Pointwise Phones
2 * Indianapolis
SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
TAMPA BAY –10.5 Indianapolis 40.5
Numbers favor TB by 9.5 points and predict about 40 points. TB, off their two consecutive wins, qualifies in a very strong negative situation, which is 115-40-3. The Colts also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 147-87-5. The situation playing against TB is very strong and there is enough value to play Indy but I just can’t play a team like the Colts with such a bad offense, on the road. If they get down, it may be tough for them to come back. With that said, they are getting a ton of points and there is no way I want any part of TB. TAMPA BAY 23 INDIANAPOLIS 17
Jim Feist
10* Tampa Bay Bucs
The Colts (0-3 SU/1-2 ATS) have even more problems than just QB Peyton Manning's neck. Veteran QB Kerry Collins (2 TDs, 1 INTs) hasn't been the answer and got a concussion Sunday, nor has Curtis Painter, who was forced in Sunday night in a 23-20 home loss to Pittsburgh. Curtis Painter will make his first NFL start at quarterback for the Colts at Tampa Bay on Monday night. Kerry Collins is still recovering after suffering concussion-like symptoms last Sunday against Pittsburgh, and his status is uncertain for Monday's game. The Colts scrapped and played hard, but in the end they were outgained 408-241 and allowed 341 yards passing. The final Colts QB numbers: 18-for-40 for 153 yards. And that's in a league when everybody is throwing for 300-plus. This offensive line is bad and hurting: RG Ryan Diem and DT Fili Moala both have ankle injuries. The defense looks thin. Defending NFL rushing champion Arian Foster didn't play because of a hamstring injury, but Houston rushed for 167 yards on two touchdowns and Cleveland ran for 106 yards. Beyond the starters, Colts defensive backs are mostly unproven. Tampa Bay (2-1 SU/ATS) has a young QB in Josh Freeman (2 TDs, 4 INTs) and invested heavily in what they hope will be a strong offensive line. That line was awful in a 27-20 home loss to Detroit, with just 56 yards rushing, but got 105 yards rushing (5.5 ypc) in an impressive 24-20 comeback win at Minnesota, down 17-0 at the half. Still, Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman has been sacked only once in 79 attempts this season. They come off a 16-13 home win over Atlanta, so this offense is conservative, like last season. Freeman completed 22 of 32 passes but for just 180 yards with 2 picks, so it's a short passing/running offense. Tampa Bay posted only 26 sacks last season, prompting the Bucs to choose Clayborn and Bowers with their first two draft picks. I don't see the Colts getting many points here against a decent Bucs defense. The Bucs are conservative on offense, but should have plenty to cover this line on Monday Night against a hurting Colts club.
BIG AL
5* A.L. PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the New York Yankees. The starters in this game are the same as game one, which was suspended on Friday night after the rains came in the Bronx with the score tied at 1-1. The game was re-played on Saturday and the Yankees romped, so tonight it will be Sabathia and Verlander again with hopefully no weather-related interruptions. The dynamics of this series have changed dramatically as instead of facing likely Cy Young winner Verlander twice, the Yanks now will only have to see him on the mound this one time, so one would think the Yankees would have an advantage. But that edge dissipated when Detroit won Game 2 in the Bronx, so now the Tigers have a great opportunity to take a 2-1 lead in a series where it only takes three games to clinch. It's great to have Verlander starting the first playoff game at home from an emotional perspective but the truth is that it really doesn't matter where Verlander starts because he's just as good on the road as he is at Comerica Park. But one thing that IS different in Detroit is the Tigers' offense, which bats about 22 points higher, and scores about 0.6 runs more per game at home than on the road. And that's a key reason why Detroit is an awesome 37-11 at home when Verlander has taken the mound over the last couple years! Even worse for the Yankees is that Sabathia has had no success in the Motor City in his last 4 starts, going 0-4 with a 7.56 ERA. He's also been significantly worse this season at night than in the daytime, as he's surrendered 24% more baserunners and 40% more runs at night. And he's been struggling on the road since August, as he's given up 17 runs, 47 hits and 12 walks in 31 2-3 innings (4.83 ERA; 1.86 WHIP) in his last five road starts. Verlander, on the other hand, has been as dominant as any pitcher in the past 20 years. He led the majors with 24 wins and 250 strikeouts, and he also led the A.L. with a 2.40 ERA. The Detroit fans will definitely be pumped to see their ace take the mound tonight and they can be extra confident knowing that the Tigers have won 11 of their last 13 games at home, while New York's dropped four straight, and nine of 12 on the road. Take the Tigers.
94% (PLAYOFF BLOWOUT WINNER!
At 5:00 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Texas Rangers. It's safe to say that the end of the 2011 regular season was the most exciting in the history of the Rays, as Evan Longoria hit a walk-off home run at home last Wednesday night while the Orioles beat the Red Sox 1000 miles to the north, enabling Tampa to advance into the post-season as the A.L. Wild Card. But perhaps lost in all the craziness last week was the fact that lefthanded ace David Price started that game against the Yankees and quite frankly he wasn't very effective as he was knocked out of the game after just four innings, having allowed six runs (five earned) on six hits in the process. But in the end, all Price and the Rays cared about was that they won the game, and this evening, Price is in a much better position to help his team as the Rays won one of the two games in Texas and now have a chance to clinch this series at home with Price and then Jeremy Hellickson going to the mound in the next two games. He also gets the chance to get the monkey off his back today as he has never beaten the Rangers in his career, going 0-3 against them. Price, who was without a win throughout all of September, should get his first victory tonight since August 28, as Tampa Bay is an awesome 133-65 at home when priced from -125 to -175, and the Rays have won 10 of their last 11 home games overall. Additionally, the Rangers have dropped their last five games as underdogs of +120 or higher. Take the Rays.
John Ryan
25* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Tampa bay will win this game by 11 or more points. The Colts were a big winner for me last week against the Steelers, but I just do not see them putting on another massive effort this week. Teams, who play against the very physical style of the Steelers are just 23-40 ATS in the next contest. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-5 ATS for 82.1% winners since 1983. Play on favorites off a home win against a division rival when playing on Monday night. More impressive is that 19 of these plays or 70% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. The system has lost just once since 2000 sporting an incredible 11-1 ATS mark for 92% ATS winners. Unlike last week where the Colts defensive front was able to stymie the Steeler running game, the sim shows a very high probability that the Bucs will gain 125 to 150 rushing yards in this game. TB is a solid 35-13 ATS (+20.7 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards since 1992. TB is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Moreover, the Colts already without Manning and Kerry Collins dealing with concussion-like symptoms from last Sunday’s Steelers game, the Colts decided Friday to give Curtis Painter his first NFL start with Dan Orlovsky as his backup. Last Sunday Dallas Clark was used as a blocking TE instead of the elite receiver he has been for his career. One formation the Colts may use is a two TE set with Brody Eldridge used to block and then get Clark out in the slot manned up against a linebacker. That may work, but TB will not have to blitz to get pressure on Painter. If TB was forced to blitz then this Clark matchup would very significant. No doubt in my mind the Bucs will attack the Colts defense between the tackles. This negates the speed on the Colts perimeter defense and will force them to bring safety help to stop the run. As I so often say, when the safety(s) are in the box, then the play action pass in man coverage is a high percentage play with big play potential. The Colts play action will not work given that the Bucs may blitz only a handful of times in this game. Take the Bucs.
Fantasy SportsGametime
Play Texas (+125) over Tampa Bay (Top Play of the Day)
Texas has won 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won 13 of the last 18 games when playing on a Monday. Texas has won 39 of the last 55 games when batting .290 or better over the last twenty games and they have also won 50 of the last 80 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.
Play Detroit (-125) over New York Yankees (Bonus)
Ben Burns
10* Colts / Bucs Under 40
The Sports Capper
100* Tampa Bay (-10) over Indianapolis
Tampa Bay has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 games coming off a home game and they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games after allowing 30 or less rushing yards in their last game. Indianapolis has lost 6 of the last 7 games as an underdog and they are only averaging 15 points a game on offense this season.
TheSportsCapper Baseball Plays
50* Texas (+125) over Texas
Colby Lewis has won 11 of the last 17 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is also 2-0 vs. Tampa Bay over his career with an ERA of 3.27.
50* Detroit (-125) over New York
Detroit has won 4 of the last 5 games and they have also won 41 of the last 58 games as a favorite of -125 to -175. Detroit has won 16 of the last 21 games when batting .315 or better over the last five games and they have also won 59 of the last 96 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.
Paul Leiner
100* Rays/Rangers Over 7.5
50* Yanks +110
Jeff Benton
20 Dime Tampa Bay Bucs
10 Dime Colts / Bucs Over
Dom Chambers
80 Dime Detroit Tigers
Northcoast
2* Colts / Bucs Over
Bob Balfe
Tampa Bay Rays -121
There is something about these Rays this year that are destined to make a deep run into the postseason. Texas is not used to playing in a dome with this playoff pressure. I just do not think this is a favorable spot for the Rangers against lefthanded pitching. The Rays have a great bullpen and should get the critical game three win. Take Tampa.
Matt Fargo
9* Colts / Buccaneers Under
Nationally televised games typically bring out the over bettors and this is certainly the case for Monday night games. Also, the Sunday night nationally televised game had 51 points scored last night which is another typically heavy over bet. Because of this, we get value with the under as the number is overadjusted which we are definitely seeing here. We won with the under last Monday night as well as the under two Mondays ago (some may have pushed) and we once again will ride the contrarian side. The Colts have gone over the total in each of their last two games and I feel the value tonight is on the opposite side based on those recent results. Those two games came against the Browns and Steelers and both of those offenses and defenses are right in line with the Tampa Bay offense and defense yet we are seeing an increase in the total by a point. Granted a point is not much but it is the way the o/u has been adjusted which is the key as there are no other reasons it has increased other than public perception. Tampa Bay went under it is last game which came at home against the Falcons. The Buccaneers did an excellent job of slowing down the potent Falcons offense as they allowed just 13 points and 325 total yards. The Tampa Bay pass rush was the difference as it was able to win the line of scrimmage and we will see that again here against a very weak Colts offensive line. With the exception of Matthew Stafford using three-step drops, the Bucs have dialed up the pressure. They have six sacks the last two games. On the other side, the Colts defense has the one area of improvement as they have fewer points in each game going forward. The defense has been hurt by the offense as it has put the stop unit in too many bad situations with a short field. More than half of the 84 points allowed have resulted from punt and fumble returns for touchdowns or been set up by short-field situations. The Colts have yielded 43 points, 14.3 ppg, on drives longer than 28 yards. Which is a very respectable number. Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman is seventh in the NFL in completion percentage at 67.9 percent but is in the middle of the pack with an average of 227.3 ypg. Because he completes a lot of passes, it shortens the game and on the other side with another quarterback change, Indianapolis will be going with the running game which shortens the game even more. Going contrarian, the majority of the action is on a high scoring game yet the number has dropped from its opening of 42 and the reverse move tells the story.
Brandon Lang
30 Dime Teaser Colts & Under