NSA
20* Ravens +2
20* Chiefs +4.5
20* Braves -180
The Duke's Sports
Baltimore (+2) for 2 Units
We like the Jets and their brashness; however, their offense is suspect and that should be the difference here. QB Sanchez did not look good in the pre-season with poor reads and missing wide open receivers. And he has limited weaponry until Holmes (suspension) comes back. The Ravens have a solid run-stop unit and we'll look for them to be able to limit the Jets' offensive strength running the football. On the other hand, QB Flacco has a plethora of weapons to go to now that Hushmandzadeh and Boldin two off-season acquisitions team with Derrick Mason and TE Heap. And Ray Rice is an emerging Pro Bowl running back. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in this series, including 3-0 ATS at New York. And the Ravens sport a 6-0 ATS in September. Baltimore the call.
BOB BALFE
Colorado Rockies -155
The Giants already leaped over the Padres and now Colorado, who is on a ten game winning streak, will look to do the same. You just do not go against a team on a huge winning streak at home at such a critical part of the season (assuming the value is not above -200). Great value here with the Rockies. Take Colorado.
Don Wallace Sports
5* Baltimore +1.5
Jeff Benton
20 DIME KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
10 DIME BALTIMORE RAVENS
CHIEFS
You know I’m big on exposing fishy pointspreads early in the NFL season, and this Chargers-Chiefs number doesn’t smell right at all.
Think about it: Kansas City has won exactly 10 games against 38 losses over the past three full seasons, including five straight losses to San Diego (three at home). The Chargers, meanwhile, have won four consacutive AFC West titles, and prior to a stunning 17-14 home loss to the Jets in the playoffs, they ended the 2009 regular season on an 11-game winning streak.
Furthermore, every preseason publication and NFL pundit has the Chargers cruising to their fifth consecutive division title, while most have Kansas City pegged for another sub-.500 season.
Given all these facts, why is San Diego such a short favorite tonight? Hell, the Chargers have been the chalk in each of the last eight series meetings, but never have they been favored by this small of a number. Doesn’t that seem strange to you? Sure does to me. And I think I’ve got the answers as to why.
First off, the Chargers enter the season without two of their three most important offensive players. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson (a Pro Bowler and one of the best deep-threat wideouts in the game) and left tackle Marcus McNeill (also a Pro Bowler charged with protecting Philip Rivers’ blindside) are embroiled in a contract standoff with manaegement. Neither will be on the field tonight (or in uniform anytime soon).
Rivers and his teammates have said all the right things about the holdouts the entire offseason, insisting that the absence of Jackson and McNeill doesn’t change their goals and won’t impact the offense. I beg to differ. You don’t lose two Pro Bowl players and not have some residual effects. More specifically, you also don’t go on the road into one of the NFL’s most hostile environments with a new left tackle (who is second-year undrafted free agent) and without your most pivotal receiver.
Secondly, as I’m sure you know, the Chargers haven’t exactly been quick to get out of the gate the last few years. Since Norv Turner became the coach in 2007, San Diego has had a losing record through the first five weeks of each of season (cashing in just five of 15 early-season games). Two years ago, the Bolts lost 26-24 to Carolina as a 9½-point home favorite to start the season (losing on the final play of the game), then last year San Diego barely got out of Oakland with a 24-20 win, needing a late fourth-quarter rally and once again falling way short as a 9 ½-point chalk.
As for the Chiefs, there’s no question they’ve been a disaster the last three years. But they’ve stockpiled a lot of talent through the draft and free agency the last two years and that talent is on the verge of producing for second-year coach Todd Haley (who wisely hired former Patriots assistants Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel in the offseason to be his offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively).
Finally, although the Chargers have won three straight times in Kansas City, the Chiefs have covered in eight of the last 11 clashes at Arrowhead Stadium. Also, two of San Diego’s last four wins against Kansas City have been one-point nail-biters. With the Chargers missing McNeill and Jackson, with San Diego being a notoriously slow-starter and with the Chiefs possessing a big home-field advantage with a prime-time game at newly remodeled Arrowhead, we’re looking at another Chargers-Chiefs clash going down to the wire.
Take the value with the underdog, as this one will be decided by a field goal. And if the Chiefs end up with the outright victory I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked.
RAVENS
I’ve got one word for you regarding the 2010 New York Jets: FRAUD! And tonight, that fraud begins to get exposed, as the Ravens are simply a much better all-around football team. I know what you’re probably thinking: “But wait, didn’t the Jets go to the AFC Championship Game last year, making it a round further than Baltimore? And doesn’t it figure that with Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez are in their second year on the job and a ton of offseason acqursitions that New York will be even better this year?”
The answer to the first question (obviously) is yes, the Jets did go further than the Ravens last year. The answer to the second question is no, they’re not going to be better this year. Because the fact is they weren’t very good last year. Remember, New York stood at 7-7 heading into the next-to-last week of the 2009 season, then caught the biggest scheduling break I’ve ever seen. First, the Colts (with nothing to play for) pulled their starters in a Week 16 game in Indianapolis, allowing New York to steal a win. Then the following week at the Meadowlands, the Bengals (with nothing to play for) sat all their starters and the Jets cruised to a win at home.
Those two victories allowed the Jets to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. Then the breaks fell their way again, as they matched up against Cincinnati for the second straight week in the wild-card round (and the Bengals shot themselves in the foot constantly in that game), then went to San Diego and shocked the Chargers (who also killed themselves with mistakes and played ridiculously tight in the fourth quarter).
Give the Jets credit for getting as far as they did last year, but they weren’t nearly as good as they were lucky. And the main reason is Sanchez played like a rookie for most of the season. Just look at the numbers: 53.8 percent completion rate, 12 TDs vs. 20 INTs and a 63 passer rating. And after watching his awful play in the preseason, I think Sanchez will actually be WORSE in his sophomore season, especially with defenses stuffing the box with eight and nine defenders to stop the run and force Sanchez to beat them (which he can’t).
On the other side of the field, the Ravens are much further along with their quarterback. After a pretty solid rookie campaign, Joe Flacco avoided the sophomore slump by passing for 3,613 yards, 21 TDs and just 12 INTs (his 88.9 QB rating was 25 points better than Sanchez’s!). And now Flacco has weapons on the outside, as the Ravens upgraded their receiving corps with additions like Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Donte Sallworth. And don’t forget Baltimore has one of the league’s most electrifying RBs in Ray Rice (who’s a weapon both on the ground and in the passing game).
Bottom line: The Jets have done a lot of talking this offseason, and most of the media and public have been eating it up. But now they have to back up their talk with action, and they’re not going to be able to do it – not tonight against the Ravens (who, unlike the Jets, are a legit Super Bowl contender) and not against any of the other upper-echelon NFL teams.
Take the points, but look for an outright upset!
THE KING MAKER
10* San Diego Chargers -4
10* Baltimore Ravens +1.5
Hot Shot Sports
5* Braves Over
5* Nationals
Northcoast
Monday Nite Magic - Chiefs
Marquee - Jets Under
Dave Cokin
NY Jets -1
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units San Diego -4
1 Unit Baltimore +1
1 Unit Baltimore Orioles -137
Mike Lineback
4* 6 Point Teaser Ravens +7.5 & Chiefs +10.5
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City Chiefs +5
The final game on the NFL's opening week menu finds the Chiefs hosting the Chargers in this West Division battle at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. San Diego head coach Norv Turner has never been a fast starter, posting a losing 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS record in season openers, including a 0-4 SU and ATS mark versus division foes. That doesn’t bode well for the visitors as the Chiefs perform well when they open the season on their own reservation, notching a 9-2-1 ATS log in Game One at Arrowhead since 1983. Todd Haley’s crew will be also eager to avenge a pair of blowouts they suffered at the hands of these same Chargers last season, which sets the stage for this little beauty: Kansas City is 14-7 SU and 16-4-1 ATS as division home dogs with revenge, including 5-0-1 ATS within the first four games of the season. Grab the points in this matchup tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Kansas City.
Tony George
Ravens / Jets Under 36.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
NY Jets -2
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
The Ravens went 8-7-1 ATS last year; 9-7 SU. They went 3-1 ATS in this year's pre-season.
Baltimore is hoping the additions of Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmanzadeh will improve their passing game; and while it may very well do that, I believe it's going to take a bit of time before these guys start meshing seamlessly with each other.
I firmly believe that Rex Ryan has gotten into the heads of the Ravens, which will ultimately let the Jets offense catch the Ravens on their heels.
“They kind of build their defense around him a little bit in the sense that they can lock him up on an island and just let him cover out there,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “What do they call that place? Revis Island? He’s a great player. I’m sure they’re thrilled to have him back, and we pretty much figured he was going to be there.”
Ray Lewis has also been caught up in the verbal battle.
Keep in mind that Baltimore will also be without the services of Ed Reed for the six weeks due to a hip injury.
And that's bad news as the Jets led the league in rushing last year.
It's important to note that Baltimore did in fact go 1-3-1 ATS its final five on the road last season; 3-5-1 ATS its final nine.
On the other side of the field: The Jets went 9-7 ATS last year; 9-7 SU and lost in the Conference Finals to the Colts. They went 2-2 ATS in this year's pre-season.
New York's defense was first in the league last season and I believe has a very legitimate shot at repeating that agains this year.
New York reserves its best play for conference opponents; over the last two years 18-17 ATS; it also gets out to quick starts; 5-2 ATS over the last two seasons in the month of September.
Bottom line: I like the Ravens this year, but I believe that there are simply too many factors working against them and feel that home field advantage can not be overlooked in this case as well; when taking into account all of the above information;
Sean Higgs
10* Ravens
4* Over Ravens
5* Chiefs
5* Under Chiefs
4* Pirates
4* Rockies