ATS Bases Lock Club
4 units Philly/LA OVER
Football Financial
3 units SD/Den Over
Northcoast
Marquee - San Diego -3
John Ryan
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Philadelphia as they face the Dodgers for game 4 of the NLCS. No doubt Phillies have the upper hand in this series and have to love the position they find themselves in for this game and the series. Skipper Manual summed it up best after their horrific 2-1 loss in LA – “this team will bounce back just like they have all season”. That bounce was a 11-0 winner in game 3 and the Dodger bats save Manny are all but dead. When you are on a team that is down 2 games to 1 and know that they 2 pitchers that just dominated you will face you again if you are to have any chance at all makes it nearly impossible for that team to not admit defeat already. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 61-26 making 39.5 units since 2004. Play on any team when leading in a playoff series. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 67-26 making 39.2 units since 1997. Play on home teams that are strong offensive teams scoring >=5.0 runs/game facing a good NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA<=3.70 and after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games. Reinforcing the “defeated notion” mentioned above is this system that has produced a record of 53-17 making 32.4 units since 2004. Play against any team in a playoff game after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. One of the keys will be pitching to Manny with the bases empty as he has had success against Blanton batting 14 for 25 for a 560 average, but has struck out 4 times. Take the Phillies.
Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER the posted total Phillies/Dodgers. AiS shows an 80% probability that 9 or more runs will be scored in this game. Like yesterday’s projections the Phillies have a 55% probability of scoring 8 runs on their own merit. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 150-84 since 2004. Play over with road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game facing an opponent with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. The Dodgers bullpen has been great this year, but they have pitched the 2nd most innings this season in MLB. This will show up today in a big way and I fully expect Phillies to have control of the game before the bullpen is even called upon. Take the OVER.
MustWinSports
5 DIME SAN DIEGO
Tom Freese
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Under
Denver is 10-1 UNDER off a straight up win and they are 5-0-1 UNDER their last 6 October games. The Broncos are 8-0 UNDER off an ATS win and they are 4-0 UNDER vs. AFC teams. San Diego is 9-2 UNDER in Week 6 and they are 4-0-1 UNDER off a bye week. The Chargers are 4-0-1 UNDER off a loss and they are 6-2 UNDER at home vs. a team with a winning road record. 10* PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Ron Raymond
San Jose vs. Rangers
When NY RANGERS team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During the month of October - Allowed 1 or less goals AGAINST in their last game; the UNDER is 17-4-0 for the Rangers in this role. Take the UNDER.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Denver vs. San Diego
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the Broncos as they continue to relish their role of underdog despite having a perfect record: The Broncos beat New England 20-17 in overtime last Sunday to improve to 5-0 for the first time since opening with 13 straight wins in 1998, their last Super Bowl season. The biggest surprise though has been the play of newly acquired, and much-maligned QB, Kyle Orton; Orton was named the AFC offensive player of the week for his performance last week as he completed 35 of 48 passes for 330 yards and two TD's and marched his team 98 yards for the tying score in the final moments of regulation. The biggest weapon the Broncos possess at the moment is their defense; Denver has given up 43 total points, nine fewer then they allowed in the 2008 season finale against the Chargers, and rank second in total defense (268.8 yards per game). They’ve also given up only seven points in the second half; none since a season-opening 12-7 victory over Cincinnati. With a new head coach and a new QB in place, past ATS trends/stats are essentially a moot point, however, its interesting to note that Denver does know how to win (or at least cover) on the road as its 5-2 ATS its last seven away from friendly confines.
On the other side of the field: San Diego limped into last week’s bye following a discouraging 38-28 loss at Pittsburgh on Oct. 4. The Chargers fell behind 28-0 and surrendered 497 total yards to the defending Super Bowl champions. Most surprising for the Chargers has been their anemic running game; San Diego ranks last in the league in rushing offense with 53.8 yards per game! The Chargers are only 1-4 ATS their last five overall, and 1-3 ATS against conference opponents.
Bottom line: I know they were playing the Titans, but no one was expecting Tom Brady and the Patriots to shut out Tennessee and put 59 on the board; without question in my mind that is a testament of how powerful Denvers shut-down defense is right now. Without a running game, Rivers is going to have a miserable night trying to throw on Denvers secondary. I had the Broncos in their game vs. the Patriots, and I believe they'll pull through again as underdogs; look for the Chargers to fall to 1-3 ATS this year as a favoriteas the undervalued BRONCOS move to a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season! 9* BRONCOS.
Tony George
Denver vs. San Diego
In a game where the lead in the AFC West is in the balance as far as SD catching up, I cannot go against a team who is 5-0 ATS this season and whose defense is head and shoulders above the Chargers who are letting people light them up. Denver shut down the Pats last week, and the Pats scored 59 points on Sunday in a snowstorm against Tennessee…! The Chargers have no running game and rely on the pass, and Denver knows it and will blitz QB Rivers all night and throwing into the Bronco’s secondary with Champ Bailey running around is going to be a problem. Denver is for real and has the playmakers. Chargers 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 against Denver, the roles reverse here.
Play 1 Unit on Denver
Marc Lawrence
Denver vs. San Diego
When the Broncos battle the Chargers Monday night they will take the field with the better offense and the better defense. It all starts with the defense, where Denver’s stop-troops are 113 YPG superior to San Diego. And it doesn’t stop there. A superior offense, keyed by a ground game that is 3.2 net YPR better than its favored opponent. San Diego’s woes can be attributed to a running game that is scary bad. The Chargers have been outrushed in every game this season, including a 177-16 pounding at Pittsburgh in their last game. They were were also outrushed, 165-15, in an 11-point playoff loss at Pittsburgh to conclude the 2008 season. Because of multiple injuries on both lines, the Chargers are -12 in net sacks versus the Broncos. Adding fuel to the fire is Norv Turner’s dismal 2-9-1 SU and 3-9 ATS career mark at home against greater than .600 division opponents, including 0-6 SU and ATS when the foe is off an ATS win of more than four points. Grab the points with the better team. We recommend a 3-unit play on Denver.
Rob Homyak
Denver vs. San Diego
Denver 6-0 ATS as dogs against rested AFC opponents. The Broncos cashed in all 5 games this year, both road games and all 4 against the AFC. Denver is on ATS runs of 5-2 on the road and 6-2 as an underdog. The Chargers ATS 1-4 overall (all against the AFC), 1-4 in October and 3-7 as a favorite.
5 Units on Denver
Lenny Del Genio
Denver vs. San Diego
Look for a breakout game from the Chargers offense. RB Darren Sproles is able to keep defenses on their heels and turn them inside out and the week of rest should help rejuvenate LaDanian Tomlinson. Unlike the previous QB’s Denver has faced such as Palmer, Quinn, Russell, Romo and Brady, Phillip Rivers can actually make plays outside of the pocket. The Broncos have covered every game. That has to come to an end sooner or later. And it’s most likely to happen here as they are 0-6 ATS following a win by three points or less. San Diego has dominated this AFC West rivalry, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS the previous three years, with every win coming by 20 points or more. The only game they lost was the famed Ed Hochuli game in Week 2 last year. Road teams with a winning record, off BB SU dog wins, are just 18-45 ATS since 1983 in the NFL. Denver is just 2-7 ATS in pre-bye week games and 3-15 ATS L18 division games. San Diego is our 20* AFC West Game of the Month.
Street Rosenthal
*200 Philadelphia Phillies -117
*200 Denver Broncos +3.5
*200 Los Angeles Angels -125
Lenny Stevens
10* San Diego
Ben Burns
Main Event
I'm playing on San Diego and Denver to finish UNDER the total. These teams were involved in a pair of "shootouts" against each other last season. Those games both produced a ton of points and those results remain in many people's memories. However, this is an entirely different Denver team. The Broncos aren't scoring as many points - they've only gone over 23 once in five games and they have yet to score more than 27. However, they're also allowing less than they did last year. A lot less. In fact, they're allowing a mere 8.6 points per game (best in the NFL) and only five points per game (and just 222 total yards) in their two road games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in their five games. Yes, the Chargers are explosive on offense. However, that's been the case for awhile now and yet the UNDER remains a very healthy 12-7-1 their last 20 home games. That includes a perfect 4-0 record when playing a home game with an over/under line ranging from 42.5 to 45. Their most recent game here finished with a final score of 23-13. It should also be noted that the UNDER is 12-7 the last 19 times that the Chargers were coming off a bye, including 2-0 the last couple of seasons. All things considered, I feel that tonight's total is generous. 9* Main Event
10* SD Chargers
Scott Rickenbach
10* Dodgers/Phillies Over