Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. Take Green Bay +3½ over Minnesota
It is the game that needs no introduction and will likely be the most watched event on ESPN EVER! QB Brett Favre faces his former team in the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are atop the standing in the NFC North with a 3-0 record that included a dramatic come from behind victory last week against the San Francisco 49ers. In that game Favre through the go ahead touchdown with just two seconds remaining. That being said, the 49ers did cover that game and we had them as a selection and will go against the Vikings again in their second straight home game. QB Aaron Rogers played well in his game last week against the Rams throwing two touchdowns and numerous deep balls. I feel that these teams are evenly matched and this one will go right down to the wire with the Packers finding a way to win it in the closing seconds. One of the things novice gamblers get caught up when betting NFL games is the carryover effect. One would think that the Vikings will be riding high, but in truth there is no carryover effect. Everybody is a paid professional and momentum just does not propel teams to victory like it does in college football. Green Bay 27, Minnesota 24.
Pointwise Phone Service
2* GREEN BAY
SIXTH SENSE
3% MINNESOTA –3.5
MINNESOTA –3.5 Green Bay 45
Green Bay bounced back last week like I thought they would to defeat an inferior opponent. They out gained the Rams 6.5yppl to 4.9yppl, including out passing the Rams 10.0yps to 5.2yps. They were out rushed 4.5ypr to 4.1ypr. Minnesota had the miracle pass from Favre to defeat SF last week. They out gained the 49ers 5.0yppl to 4.7yppl, including out rushing them 3.5ypr to 2.2ypr. They were out passed by a weak SF passing game 7.2yps to 5.9yps. The Packers are average running the ball, gaining 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr and below average throwing the ball, averaging just 6.1yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 3.9ypr so they are also average defending the rush. They do allow 6.3yps against 5.7yps and 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl. Minnesota averages 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.6yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.7yppl. The defense has not been as good as past years, allowing just 3.5ypr against 3.7ypr but 5.1yps against 4.9yps and 4.4yppl against 4.4yppl, making them just average on defense. Minnesota qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 178-94-13, 146-76-7 and 449-289-21. Numbers favor Minnesota by 9.5 points and predict 59 points. I was very surprised by the total points predicted for this game. Too many question marks for me in this game to play the over. The Packers would be an above average passing team if they didn’t allow so many sacks but that is a troubled spot for them so far this year. GB has played the last six games here and either won outright or lost by three points or less. This series has been very competitive here. But, this is a bad match-up for GB. They are banged up on the offensive line – a line that hasn’t been able to protect the qb. They are banged up at the safety position, forcing them to use a linebacker there. Brandon Chillar was beaten twice last week for touchdowns trying to defend Ram players. The one thing GB has going for them is they played in a dome last week at St. Louis and faced a tough running back in Stephen Jackson, who they allowed to rush for a 117 yards last week (149 total for the Rams). So, they should be prepared for that this week but this week the running back and team are better than what they faced last week. GB needs to stop Adrian Peterson to have a chance in this game. I’m not sure they can do that. They also need to protect Aaron Rodgers to have a chance. I’m not sure they can do that. Situations, value, the fact Minnesota roughed up Rodgers last year here (Viking mistakes kept Green Bay in the game) and a short number make Minnesota the obvious choice here. I bleed Green and Gold so this is tough to do but Minnesota is the only choice. MINNESOTA 30 GREEN BAY 17
David Malinsky
5* Vikings
Al DeMarco
30 Dime - Minnesota Vikings
Note - As I expected, the public has made its move on Minnesota, pushing this line up slightly by 1/2 point, up to 4 most places with a few 4 1/2's floating around. Obviously the key is shopping for the best price, but no matter the case, buy down the 1/2 point whether you get this game at 4, 4 1/2 (or 3 1/2 if you're lucky). My regular followers know I'm a firm believer in buying down on or around 4 because of the number of games that end 31-27, 28-24, 24-20, 17-13, 14-10, etc. And that's a trend that has only escalated over the years since the advent of the two-point conversion and its successful deployment.
Strip away all the media hype surrounding Brett Favre's first encounter as a Viking with his former employers, and you have simply have two teams ready to do battle tonight. The host is favored by anywhere from 4 to 4 1/2 points. As I've noted previously, when lines are first announced on Sunday night, I handicap all the games and give them a projected line which I then compare to the actual posted price in Vegas. My line on tonight's game: Minnesota -7 to -7 1/2. Now you see why this play on the Vikings is rated so highly as the line - in my estimation - is still off by a field goal.
Much was made of Green Bay's success during the preseason, a time where its offense was unstoppable and the new 3-4 defensive scheme installed by veteran coordinator Dom Capers was providing immediate dividends. I watched their games and fell for the hype as well, forgetting that the preseason is simply four meaningless exhibition games primarily featuring second- and third-stringers. Yet in Week One, I was on the Packers as a 15 dime release in their home opener against Chicago and if not for a miracle 51-yard TD pass by Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes, I would have lost in a game in which the Bears thoroughly dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Green Bay followed its opening win against Chicago by losing at home to Cincinnati and then trouncing a woeful St. Louis club on the road a week ago. But red flags abound for the Packers, namely poor offensive line play and a defense that's been unable to stop the run or generate an adequate pass rush.
Rodgers has had precious little time in the pocket as he's already been sacked 12 times, hitting the deck a total of 10 times in the games against the Bears and Bengals. And his starting left tackle, Chad Clifton, is a game-time decision for this contest because of a sprained ankle. With or without his left tackle, Rodgers must contend with a Minnesota defense ranked fourth in the league overall with a 259.7 yard average yield. The Vikings, who were the No. 1 team in the NFL at stopping the run from the 2006-08 seasons, have also picked up eight sacks in the season's first three weeks with Jared Allen (two sacks, two forced fumbles) leading the way.
Defensively, Capers new 3-4 scheme hasn't been able to reach the likes of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer or Marc Bulger as it has accounted for only five sacks in three weeks of action. And the Packers have been vulnerable to the run; the Bengals Cedric Benson shredded them for 141 yards on 29 carries at Lambeau in week two. That same unit is now tasked with trying to stop the NFL's leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who has gained 357 yards on the season. In Green Bay's last visit to the Metrodome, Peterson ran for 192 yards.
Forget the trends and ATS angles in this one; Minnesota is simply the more talented team and that's the reason I had them pegged as a TD favorite in this contest at the outset. The discrepancy between my projected price and the actual number in Vegas is what gives weight to my belief that the Vikings win comfortably, making Favre's first shot against his former mates this season a successful one.
Mike Lineback
4* Vikings -3 -130 (1/2 pt buy)
Steve Budin
MINNESOTA
Sean Michaels
25 DIME Vikings
Stephen Nover
50-Dime Minnesota Vikings
To really like a game strong you have to have multiple factors working. That's certainly the case in this matchup with Minnesota.
The Packers have a soft run defense. It was exposed last week by Steven Jackson even though Green Bay was keying on him. Jackson is excellent, but Adrian Peterson is the best. He's averaged 113 yards and 6.3 yards per carry in four games against the Packers.
Brett Favre will be getting all the attention, but Peterson is the guy the Packers have to stop. I don't see that happening. The Packers couldn't stop him before when he didn't have a respectable threat behind center. Now Peterson has this with Favre. The velocity and touch are still there for Favre. The important thing is he's committed just one turnovers. He's getting more in sync with his wide receivers. No one will be pumped more for this matchup than Favre.
On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has been breaking the pocket too fast because of offensive line breakdowns. The Packers are going to have problems stopping Minnesota up front.
Ryan Grant is strictly a straight-ahead runner with no moves or juke. The Vikings are the toughest team to run against in the NFC. Grant is going to get nothing, so the Vikings will be coming hard on Rodgers.
The Packers' offensive line has played miserable this season. Their best offensive lineman, left tackle Chad Clifton, won't play because of an ankle injury. The Packers are really going to struggle against Minnesota's pass rush. This is going to be magnified playing in the noisy Metrodome where opponents frequently jump offsides because they can't hear.
Daryn Colledge will be protecting Rodgers' blind side, taking Clifton's place at left tackle. Colledge is not a left tackle. This is a stop-gap measure that isn't going to work in this setting. Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are going to easily control the line of scrimmage.
The Packers peaked in August. This is their first opponent that made the playoffs last season. The Packers' offensive line and defense, making the conversion to a 3-4, isn't ready for this opponent in this setting. The timing is wrong for Green Bay right now.
WAYNE ROOT
2009 Football Upset Club
4* Packers (+4½) over Vikings
Seabass
50* Packers
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3* GOY Minnesota