Wunderdog
5 Units Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Chuck O'Brien
25 Dime Jacksonville Jags
Ben Burns
Jacksonville Jags
Titans/Jags Under 44
Texas/New York Under 7.5
New York Rangers
Brandon Lang
20 Dime Jacksonville Jags +3
RED DOG SPORTS
New Orleans at Memphis
Pick: Memphis -6.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are 6-0 in the preseason and looking to go undefeated to set a winning precedent. OJ Mayo was quoted as saying "the team is playing hard, playing together and playing to win."
This is the Hornets third game in 4 nights and the season starts next week. They just lost 94-84 at home and shouldn't care too much about this road game. David West is out for New Orleans. Chris Paul only played in the first quarter on Saturday. They are 0-2 on the road and just 1-4 overall.
Memphis beat Hornets by 8 earlier in New Orleans. These two are in the same division and Memphis should be motivated to keep their winning ways going. They are led by Mayo (who scored just 2 points in the last game), Randolph, Marc Gasol, Conley, Gay, Law, Thabeet, Arthur and Xavier Henry.
KELSO
10 Units Jacksonville Jags +3
10 Units Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 44.5
5 Unit Parlay Jacksonville & Under 44.5
10 Units Texas Rangers -110
Don Wallace Sports
5* Jacksonville +3
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Texas Rangers/NY Yankees Under 7.5
2 Units Jacksonville Jags +3
Seabass
100* Jacksonville Jags +3
100* NY Rangers
50* Yankees/Rangers Under 7.5
The Duke's Sports
Jacksonville (+3) for 1.5 Units
The Jaguars' defense is a concern for us; after all, it has allowed 26 or more ppg over its last 4 games. Tonight, however, we'll look for a better showing from that unit considering this is a division game and Del Rio takes pride in defense; moreover, they're overdue for a solid defensive effort considering that's where their off-season focus was on. On the other hand, Jacksonville's offense has stepped up its game over the past few weeks. TE Mercedes Lewis has emerged as a big-time threat and the running game remains solid behind Maurice Jones-Drew and backup - Karim. At a trend standpoint, Jacksonville is a dangerous small home dog at 10-3 ATS and that comes into play in this series where the dog has covered 5 of the last 7 and the home team covered 7 of the last 10. The Jags do well in week 6 at 4-1 ATS. Tennessee has stumbled in road games vs teams with winning home records at 2-6 ATS. TN has alternated wins and losses and they're coming off that big win last week at Dallas. We'll look for the Jags to keep their winning momentum here.
Cal Sports
4* Rangers/Yankees Over 7.5
Ben Burns
Jacksonville Jags
Titans/Jags Under 44
Texas/New York Under 7.5
New York Rangers
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. The perception is that the Titans are the stronger team in this matchup. As a result, the Titans are the favorites, despite playing on the road. However, both teams have identical 3-2 records and with the game being played at Jacksonville, I expect the Jaguars to be the team which has the advantage. True, the Titans have impressive home wins vs. the likes of Dallas and the the NY Giants. That said, the Jaguars are off back to back victories and they beat the Colts in their last game here. With back to back difficult road games on deck, the Jags know that this is an extremely important game. Speaking of back to back road games, that's the situation that the Titans find themselves in. The Titans haven't played back to back road games in more than a year now. The last time that they did so was on 10/04/09. Their opponent that day was these very same Jaguars. As is this case again here, Tennessee was a slight road favorite for that game. Yet, the Jags delivered a convincing 37-17 victory. While they've had success on the road so far this season, the Titans are still just 8-12-1 ATS (9-12 SU) the last 21 times that they were road favorites of -3 points or less. During the same stretch, including last year's win over the Titans here, the Jags have gone a profitable 14-9-1 ATS (12-12 SU) when listed as home underdogs of +3 points or less. With the O/U line having climbed all the way above the 45 mark, its also worth noting that the Jags are a perfect 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) the last eight times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. I'll grab the points but expect the Jags to improve on those stats by scoring the minor upset.
I'm playing on Jacksonville and Tennessee to finish UNDER the total. These teams are both off back to back high-scoring 'overs.' Those results, combined with the fact that this is a "prime time" game, have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I believe that its too high. As you're aware, frequent running plays typically keep the clock moving. Naturally, that's what 'under' bettors want to see. I expect to see a heavy dose of the run here. The Jags ran the ball 40 times last game, throwing only 20 times. In their previous game, they ran the ball 35 times while throwing 22 times. As both of those games have resulted in victories, there should be no reason to deviate from that formula. The Titans have long been a team that likes to run the ball. They're averaging 34 rushing attempts in their two road games. In their last game against the Jags, the Ran the ball a whopping 49 times. That game stayed below the total, a 30-13 home victory for the Titans last November. Including that result, the UNDER is 3-1 the last four series meetings. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 12-7-1 the last 20 meetings between these teams. Taking a closer look at those last 20 meetings reveals that 19 of them had O/U lines of 44 or less. With tonight's O/U line sitting above that important 44 mark, that again goes back to my point about line value. Interestingly, the only one of those 20 games which had an O/U line of greater than 44 occurred way back in November of 2003. That game had an O/U line of 45.5 but the teams combined for only 13 points. Looking at some O/U stats and we find that the Titans have seen the UNDER go 13-8-1 the last 22 times that they were listed as road favorites of -3 points or less, including 6-1 their last seven in that role. Meanwhile, the Jags have seen the UNDER go 15-9 the last 24 times that they were listed as home favorites of +3 or fewer, including 4-2 their last six in that role. Overall, the Titans have seen the UNDER go 13-5 the last 18 times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During the same stretch, the Jags have seen the UNDER go 12-6 when they've played a game with a line in that range. Look for those stats to improve here, as the final combined score proves lower than many will be expecting.
I'm playing on Texas and NY to finish UNDER the total. We've already seen some great pitching matchups in these playoffs and tonight figures to be another. Cliff Lee goes for the Rangers and he's been simply outstanding of late. Over his last three starts, he's got a 0.78 ERA and 0.652 WHIP. Not surprisingly, all three of those games stayed below the total. They had scores of 5-1, 5-1 and 3-2. A closer look reveals that Lee had a remarkable 29 K's with ZERO walks in those games, giving a better idea of just how dominant he's been. Lee is now 6-0 mark with a 1.44 ERA and three complete games in seven postseason starts, over the past two seasons. Pettitte's recent numbers aren't quite as staggering. However, he's been superb in the postseason for years. He was very solid vs. the Twins (5 hits, 2 runs in 7 innings) and is now 5-0 with a 2.88 ERA in his last nine playoff starts. In his last start vs. the Rangers, Pettitte allowed just two runs on four hits, through eight complete innings. That game stayed below the total with a score of 5-2. In his last start vs. the Yankees, Lee allowed only two hits and one run, through eight complete innings. He earned the victory, in a 4-1 Texas win. In his last five starts here in New York, Lee is 5-0 with an awesome 1.67 ERA and two complete games. That includes a six-hitter in the World Series opener for the Phillies last year. The Rangers have seen the UNDER go a profitable 93-63-7 against southpaw starters, the past few seasons. They've also seen the UNDER go a lucrative 14-4 the last 18 times that they played a road game where the line ranged from +100 to -125. With both starters "doing their thing," I expect those stats to improve here.
I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Rangers are only very modest favorites here, essentially a "pick'em" game. Given that this game is being played at MSG, I feel that provides us with excellent line value. The Avs have gotten off to a solid start. Through five games, they've gone 3-2. That said, this is a tough spot for them. For starters, they're quite far from home and playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip. While they did have yesterday off, this will be their third game in the past four nights. Having earned victories at New Jersey and Detroit, the Avs have already had a reasonably successful trip - so, its not "urgent" for them to win here. Additionally, they've got a home game vs. the Sharks on deck. That's a very big game for them, as the Sharks were the team which knocked them out of the playoffs last season. In other words, it should be easy for them to get caught "looking ahead" to the return trip home. Having already lost their home opener and with a couple of road games on deck, the Rangers could badly use a victory on home ice tonight. These teams have met twice the last two seasons. Last year, at Colorado, the Rangers earned a 3-1 victory. The previous season, in February of 2009, they played here at New York. The Rangers were laying -160 for that one and won by a score of 6-1. Again, I feel that tonight's much lower line is very fair.
RED ZONE SPORTS
2* Tennessee/Jacksonville Under 45
Lenny Del Genio
Tenn / Jax Over
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Jacksonville
Billionaire - Texas