SIXTH SENSE
3% DENVER +3.5
SAN DIEGO -3.5 Denver 44
I don’t understand the love for the Chargers from the linemaker in this game. SD does come off their bye this week, while Denver travels after two huge home wins over Dallas and New England. The Broncos were very sharp in their win last week, out rushing NE 4.1ypr to 3.6ypr, out passing them 6.4yps to 6.1yps and 5.7yppl to 5.0yppl. The Broncos continue to get no love. They average 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has been amazing, especially when you consider just how bad they were last year, allowing just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.9yps against 5.6yps and 4.2yppl against 5.0yppl. SD, meanwhile, has averaged just 2.7ypr against 3.7ypr but 7.4yps against 6.7yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense has been terrible, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.6yps against 5.9yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Denver qualifies in three solid fundamental rushing situations, which are 543-414-30, 148-76-7 and 452-295-21. SD qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 148-51-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Denver by 9.5 points and predict about 41 points. SD has had Denver’s number here the past three years but prior to that they went four straight years of losing or winning by three or less points and six of seven years losing or winning by three or less points. This is a different Denver team now, one that is lead by Josh McDaniels, who was at NE prior. SD struggled mightily over the years trying to defeat NE and McDaniels may just bring more trouble for SD. The offenses are pretty close to even while the defenses are light years apart. Live dog, with the better defense, tremendous value and solid situations in their favor. DENVER 26 SAN DIEGO 16
Pointwise Phone Service
2* Denver
DB Sports Consultants
5* Denver ML +160
Denver has finally proved they are one of the elite teams in the NFL after beating New England in OT last week. This team is for real thanks to a rookie head coach in Josh McDaniels and the steady play of Kyle Orton. We look for Denver to go 6-0 and 3.5 games up in the AFC West going into their bye week. San Diego has yet to prove they have a defense giving up more points than they have scored YTD. The bye week does the Chargers no good as the Broncos can smell blood in the AFC West. 17-6 Broncos.
The Boys
NFL Underdog Game of the Week
Denver Broncos +3½ -120
Inside Corner
3 Units Denver/SD Under 44
BIG AL
San Diego
Don Wallace Sports
Denver +3.5 over San Diego
The Boss
200% "Dog Pound" Denver
Payne Sports
9 Units San Diego -3
DENVER FTW$
WAYNE ROOT
Football Upset Club
4* Chargers (-3½) over Broncos
Tim Trushel
20* San Diego Chargers
LA Angels
igz1 sports
3* Broncos/Chargers Under 43.5
Tom Freese
Yankees at Angels
Pick: Angels -125
Forgive Andy Pettitte here if he isn't very sharp as he hasn't pitched in 8 days. The Yankees are 1-6 their last 7 road playoff games and they are 8-20 their last 28 games in Anaheim. The Angles are 36-15 their last 51 games vs. lefty starters and they 10-4 with one day of rest. Los Angeles is 37-18 after losing the first two games of a series and they are 36-16 their 52 home starts made by Jered Weaver. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON LOS ANGELES - (Weaver vs. Pettitte)
BRANDON LANG
30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
10 DIME - LA ANGELS
10 DIME - LA DODGERS
30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Don't get beat by the hook ever.) - The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers.
Their offensive line needed a week off, and coming out of their bye week and playing at home on Monday night against a team they will be supremely confident against is a perfect situation for a big win.
I give Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan all the credit in the world for this turn around but let's not put the cart before the horse here just yet.
Denver's 5 wins have come at Cincinnati in week one courtesy of the tip ball miracle, week two at home over Cleveland, week 3 at Oakland and the last 2 weeks at home over Dallas and New England.
Yes, they are 5-0 SU and ATS on the year, but I question just how good this team really is based on their level of competition and where they have played them.
Beating the Bengals and the Raiders on the road is not enough for me to anoint you the second coming just yet. I will make the Broncos prove it to me with a win over their current nemesis.
San Diego has beaten Denver 3 in a row at home and beaten them big to the tune of 48-20 in 2006, 23-3 in 2007, and 52-21 in 2008.
Yes, I understand it's a new regime with McDaniels and Nolan, but I'm just not sold on the fact Denver can turn this horrific defense from last year around so quickly and tonight will be Denver's biggest test yet.
I feel they will fail and fail miserably against this Charger bunch who need a big win, are fresh off their bye week and will attack this Denver defense all night long.
San Diego has 2 losses this year at home to the Ravens, and at Pittsburgh against the Steelers and even though they lost, they put up 26 and 28 points while doing so.
At the end of the day this game tonight is going to come down to who makes more plays, Kyle Orton or Philip Rivers and for my dollar, it's Philip Rivers.
San Diego is the play tonight.
10 DIME - LA ANGELS - Must win. Simple as that.
And I look for the Angels to play today as if their lifes depend on it.
Jered Weaver was as dominant as any pitcher was at home this year, and his 10-2 home mark and 1-0 in this years playoffs is good enough for me.
Andy Pettitte isn't facing the Twins here folks, he is facing an Angels team that can light him up in a hurry and I believe they will.
In his last 2 appearances in Los Angeles he has given up 9 earned in losing both and I feel the Angels will get to him early tonight.
The Yankees have lost 3 of his last 5 starts overall, so it's not like they have been performing really well behind him and let's remember this isn't a place the Yankees have played particular well either.
At the end of the day I am more impressed with Weaver's 7 1/3 innings at home against the Red Sox in the ALDS allowing 2 hits and 1 run than I am anything Pettitte did against the Twins.
Angels get on the board in this series today.
LA ANGELS (Weaver over Pettitte)
10 DIMER - LA DODGERS - Just as Kuroda of the Dodgers was the sacrificial lamb last night for Los Angeles in their pitching rotation, such is the case with Joe Blanton tonight.
Blanton's last 2 starts of the regular season - starts he knew would determine whether or not he got a post season start - saw him implod against both the Marlins and the Brewers, lasting less than 6 innings in both being tagged for 5 runs in each.
As for Randy Wolf, he has been a savior for the Dodgers down the stretch allowing more than 2 runs in just 2 of his last 10 starts.
Now he is back at Citizen Bank Park, a place he will be very comfortable having spent 9 seasons with the Phillies.
He started the first game ever played in the stadium with the Phillies on April 12, 2004.
Overall he is 9-7 with a 4.30 ERA in 27 starts including 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 17 strikeouts in his only two starts there as a visitor.
Much like the Angels who are in a must win, so are the Dodgers here and with Wolf on the mound, I like my chances with the small dog Dodgers.
Los Angeles is the play.
LA DODGERS (Wolf over Blanton)
FREE SELECTION - DENVER-SAN DIEGO OVER