Vegas Sports Informer
2 Unit Play. Take Over 43 San Diego at Oakland
I’m looking for a huge offensive bang from the San Diego Chargers Monday night against the Oakland Raiders. San Diego should be able score in the 30 range against the Black/Silver and if the Raiders can hit double-digits we will be happy. San Diego is 7-0 O/U in the month of September. Oakland is 4-1 O/U in Week 1.
SIXTH SENSE
Opinions
NEW ENGLAND –10.5 Buffalo 47.5
Buffalo looked absolutely terrible this preseason, especially on offense. Last year they averaged just 5.9yps against 6.5yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall. The defense was average, allowing 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. NE lost Tom Brady in the first game last year but still managed to win 11 games, averaging 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They will get much better on offense this year. The defense was just average allowing 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. NE qualifies in a week one situation, which is 93-56-5 but they don’t qualify in the better parts of that situations. Numbers favor NE by 10 and predict 41 points. Buffalo has lost eight straight games to NE in NE. They also haven’t scored more than 17 points here over the last 10 years. Over those 10 years, eight of the ten games have totaled 37 or less points. NEW ENGLAND 27 BUFFALO 16
San Diego –9.5 OAKLAND 43
Oakland Raider fans still await the arrival of Richard Seymour after NE dumped him off to NE for a first round draft pick. Raider fans also probably can’t wait for Al Davis to go. The Raiders averaged just 5.1yps against 6.3yps last year and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense they were above average against the pass, 6.4yps against 6.7yps, but below average against the run, 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl. SD came on at the end of the season and ended up with very good passing numbers, averaging 7.7yps against 6.2yps but were well below average rushing the ball at 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr. Overall they averaged 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they were just average, allowing 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game and the numbers favor SD by just 6.5 points and predict about 41 points. SD has dominated this series having won five straight games here, including the last four by 10 or more points. It should be pointed out SD led by just three points last year but broke a long touchdown run trying to run out the clock to win by 10 points. I’ll lean ever so slightly to SD in this game. SAN DIEGO 24 OAKLAND 13
Pointwise Phone Service
3* New England
Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. Take San Diego -9½ over Oakland
The Raiders are a mess and I am not sold on JaMarcus Russell as a quarterback in this league. The Chargers started out slow last season and they were extremely lucky to make the playoffs, as Denver completely collapsed. Because of that they will not take this game lightly and expect them to win it by double digits. The Raiders got blown out by Denver on MNF in the opening week last year, 41-14, and I believe that team had more talent then this team. Nobody can understand why the Raiders selected Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh overall pick. The Chargers won both of the games last year by double digits and this one will follow suit as well.
Bill Young
6* Oak +9.5
Indian Cowboy
3 Unit Play. Oakland Raiders +9.5 against the San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are a road favorite of -9 and still the public hammers them. It’s a surprise to me that the public continues to hammer Oakland despite the fact the home dog here on Monday night football will be catching nine points. The line opened up at 7 and has moved up to 9 and even 9.5 in some books. Outside of the home game against the Saints, Oakland looked relatively decent in the preseason. This team does have a legit running game with McFadden and has brought a good crop of young receivers on board. I like Oakland here to hang tough and they can certainly stay competitive with their variety of quarterbacks if they need to switch at some point during the game. At the end of the day, Oakland is still one of the toughest places to play in the league and catching nearly double-digits on a Monday Night Football game, with the underdog and against a very partial public is too good to pass up in my book.
Rated Picks
GAME OF THE YEAR
San Diego Chargers -9.5
Gold Sheet LTS
1 unit San Diego Chargers
The Boss
300% New England
300% San Diego
Indian Cowboy MLB
5 Unit Play. Game of the week. Take Under 9.5 between Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles (Monday @ 7:05pm).
David Hernandez comes off one of his worst outings of his career. He gave up 6 runs in in less than three innings to Boston on the road. The Orioles went on to lose that game 0-10 at Fenway. Hernandez needs a quality start at home today as he faces another quality team in the Rays. Hernandez has good stuff and he showed it against the Oakland A's when he won 3-2 earlier this year as well as defeating the Redsox at Fenway. I look for him to get back to form as he faced two of the best teams in the league in Boston and New York. David Price also faced the Yankees and Redsox in back to back starts. He gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings in New York but picked up a no-decision against the Yankees as the Rays fell short 2-3. David has pitched 4 of 5 quality starts and I has not picked up a win since August 29th at Detroit and I expect him to look for the win today. I like the 9.5 line here as Price and Hernandez both are on bounce-backs of sorts and I think this game can stay within single digits. I talk often about the 65% and -130 line. Basically what it states is when there is a consensus of 65% on a team, in particular, a road team and the line still remains at -130 and doesn't shift too much, Vegas is expecting a quality start from the home dog pitcher. Consequently, this game has a sound chance of going under. We have cashed on this principle several times already and I see no reason to change here. The Under is 5-0-1 for Price when the total is set at this range of late and the Under is 7-3 when the Orioles face a lefty of late.
Kelso
15 Units Tigers (-1½ Runs, -130) over Bluejays
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
FantasySportsGametime
25* Play Chicago Cubs (-155) over Milwaukee
Chicago has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also won 18 of the last 26 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Ryan Dempster has won 7 of the last 9 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and he is also 10-2 vs. Milwaukee over his career with an ERA of 3.33.
25* Play Minnesota (-155) over Cleveland
Cleveland has lost 10 of the last 13 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 13 games coming off seven or more home games. Jeremy Sowers has lost 17 of the last 22 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 7 of the last 8 games when working on seven or more days of rest.
igz1 sports
3* LA Angels +105
3* Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110)
Dave Malinsky
Top of the Ticket - Total
4* HOUSTON/CINCINNATI Under
If you are looking for two hitter pitchers right now than Wandy Rodriguez or Bronson Arroyo, you have to look long and hard. But because neither pitches for a contender, and because Arrroyo in particular is being anchored down by full-season statistics that carry a lot of unnecessary clutter, we are afforded more than fair value here, especially with all key arms in both bullpens rested and ready. Rodriguez has held the opposition to one run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts, and absolutely brilliant run. But we also get a bonus here, as he only threw 85 pitches in his last outing, and that means more than the usual freshness for this time of the season. Meanwhile Arroyo battled with carpal tunnel syndrome earlier in the season, and it led to a couple of disastrous outings that inflated his ERA. But he is at full health now, and also full confidence, working to a sparkling 1.39 over his last six starts, a span in which he has worked at least seven full innings each time. And in his last three starts from this mound he has allowed only three runs over 24.1 frames. But because he was only credited with two wins over those six games the markets paid little attention, instead using his full-season numbers as an anchor to weigh him down. Neither Jose Valverde nor Francisco Cordero worked yesterday, as was the case with the prime set-up men. That means quality pitching from both sides in every inning of this one, and two struggling offenses will be hard-pressed to make anything happen.
Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, -120) over Pittsburgh
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-150) over Cleveland
1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-110) over Florida
1-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-1.5, -130) over Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take Texas (-1.5, -110) over Oakland
Today’s Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Tampa Bay at Baltimore
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Toronto at Detroit