Chris James Sports
First Ever 7* NFL Game of the Year
Minnesota Vikings -5
Executive
200 Minn/GB Und
KBHoops
5* Vikings -4 -120 **POD**
Pitbull
20 units Vikings -4.5
Northcoast
2* Minn
Marquee Under
Wunderdog
Minn/GB Und
Kelso
Minnesota
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Vikings at Packers
Pick: Packers +4.5
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I don't think there's much to choose between these teams in terms of talent. There's also no advantage tonight in terms of emotion, as both the Packers and Vikings are going to be sky high for this clash. I'm actually a little surprised the number for this game is as high as it is after opening at -3, which I thought was actually the perfect line. In this game, that extra point or two can make a huge difference and I'm going to back the Packers plus the points to get the money this evening.
The Duke's Sports
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Green Bay ++4.5 for 2 Units
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Green Bay/Minn 8:30: The Packers are 5-1 ATS in this series and we feel we're getting value, again, with the Packers. The Packers are a sweet 15-5-1 ATS on the road and covered 5 of their last 6 as a road dog in this price range. GB QB Rodgers is seeing the field well in his progression and is getting good support from his teammates. And the running game should continue to help him settle in; after all, Ryan Grant is running well and sports 286 yards rushing with a 5.4 ypc average vs Minnesota. Defensively, the Packers need to play well with their focus on RB Adrian Peterson and dangerous rookie Percy Harvin. Favre is also a concern and his former teammates will be fired up and locked in to make the night rough on him. GB corners' Woodson and Harris are wily veterans that know Favre's tendencies. The road team is 11-3 ATS in this series and we'll stay on it here.
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Vancouver -150
Ron RaymondFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay vs. Minnesota
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In my view, the Packers should have been a -1 point road favorite in this spot, but when you look at the way the Vikings won their last game, they bookmakers wanted to be cautious, because they know the betting public is going to be hammering the Vikings. The Vikings are 3-0 SU on the season and they’ve beaten bad football teams like Cleveland and Detroit and San Francisco is a decent team on the rise under Singletarry. Green Bay could have scored 50 points against the Rams, but settled for 3 field goals in the first quarter last week. The strength of both teams are their defense and this could very well turn into a field goal game and with the hook at the end of that 3, Packer backers cover!
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ATS Trend: When GREEN BAY PACKERS team played as a Road team - Playing on Monday - Allowed 14 - 21 AGAINST in their last game; the Packers are 9-2-0 ATS in this role. Take Green Bay.
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Green Bay vs. Minnesota
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This total is not being priced accurately. Last season’s games between these two teams had totals set at 37 and 44 points. Now this season the total is inflated to 46 points. The second game between these two teams last season had Minnesota winning a 28-27 game for a combined 55 points. However, that game is somewhat of an anomaly, as there were two safeties, a long touchdown pass, a 54 yard field goal, and an interception and punt return for touchdowns. Essentially half of the points came off of big plays that don’t happen very often, especially all of them in one game. In addition, this contest has the most hype around it than any regular season game in recent memory. Both teams are going to be very amped up for this game, and usually that means a slow start for both teams. Green Bay has been excellent against the pass this season, while they have struggled against the run. Minnesota will no doubt have a run focused offensive game plan, which means the clock will run more and thus the game will be shorter with less possessions. In addition, the Vikings have one of the best defenses in football, and they will be focused on shutting down the Packers. Last season Green Bay only got 174 yards of total offense against Minnesota. If I had to make a selection on the side in this game, then I would look at Minnesota, but I feel that they are over valued now with the line at -5. Green Bay will load the box and force Brett Favre to try and beat them. However, the Packers have an excellent secondary which should be able to contain the Vikings passing game, especially since they know Favre’s tendencies. Look for this game to be hard fought and lower scoring than the total would suggest.
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3 UNIT SELECTION UNDER
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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Green Bay vs. Minnesota
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For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the "under": After watching every analyst and their dogs talk about tonight's game during yesterdays "Half-Time" reports, there is little point getting into the Favre's past and the significance of this game for him. What we can get into though are some cold hard numbers; the Vikings are fourth in total defense, allowing 260 yards per game and have have eight sacks. To say his teammates, on both sides of the ball, are anxious to get this victory for him would be an understatement; “I think everybody knows what’s at stake, and more importantly we’re on a roll right now,” linebacker Ben Leber said. “I know that we want to go out and fight for Brett and get a win for him, but at the same time we want to be 4-0. It’s been a huge motivation for us to be 4-0 and just keep this streak going. That’s our main concern.” Favre has just one INT this season and is limiting TO's and stupid mistakes. His counterpart, Aaron Rodgers has only completed 65.7% of his passes this year and Green Bay is averaging just 105 yards on the ground per contest. Favre is the central figure in all of the hype, but I believe the Vikes will look to run this ball first and for Brett to continue play a disciplined game and to limit his mistakes and to control his adrenaline. Dating back to last season the total has gone under the posted number in four of the Vikings last six overall, and behind a heavy dose of Adrian "Clock Killing" Peterson and the Vikes continued domination on the defensive side of the ball, I expect this trend to continue; when taking into account all of the above factors I have to recommend a play on the Under.
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Green Bay vs. Minnesota
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The Packers meet Brett Favre and the Vikings in the Metrodome Monday night in the long awaited rematch between Favre and his ex-mates. Green Bay takes the field knowing they are 6-0 ATS away as dogs or favorites versus division foes on Mondays, while the Vikings are 0-7 ATS as favorites of more than 2 points on Mondays versus division opponents. In addition, Favre is 2-4 SU and ATS in his career as a Monday night favorite of less than 4 points. With all the pressure on Favre and his new team, look for his old team to spoil the party here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Green Bay.
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MNF Oddsmaker Mismatch
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Green Bay vs. Minnesota
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We like the Packers more than the Vikings to begin with. Minnesota’s 3-0 SU start is a bit phony considering two of the three wins have come against the likes of Detroit and Cleveland (both bottom-feeders) and the other was a miraculous last second play to beat San Francisco at home. We are not convinced that the Vikings are that much better with Favre under center, although his apologists will be quick to point out that neither Tarvaris Jackson nor Sage Rosenfels could have ever made that play against the Niners. What we do know is that Favre is due for a bad game here as he tries and press too much against his former mates and probably throws something like three interceptions. On the other hand, we are expecting a focused effort from his “protégé” Aaron Rodgers, who has been picking apart Cover-2 defenses with ease over the last season-plus. That might have something to do with the fact that Rodgers College team, Cal, ran the same defense and he saw it every day in practice. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS off a home game the past two seasons and 0-6 ATS off a home win. Green Bay has been a great play in NFC North games, going 14-5 ATS under HC McCarthy, and you have to figure none have ever been as important as this one. Minnesota has won five straight division home games, but is just 2-3 ATS in those games and 3-9 ATS their last 12 home games overall. The Underdog in this series has cashed 13 of the last 16 meetings here in the Metrdome. Public is taking this number the wrong way as we just cannot see the Vikings move to 4-0. Green Bay is our MNF Oddsmaker Mismatch.
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Minnesota