pittsburgh -1
I'm laying the points with PITTSBURGH. The Broncos come in with both the better record and home field advantage. However, they finally got exposed in last week's blowout loss at Baltimore. I had the Ravens in that game and I feel that the Broncos are in for another very tough match this week. The Steelers are off a big win over a strong Minnesota team. Including that victory, in addition to having won four straight overall, they're now a highly profitable 47-27-3 ATS (55-22 SU) their last 77 "Week 5 through Week 9" games. They've had a bye since then, too. Note that they're 4-0 SU the last four times they were coming off a bye, including a 38-10 road win last season. Both teams like to run the ball and both teams have been great at stopping the run. However, the Steelers are even stronger in that area. Indeed, they're #1 at stopping the run in the league (Broncos are #3) and they haven't allowed an opposing back to reach the 100 yard mark in their last 25 regular season games. Perhaps more importantly, the Steelers have the superior passing attack. Rothlisberger, a proven winner, currently ranks third in league with over 2000 passing yards already. The Steelers have won 22 of their last 30 Monday Night games while Denver has gone just 15-19 on Monday Nights during that time. I look for the champs, 14-6 their last 20 November games, to continue that primetime success, covering the small number along the way. *8 AFC GOW
Jim Feist
20* NBA High Roller
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS / LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
TAKE: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Reason: What a difference an off season makes. The Hornets had the fifth best scoring defense in the league last year, allowing just over 94 ppg. This season, the reeling Hornets (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) are allowing well over 100 ppg. In fact, the Hornets have allowed over 107 points in four of their first seven games. The only reason the Lakers didn't eclipse that total last night was because the Hornets never were in the game and the Lakers put it into cruise control early in that contest. Still, the Lakers got over 100 points in an easy 104-88 win. The Hornets are in the midst of a grueling three game west coast swing, having lost last night at the Lakers, playing back-to-back games with tonight's contest against the Clippers, and then traveling to Phoenix to face the Suns (three games in just four nights). Meanwhile, the Clippers are riding a three game winning streak after their win over Memphis on Saturday, 113-110. Despite a lackluster start to the game and trailing by as much as 11-points, the Clippers rallied for the win. The Clippers are one game from .500 after a terrible start to the season that saw them lose their first four games. The Clippers hope to keep near that .500 mark until they get the services of injured first round draft choice Blake Griffin (out indefinitely with a broken knee cap). This version of the Hornets is a far cry from the team that made the playoffs the last two years. All of my numbers point to a easy Clippers win here on Monday, so lay the short number and enjoy the win.
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Pittsburgh Steelers
I gave you 3 underdog outright winners Saturday with Kansas St, Stanford, and Purdue.
I follow that up with two more dogs on Sunday with Carolina, and the big play on the Chargers, and even a miracle pick six cover with Seattle as the free pick.
The entire day however was about San Diego winning the game outright.
The last Chargers drive was the epitome of the Giants season as I illustrated in my breakdown on Sunday. They went right down the field without resistance.
Truth of the matter: Chargers were in control of that game from start to finish. There's your 5 point dog to win outright making it a perfect 5-0 weekend.
The NFL season has hit it's halfway mark, and I'm telling you right now that I am just getting this train started. You will see nothing but consistency in a very positive way.
We have arrived at the launch pad, and we are now ready to take off as this 2nd half of the season is going to be epic.
We will keep building up for the bowl games, NFL playoffs and you already know my "Super Bowl" history.
It's about to get really good, really fast. Simple as that.
Now watch me bang home this Monday winner and make it a 3-day run of +100 dimes and considering how on fire I have been with weeknight college football winners, it's shaping up to be another big winning week.
Long way to go here in 2009. Long way to go. Let's keep the winning momentum going tonight.
15 DIME - PITTSBURGH STEELERS - (if line is 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. If it's 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2 1/2.) Who do you trust tonight? Ben Rothliesberger of Kyle Orton?
For my dollar, it's Big Ben. Simple as that.
Last week the Broncos were exposed by an aggressive Ravens defense that had a week to prepare for Mr.Orton and the Denver offense.
Baltimore flat owned Orton all day long with a variety of blitzes, stunts and just an all out great gameplan defensively.
Now the Steelers come in here off a bye week, and if you don't think for one second Dick Lebeau won't have an even better gameplan for Orton, then you don't know Lebeau.
I am not taking anything away from their 6-1 start, it's been great but if you really examine it, they are a couple of plays away from being 4-3.
They should have never beaten Cincinnati with the deflected pass, Dallas was 1st and goal inside the last minute and couldn't punch it in.
And the Patriots blew a 14 point 2nd half lead which is something a Bill Belichick coached team just doesn't do.
My question is this. If the Broncos were 4-3 what would this line be tonight? Steelers -6...-7?
Value in this game tonight sides with the Steelers.
Now I know what you are thinking. You are thinking the Steelers haven't played anybody. Only 3 of their 7 opponents have a better than .500 record while the Broncos played 5 of 7.
So you are correct in your thinking. The Steelers have had it pretty easy so far this year but you can't discount the advantage Pittsburgh has coming in here off their bye week. It is huge.
Would I be tempted to take Denver if the Steelers didn't have 2 weeks to prepare? Oh most certainly.
But you give me the defending Super Bowl champs 2 weeks to gameplan you, and I will gladly roll the dice with Pittsburgh every time.
I just can't get the Ravens game out of my mind. Just can't.
The Broncos offense was just terrible and what concerned me even more was Denver had 2 weeks to prepare a great gameplan in which to attack the Ravens. I'm talking 2 full weeks to prepare and here is what you got.
10 drives total for the game with 8 of those drives ending with a punt. 3 times they went 3 and out. 2 times they picked up one first down and then punted. 200 total yards for the game. 3 of 13 on 3rd down. Average yards per play 3.4 yards.
You were able to do all that with 2 weeks to prepare!?!? A lot of teams start off the year being perceived as much better than they are until they start really facing good defenses at which time your offensive weaknesses start getting exposed.
I mean, let's be honest here folks, he is still Kyle Orton and he will never be confused with John Elway.
As far as Pittsburgh is concerned, they seem to always peak in November and December. It is their mantra to start slow and finish strong.
The fact of the matter is Denver will not be able to consistently run the football which means, just like last week, winning this game will fall squarley on the shoulders of Orton. He failed miserably last week and he will again fail miserably this week.
He couldn't do a thing versus the Ravens defense last week, and I saw nothing in that game which leads me to believe he will be able to do a thing against Pittsburgh's defense tonight.
And your 3rd string right tackle faces Harrison all night long. Ouch.
Bottom line is this. If Kyle Orton plays perfect football tonight and beats me, I will tip my cap to him but quite frankly I don't see that happening.
Since he took over as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has coached his team 4 times on Monday night. He is 4-0.
Let's go ahead and make him 5-0 as the Steelers defense makes it a long night for Mr. Orton and Big Ben does what Big Ben always does, come up big in the big game in front of the Monday night crowd.
The Duke's Sports
Phoenix (pick) for 1.5 Units
The Suns have established a nice offensive rhythm as Jason Richardson and Channing Frye look to be good additions. And the bench is productive with Barbosa and Dudley leading the way. Phoenix sports a 10-4 ATS mark in this series and should deliver after all, the 76ers are still in a transition mode trying to establish an identity under HC Eddie Jordan. Phil is just 2-8 ATS unrested, and 4-10 ATS vs a team with a road winning % above .600. And the 76ers have not exhibited any better defense than the Suns at this point in the season. Suns the call.
Craig Davis
40 Dime - Steelers
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Pittsburgh (-3) over Denver
Pittsburgh has won 4 consecutive games when playing on a Monday Night and they have also won 3 of the last 4 games vs. AFC West Division Opponents. Pittsburgh has won 7 of the last 9 games when playing in the month of November and they have also won 17 of the last 24 games when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points.
ATS
3 Units Pittsburgh