Ben Burns
Jacksonville Jaguars
Double Dragon
Jacksonville +3
THE BOSS
100%* Jacksonville Over
SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
Tennessee -3 JACKSONVILLE 45.5
Tennessee came up with a big road win at Dallas last week. They were out rushed 6.1ypr to 5.9ypr, out passed 7.1yps to 5.8yps and out gained overall, 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl, partly because Dallas threw the ball 24 more times. But, Tennessee used a +3 in turnover margin and a long kick off return to overcome being beaten on the line of scrimmage. Jacksonville went to Buffalo and, although falling behind early in the game, were able to over come that deficit to win 36-26. Jacksonville out rushed Buffalo, 5.4ypr to 5.2ypr, out passed them 7.5yps to 5.9yps and out gained them overall 6.1yppl to 5.7yppl. Jacksonville managed to win this game despite a -3 in turnover margin.
Tennessee averages 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.5yps against 6.7yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. Jacksonville averages 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.8yps against 6.9yps and 6.5yppl against 5.8yppl.
Jacksonville qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 31-9-2 (2-0 this year). Numbers, however, favor Tennessee by 9.5 points and predict about 46 points. Tennessee hasn’t fared real well here, having won three of the past six but only one of those three wins were by more than three points. Tennessee’s offense is better and their defense is significantly better than Jacksonville. TENNESSEE 27 JACKSONVILLE 20
Bobby Maxwell
300-Unit NFL Monday Money Maker - Tennessee Titans
These are two of the strangest teams in the NFL. Jacksonville looks absolutely horrible early in the season but has totaled 67 points in its last two wins. On the other side in Tennessee who is fourth in the NFL at 26.4 points per game but had their QB benched earlier in the season for poor play. I like the balance the Titans have on offense and I’m looking for them to win this one by 10 points tonight in this AFC South Division contest.
Tennessee had 321 total yards in a 34-27 win in Dallas last weekend and got 131 yards rushing and two TDs from All-Pro RB Chris Johnson. QB Vince Young has thrown for 464 yards, four TDs and no INTs in his last three games. He’s had trouble with INTs against Jacksonville, but he’s 4-2 in his career against the Jags.
Last year, Johnson shredded the Jags for 228 yards and two TDs in a 30-13 victory and now he faces this Jacksonville team that is 30th in the league, giving up 385 total yards per game.
Jacksonville is really a Jekyll and Hyde team on offense, either looking real good or real bad. And that all stems from QB David Garrard who has 341 yards and five TDs in his last two games. But early in the season he was terrible during blowout losses to the Chargers and Eagles. The Titans are going to focus on pressuring Garrard and make him look bad tonight.
The Jags are on several ATS slides, including 5-14 at home, 4-11 after a spread-cover, 1-5 against winning teams, 5-12 overall and 2-6 on Mondays.
Tennessee has looked outstanding in its two road games this season, going into New York and beating up the Giants and knocking off the Cowboys in Dallas. I’m playing them to do the same to the Jags tonight and get this win by at least 10 points. Play The Titans.
Anthony Redd
20 Dime Tennessee Titans
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Tennessee/ Jax Under 45
2 Units Texas Rangers -112
1 Unit Tennessee -3
Power Play Wins
Texas Rangers
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Texas (-120) over New York Yankees
Cliff Lee has won 7 consecutive playoff games and he has also won 8 of the last 10 games when pitching with five or six days of rest. Cliff Lee has won 5 of the last 6 road games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he is 2-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.78.
NHL Hockey Monday
25* Play Toronto (-180) over NY Islanders
Teddy Covers
Titans
Rangers
Maddux Sports
Tennessee -3
Matt Fargo
Rangers at Yankees
Pick: Under 7.5
Both of these teams are known for offense and we have definitely seen it through the first two games of this series as 20 total runs have been scored with the ‘Over’ being 1-0-1 so far. It easily could be 2-0 as the Yankees and Rangers went the final three innings with no scoring. The public loves the high-scoring games and heading back to New York, the ‘Over’ will be another big public play. However, it is about pitching tonight and we should see a reversal from the first two games in Texas. I used the ‘Under’ in both of Cliff Lee’s games against the Rays and both stayed below the numbers by identical 5-1 scores. Those totals were set at 7 and then 6.5 so we are definitely getting value here with this number. Lee has been simply outstanding as he improved to 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA and three complete games in seven career postseason starts. He has allowed a run or less in five of his last six starts and his strikeout-to-walk rate is the best in history of any pitcher in the postseason. Andy Pettitte has had a very uneven season but he is a gamer and when it comes to the postseason, there are not many pitchers you would rather have on the hill than Pettitte. Because of his late-season injury issues and the fact that he hadn't pitched more than four innings in any of his past three starts, Pettitte was probably the Yankees' biggest question mark entering the postseason. Instead he went seven innings while allowing just two runs against the Twins. He had a quality outing in his line start against Texas this season. Lee is 14-4 to the ‘Under’ in his last 18 starts in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record while Pettitte is 22-9 to the ‘Under’ in his last 31 starts against teams outscoring opponents by a half-run per game or more so both pitchers has shown to step up against the better competition. The Yankees are 8-0 to the ‘Under’ in their last eight home October playoff games while the Rangers are 5-0 to the ‘Under’ in their last five road playoff games. 9* Under Texas Rangers/New York Yankees
Rich Green
3* Titans-Jags Under 45
3* Rangers-Yankees Over 7
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Jacksonville Jaguars
Nite Owl Sports
3 Units Tennesse Titans -140
This game is pretty difficult to handicap, because both teams are 3-2 but have been erratic TY, with Tenn having played 3 very good games (incl both of their roadies, with upset wins at Dallas and NY) and two bad games, their home losses to Pitt and Denver, and Jags having played one great game (their home upset win over Indy), two decent games (home win over Denver and road win at Buffalo) and two real stinkers, a blowout loss at SD and a 3-28 loss at home to Philly. And Tenn has started off with two distinct patterns, one good and one bad – the good is their 2-0 road record, and the bad is their alternating pattern of wins and losses, with a loss due this game under that pattern. And these two have split the last four against each other in Jax, and split their two games LY, each victorious at home. Jags are 10-6 as home dogs L6Y under long time HC Jack Del Rio, but just 4-5 ATS L3+Y, incl 1-1 TY, and are just 8-10 ATS L3Y in division games, but were a decent 4-2 ATS LY in such games. Tenn is 7-5 ATS L3Y as a road fave but just 0-2 ATS LY, and 11-7 ATS L3Y in division games, but just 2-4 ATS LY in such games. And both teams are pretty similar on offense, with strong running games featuring a mobile QB and a strong primary running back (Chris Johnson for Tenn and Maurice Jones-Drew for Jags), and a decent but by no means overwhelming passing attack. And both teams have so so numbers on defense, both against the pass and the run. So where is the edge? Based on that analysis, there is none. So on the one hand, not being satisfied with that result, but on the other not wanting to force a play for our subscribers just because this is a MNF game that millions of fans will be watching, we dug deeper, and we found two significant advantages for Tenn.
The first difference between these two that really stands out is Tenn’s 22 defensive sacks TY, highest in the NFL, compared to Jags’ 11, which is below average. And both teams are about the same protecting the QB, with Jags QBs having been sacked 11 times compared to Tenn’s 12. And looking at Garrard’s best game (against Indy) and worst games TY (against Philly and SD), it’s pretty obvious that if given adequate time to find his receivers, Garrard can usually hit them, as he did against Indy (hitting 17-22 for 163 YP with 2 TDPs and no INTs), which was no coincidence since he was sacked only once by Indy’s weak pass rush (just 8 sacks TY thru their first five games). But against Philly, Jags scored a pathetic 3 points, had only184 yards total offense, and Garrard passed for just 105 yards, which became only 54 net YP when the -51 yards resulting from 6 sacks were offset. And in the Jags’ blowout loss in SD, where Garrard threw 4 picks before being replaced in the 2H, he was sacked only twice by the hard charging SD pass rush but suffered many more “knock downs” and “hurries.” So with Philly having only 12 sacks TY (half of them against Jags) and Tenn 22 sacks by the defense, it stands to reason that Titans should be able to mount a pretty good pass rush against Garrard and not only collect some sacks but also force him into some errant throws. And they know they’d better do that, because in LY’s game at Jax, Garrard was sacked only twice by a Titan defense not as good or as quick as TY’s, and he torched the Tenn secondary for 323 YP and 3 TDPs, with no INTs, as Jags won easily, 37-17.
The second major difference between these two, also favoring Titans, is that while Tenn has been quite good recently “under the lights,” with a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS record in the five nationally televised night games in which they have played L3Y, despite four of the five having been on the road, Jags have been a lousy 0-5 SU and ATS in such games, despite four of them having been at home, and 3 of them were division games.
So based upon the above analysis, we’ll go with the Titans, but with them having bounced back and forth all WE between -2.5 and -3, but now at -3 on the Top Ten picks menu, we’ll take them at -140 on the ML instead of laying the 3 points ATS (where all we get is a "push" if Titans win by a FG), as we believe the ML gives us much better value on Tenn, and then see where the line goes on Monday, with an ATS play on Tenn likely if the line drops back to 2.5 or less. But for now, it’s 3 units on Tenn at -140 on the ML.