Craig Davis
50 Dime --- JETS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 or -3 1/2. This way we are protecting ourselves in the event the game is decided by a field goal, by getting the win if we get it at -2 1/2 or the push if it's -3.)
I'm urging you to place your wager on this selection as early in the day as you possibly can because I have a feeling it could creep up to -3 or even -3 1/2. When people realize just how lopsided this line is, they'll probably bet it up at least a half point. Let me give you a quick overview of how I see this game, then I'll break it down for you a little more.
Basically, I absolutely love what Rex Ryan has done for this Jets defense. They are starting to remind me a little of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. No proven QB, a solid running game and a defense that has held every offense they've played in check thus far. They'll blitz you from everywhere on the field and have only allowed 3 offensive TDs in four games.... that's impressive. For Miami, despite the fact they ran rough-shod over Buffalo's porous run defense, they still have a QB with less experience than New York's Mark Sanchez and a defense that hasn't figured out how to pass defend yet. It's pretty simple when you think about it, as I'm just not convinced Miami can score by just running the football.
If Chad Pennington were the starting QB I might reconsider this selection or dial it down a little, but I absolutely have no faith in Chad Henne. Do I think he can be a good QB in time? Yeah, sure. But he's not there yet and I'm not about to back a team that can't throw the ball. Henne is completing around 57% of his passes (24 of 41) and has been sacked 7 times because he's one of the least mobile QBs you will come across this year. So you combine a QB who's been sacked that many times in a game-and-a-half with the fact the Jets LOVE to blitz and you could have the recipe for at least a few interceptions from this Jets defense.
New York knows exactly what the Dolphins want to do... they want to run the football with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, control the clock, and win a low-scoring game. If the Jets get up early it's going to force Miami into a situation in which they have to put the game in Henne's hands. That's NOT a good thing for Miami, but it's a great thing for us. I mean, if the Jets can keep Drew Brees and Tom Brady in check, what's to make me think Henne can beat them? It just won't happen.
I also realize you might be looking at NY QB Mark Sanchez and scratching your head as to why I could want to back a rookie QB on the road. Well, because until last week he wasn't playing like a rookie. Sanchez had 4 TDs and 2 INTs through three weeks vs. Houston, New England and Tennessee before faltering somewhat last week in New Orleans. Rex Ryan won't ask Sanchez to win this game for the Jets, he'll simply ask him to manage this game and let his defense do most of the dirty work... the recipe for success for many years in Baltimore.
The Jets also have a little unfinished business to settle with the Miami, as it was the Dolphins who knocked the Jets out of the playoffs by beating them in Week 17, 24-17. Before that, New York had won 5 straight and 8 of 9, including three straight in Miami. And with New England and Buffalo losing Sunday, the Jets can pull a full game ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East with a win tonight... and that's really all we're asking them to do. Defense wins championships, but it also helps set your offense up with good field position... which I expect a bunch of tonight.
The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 on the road as a favorite of 3 points or less and when they struggled moving the football in their previous game (250 yards or less), they've bounced back to cover an amazing 8 of their last 10 times. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are known to struggle when coming into a game off a blowout win, covering just 2 of their last 10 in that spot. It's probably going to be ugly early, but ultimately the Jets will settle down as their defense keeps them in it in the first half. And notice, I didn't even mention Braylon Edwards in this entire analysis because I don't believe he's going to be a factor. The only thing he's going to do is take some of the focus off Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller... which is good for Sanchez (he admits... he loves throwing the ball to Cotchery). Jets win this AFC East battle, 23-10.
Al DeMarco
10 Dime - New York Jets
This game is priced around 2 1/2, although there are a few 3's offshore as I post it very late Sunday night. If you have either 2 1/2, 3, or 3 1/2 in this contest, go ahead and buy the half point down in each circumstance.
One of the biggest surprises of Week 4's action was Miami's surprising rout of Buffalo at home considering the Dolphins entered the game 0-3 and were giving Chad Henne his first start at quarterback. In retrospect, considering how poorly the Bills played in yesterday's home loss to Cleveland, that blowout win by Miami is less impressive.
The Dolphins are a one-dimensional team that thrives on running the ball; they've outrushed their four foes this season 734 yards to 234. But tonight they'll face a New York defense that is yielding just 100 yards per game on the ground despite playing some teams with strong rushing attacks this season (Saints and Titans). In addition, new coach Rex Ryan had tremendous success as Baltimore's defensive coordinator last year stuffing Miami's Wildcat formation.
New York's defense gets an added boost tonight from the return of linebacker Calvin Pace, one of their leading pass rushers, who missed the season's first four games because of a league-imposed suspension. That will help against a Miami offensive line that's allowed 13 sacks in four games with Henne getting dropped six times alone by Buffalo last weekend.
The Miami defense is ranked first in the league at stopping the run, but that is a deceiving stat since the Dolphins faced three weak rushing attacks this season (Indy, San Diego and Buffalo). Plus, opponents have instead fared much better throwing the ball against Miami's D, averaging 238 yards a game, leaving the team ranked in the bottom fourth of the league in that department. That is key considering New York's rookie signal-caller, Mark Sanchez, is coming off his first bad game as a pro, getting picked off three times in last Sunday's loss at New Orleans.
The Jets made a significant move earlier this week in acquiring disgruntled wide receiver Braylon Edwards from the Browns to upgrade their passing attack. That should force defensive backs to play further off the line of scrimmage, preventing them from coming up and stopping the run with so much success. Expect Ryan to "protect" his quarterback somewhat tonight by establishing the ground game early with Thomas Jones getting significant carries.
In terms of statistical trends, this has been a one-sided series with New York on a 9-1-1 ATS tear with six straight covers at Miami. The road team also won and covered both meetings a year ago.
The Dolphins are not only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, they're 14-36-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2003 seasons.
Tim Trushel
20* Miami
Brandon Lang
30 Dime Jets
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Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa
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Keys to selection: The Senators will be facing their biggest test of the season since their opening day road lost to the Rangers. Pittsburgh is coming off a physical game vs. the Leafs, but the Senators have a nice mix of veteran presence and will need that patience this evening in the 3rd period to squeak out a win. Plus, expect a good goalie battle of two net minders from the Q, so look for a low scoring game.
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Database Tip: When ANY NHL Team played as a home team - playing on Monday - After a non division game - Total is 6.0 - Coming off a 2 goal win; the Home Team (OTT) is 11-3-4 SU in this position.
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Prediction: Ottawa 3 Pittsburgh 2
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Note: When OTTAWA played as any home/road team - During Last 3 Years - Won Last Game by 2 Goals or Less ; The UNDER is 51-30-7 for the Sens in this spot.
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Take the UNDER.
Bob BalfeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jets vs. Miami
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The Jets lost last week in New Orleans, but their defense did excellent at stopping the best offense in the league. Marc Sanchez struggled for the first time in his career and its not going to get easier in a divisional game on the road in his first MNF appearance. The problem with the Jets is their injuries at the wide receiver position. New York just picked up Braylon Edwards from Cleveland, but I doubt he will be much of a factor without fully knowing the playbook. Miami does a good job offensively controlling the clock and I expect them to run the ball allot so that Chad Henne does not throw any dumb INT's that the Jets Defense scores on. If there is a defensive touchdown that team will indeed win this game and it will be the difference. The Jets have an excellent front seven and will make it hard for the Dolphins to run the ball and they will make it tough for Henne to set his feet and throw. Miami also has a great defense. I do not see Sanchez beating this team without all of his targets healthy. Look for both teams to run the ball in a chess match waiting for the big turnover created by the defense. Points will be tough to come by tonight. Take the Under.
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Phillies -105 over Rockies
Lee/Jimenez
Mike Lineback FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jets/Dolphins Under
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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Jets vs. Miami
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For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the home side: The Dolphins racked up 250 rushing yards in a 38-10 blowout of Buffalo last Sunday for their first win of the season, giving QB Chad Henne a victory in his first NFL start. Henne was efficient in his debut going 14 of 22 for 115 yards and a TD without an INT; he was complimented by Miami's wildcat formation and Ronnie Brown who rushed for 115 and two TD's. Remember; the Dolphins clinched the division in the final week last season with a 24-17 road win over New York, ending the Jets’ late-season stumble that cost the team a playoff spot. On the other side of the field: New York suffered its first loss of its season at the hands of the Saints its last time out and I'm expecting a letdown this week as the pressure mounts on its young QB. One of Mark Sanchez’s three INT's was returned 99 yards for a TD in the second quarter, and his fumble was recovered by New Orleans in the end zone less than six minutes later to give the Saints a 17-0 lead. I think the addition of Braylon Edwards will be a big distraction as Sanchez tries to work his new receiver into the mix; a dynamic that will certainly take some time to gel. Bottom line: With a new coach and QB in New York, and with Henne at the helm for the Dolphins, long-term ATS stats are essentially a moot point, however there are a couple that do stand out and must be taken into consideration when breaking down tonight's matchup; dating back to last season, Miami may be 1-4 ATS its last five, but its 10-5 SU its last 15 overall. Also; the achilles heel for New York has been its play on the road; the Jets are a poor 6-13 SU their last 19 away from friendly confines. No matter what the organization says, there is pressure on Sanchez (even if its self-inflicted), and I believe those expectations will lead the young QB to over-think, and to make mistakes; look for the DOLPHINS prolific running attack to be too much for New York's physical defense in this one. 9*MIAMI.
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Jets vs. Miami
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In a pick em type game, I am taking the home team here who have now had some time with QB Henne to form some chemistry. Miami has only beat the Jets once since 2006 and are 1-5 the last 6 meetings. Miami has lost to all good teams, Falcons, Chargers and Colts, but hammered Buffalo by 28 in here their last game, and I like their chances running the ball tonight at home. NY off a beat down and young rookie Sanchez will see tons of blitz’s and a tough defense tonight, and he will make some bad decisions. Braylon Edwards was brought in to beef up the WR unit for NY, but he still drops more balls on open routes than anyone in the NFL..I am not impressed. Home team, bitter rival, a Must win for Miami at 1-3. A contrarian play here but home teams on Mondays in evenly matched games are always a take in my book
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Play 1 Unit on Miami
Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jets vs. Miami
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When the Dolphins host their AFC East division rival Jets Monday night they will do so knowing Miami is 8-4 SU and ATS as a Monday night home dog, including 4-0 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a loss and 4-0 SU and ATS versus a .750 or less opponent. With Miami rushing the ball at 5.0 Yards Per Rush and New York allowing 4.2 Yards Per Rush, look for the Dolphins to improve to 9-2 ATS at home in games off a SU and ATS home win here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Miami.
Lenny Del Genio FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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20* AFC East Game of the Month
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Jets vs. Miami
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The Jets have just dominated this rivalry, from an ATS perspective, covering 23 of the last 31 and 14 of the last 17 here in Miami. It is clear that last year’s 11-5 campaign was an aberration as the Dolphins have signed just one free agent over the age of 30 during the Parcells era, meaning they are geared for the future, not the present. Jets HC Rex Ryan faced Miami twice during the past two seasons as DC of Baltimore, so no surprises from the Wild Cat. Miami QB Chad Henne was fortunate to face the Buffalo Bills in his first start last week, but now faces a much tougher secondary this week and does not have the WR to gain separation. Expect Henne to throw multiple interceptions in this game. Miami has covered just four of its previous 18 home games and has lost six straight ATS here to the Jets. Since 1992, the Dolphins are just 4-14 ATS coming off a win by 21 or more points. They are also 9-25 ATS after a game where they won the TO margin by three or better. Jets defense, which allows just 277 YPG, will be the difference here as Miami is 4-13 ATS at home vs. teams that allow 285 YPG or less. NY Jets are our 20* AFC East Game of the Month.
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Phillies -105 over Rockies
Lee/Jimenez
Frank Patron
20000 Unit Monday Night Lock
NY Jets -2.5
BEN BURNS
Main Event - Miami
Big Chalk Blowout - Washington
The Booooj
10 Units Miami