Strike Point Sports
2-Unit Play. Take New York Jets -1.5 over Miami
The Jets should get a major boost with Braylon Edwards, but more so I think Mark Sanchez will bounce back with another efficient effort and work towards getting his team back in the win column. After some bad turnovers New York will dial back the plays and should focus on getting Thomas Jones and Leon Washington set up with the running game. The ground attack and more defense will be enough on Monday night.
Sixth Sense
Opinion
NY Jets -2 MIAMI 36.5
Much like the Tennessee game, the situations in this game point towards Miami but the fundamentals point towards the Jets. The Jets lost at NO last week as I expected and were out gained 5.9yps to 3.6yps and 5.4yppl to 4.2yppl. That’s exactly the way I expected that game to go. The Jets can’t throw the ball and I expected NO to be able to shut down their passing game and also be able to move the ball through the air. Miami throttled a lost Buffalo team, 38-10, feasting off of three Bills turnovers and doing what they do best and that is run the ball. They ran for 250 yards at 5.6ypr while limiting Buffalo to just 46 yards rushing at 2.7ypr. In typical Miami fashion, they averaged just 3.1yps while Buffalo averaged 5.0yps. Overall they out gained the Bills 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl. Miami controlled the clock for 37 of 60 minutes in the game. The Jets offense is well below average this year. They average just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.6yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has been stellar, allowing just 4.6yps against 6.6yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They also get Calvin Pace back from suspension this week. Miami averages 5.0ypr against 4.6ypr but just 4.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl overall. The rush defense has been very good, allowing just 2.9ypr against 3.7ypr and 5.7yppl against 5.9yppl overall. Miami qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 31-8-0. They also qualify in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 125-64-5, 541-412-30 and 451-292-21. Numbers favor the Jets by four points and predict about 23 points. The Jets have won seven of the past ten games played here, including three in a row and two of the three losses were by two and four points. A loss would not give them the cover here obviously but they have fared very well in Miami. I have a hard time taking Miami here, knowing I am not getting enough points, knowing Miami can’t throw the ball if their life depended on it (especially with a young qb) and knowing how good the Jets defense is. The Jets were just 1-3 as a road favorite last year but that lone win came here in Miami. Meanwhile, Miami was just 1-3 as a home dog last year and is 0-1 this year. Under is probably the best play here. NY JETS 14 MIAMI 13
Pointwise Phone Service
2* MIAMI
Al DeMarco
10 Dime - New York Jets
Maddux Sports
3 units Miami +1.5
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy Jets/Dolphins Monday Night MASSACRE on Miami Dolphins +2
This is Miami's chance to get back in the division race. The Dolphins picked up their first win of the season last week in a dominant 38-10 home win over Buffalo. Their previous home game they should have beaten the Colts after holding the ball for 45 of the 60 minutes, but Peyton Manning would not allow his team to lose and he made the most of the 15 minutes the Colts actually had the ball, coming away with a 27-23 road win. But Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning, and he was awful last week on the road against the New Orleans Saints. Sanchez threw a pick-6 to Darren Sharper and fumbled in the end zone to give New Orleans two touchdowns. These are two power running teams, with both having quarterbacks that don't have to do much more than manage the game. That's why the advantage lies with the Dolphins because they run the ball better and stop the run better than the Jets do. Miami is averaging 183 rushing yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry. New York is averaging 130 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins. New York is allowing 100 rushing yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry. Miami is allowing 61 rushing yards/game and a superb 2.9 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins again. The Jets are just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game since 1992. The numbers don't lie folks, and this game will certainly come down to which team runs the ball and stops the run better. Take Miami and the points.
DR BOB
Opinion
NY Jets (-1.5) 20 MIAMI 13
Despite last week's loss to the NFL's best team in New Orleans, the Jets still look like a legitimate playoff team led by a very good defense that has allowed just 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. That includes holding good offensive teams Houston to just 3.8 yppl, New England to just 4.5 yppl, and New Orleans to 5.6 yppl (the Saints are averaging 6.4 yppl for the season). Miami is a strong running team, averaging 184 ground yards per game at 5.0 ypr, but the Jets defend the run better than average (4.3 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.7 ypr against an average team) and Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne doesn't appear ready for prime time after averaging just 3.1 yards per pass play in his first start last week against Buffalo. My math model projects just 237 total yards for Miami and favors the Jets by 9 1/2 points. However, there are some situations that are favoring Miami in this game, including a 176-98-5 ATS statistical indicator, and that will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet, but I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less
Steven Budin
25 Dime - Jets
Seabass
200 CFL Calgary
10 Jets
Steam 100* Jets/Miami under
Dave Malinsky
Jets/Dolphins First Half Special
4* Under 18
Under In a game that essentially has a pair of rookie QBs going head-to-head under extreme pressure (yes, Chad Henne is in his second season, but he is a rookie in terms of game experience), we have a good idea how Rex Ryan and Tony Sparano want to play this one try to eliminate early mistakes that can give anything away, and make the focus forcing the opposing offense into to provide the easy opportunities. That gives us a First Half flow that we can work with, especially with 17s out there as win numbers. It is not as though we are asking for an unusual tempo anyway from these two both have had more runs than passes, with neither wanting the QB to carry more of a load than is necessary. But that tightens even more here. Mark Sanchez had a disastrous outing at New Orleans last week, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble, with two of those turnovers being returned directly for TDs. Ryan will try to ease him into this one, and with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington providing an able run balance he can attack that way. The other side of the equation brings more than meets the eye off of last week?s results. Yes, the Dolphins hammered Buffalo 38-10, creating the impression that all was fine in Hennes debut as starter. It wasnt. The passing game produced an anemic 3.1 yards per attempt, with a stunning count of six sacks in 28 attempts. That latter number can not be emphasized enough. Despite never trailing at any time, and holding a lead of at least 14 points over the final 35 minutes of play, when play action fakes were a part of almost all pass plays, Henne was sacked as many times in those 28 attempts as the Bills have picked up in 149 attempts in all other games. Now Henne has to go up against not only one of the most complex defenses in the league, but also one that gets the boost of Calvin Pace returning to the lineup (suspension served), adding another pass rushing threat. The Jets have only allowed one offensive TD in the first half of a game this season, and that is despite facing the likes of veterans Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub and Kerry Collins. They can not only throw things at Henne that he is not ready for, but remember how Ryan completely shackled those Dolphin Wildcat sets in the playoffs last January. So why not the full game Under? Because at some point the trailing team is going to have to open up, and with Sanchez and Henne already having thrown Pick 6s this season we would not want the early flow to become muddle by late mistakes. Our focus will be the first two quarters, with the pleasure of cashing the ticket at halftime.
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
50* Play Philadelphia (-105) over Colorado
Philadelphia has won 3 consecutive games when playing in the 4th game of a playoff series and they have also won 8 of the last 11 games when playing on a Monday. Cliff Lee has won 4 consecutive games vs. NL West Division Opponents and he is 2-0 vs. Colorado over his career with an ERA of 1.13.
25* Play Washington (-165) over New Jersey
25* Play Chicago (-165) over Calgary
Teddy June
MIAMI
igz1 sports
3* New Jersey +145
Inside Corner
2 units Washington -1 +108
Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jets at Dolphins
Pick: Under 37
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The Jets are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 games as road favorites and they are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. New York is 21-10-2 UNDER their last 33 games after passing for less than 150 yards and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games. Miami is 6-0 UNDER off a straight up win by more than 14 points and they are 7-0-1 UNDER in Week 5. The Dolphins are 12-3 UNDER after scoring more than 30 points in their last game and they are 6-0 UNDER off an ATS win. 10* PLAY ON 'UNDER'