Charlie
Buffalo +11, Oakland +10, San Diego @ Oakland over 42' (500*)
Buffalo @ New England under 47 (30*)
St. Louis-115 (20*)
Angels+110 (20*)
Astros @ Reds over 7' runs (10*)
MTi Sports
4* Cinn
4* Oak Under 9'
3* Ariz Under 8
Tim Trushel
20* Underdog GOY Reds
Raiders
CStar Sports
5000 Units New England Minus the points over Buffalo
1000 Units San Diego/Oakland over the total
50 Units MLB Florida/ ST Louis under the total
Maddux Sports
3 units Oakland +10
ATS Lock Club
2 Units Patriots
Chris Jordan
400♦ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - While everyone seems to be chatty-Kathy about the Patriots tonight in their AFC East battle with Buffalo, I am stuck on the ‘other’ team being touted as Super Bowl-caliber, and their jaunt up North to play AFC West-rival Oakland. Led by all-Pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson, I expect the Bolts to absolutely run roughshod through the beleaguered Raiders tonight.
Adrian Peterson lent plenty of hope to Vikings fans yesterday, not to mention lighting up Fantasy scoreboards across the nation; time for L.T. to do his thing. If Peterson is All Day, consider L.T. to be All Night. As in that’s how long he’s going to bring the spotlight back on to him.
The Broncos had a win tipped into Brandon Stokley’s hands, the Chiefs lost in Baltimore and now there’s these two in the AFC West. Quite frankly, it’s a difference in class. If these were four thoroughbreds, the Chargers would be the only one allowed in a stakes race.
And with Tomlinson fired up to rekindle the flame Peterson has seemingly stole from him, and quarterback Philip Rivers coming off an incredible season that saw him lead the league with a 105.5 passer rating last year while throwing for 34 touchdowns, with just 11 interceptions, I don’t believe Oakland has the personnel to stop the Chargers’ offense.
As for the Raiders’ offense, you might as well dress them all up like Tila Tequila, because according to his ‘tweets’, Shawne Merriman is on a mission to destroy anything in Silver and Black. Enhancing them to appear as an 85-pound Asian stripper look-a-like would only make things better.
I know they used to be King of Monday nights, but let me tell you something, according to reports out of Oakland, owner Al Davis is none too pleased with his careworn Raiders being on national television, especially in Week 1. He said he doesn’t like the fact his team has to board a plane in four days to head to Kansas City, but how is that different from when his organization was 24-3-1 on Mondays back in the 70s and 80s. That tells me one thing – he knows his team has nothing to stand up to the Bolts and heading into this season.
Could it be the Raiders have lost six straight on Monday nights by a combined score of 173-41 – including season openers against these same Chargers (27-0 in 2006) and the Broncos (41-14 in 2008). And oh yes, those were both in Oaktown. The Silver and Black have lost 10 consecutive nationally televised games – the last half-dozen by a combined tally of 151-33, an average final of 25.1-5.5.
One of the aforementioned TV games was a 34-7 loss to the Chargers last season, albeit that one was in San Diego. I doubt much has changed, other than the faces in Oakland. And since the Bolts are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS the last 11 meetings in this rivalry, I’m thinking the play tonight is on San Diego.
All three of these plays are on the Run Line
100♦ TEXAS RANGERS (WITH Feldman) - Texas is in must-win mode at this point, as it lost two of three against Seattle over the weekend and is now four games back of Boston in the American League Wild Card race. Normally, I might say it’s a given the Red Sox are a shoo-in at this point, but with 20 games left in the season, and the Crimson Hose playing in the almighty A.L. East, nothing is for sure. The Rangers catch an Oakland team that won’t be able to challenge Scott Feldman, who has been dominating most recently, allowing one run over 26-1/3 innings and winning his last four starts behind a stifling 0.34 ERA. More importantly, Feldman won both of his starts against the Athletics this year, allowing four runs and nine hits in 12 innings. He’ll get the run support, as Brett Tomko toes the slab for the A’s, and the Oakland right-hander is 1-2 with an 8.74 ERA in five starts against the Rangers. Take the home team on the run line.
100♦ L.A. DODGERS (TAKE Garland over McCutchen) - Trust me, the heat is on the Dodgers to win baseball games right now. And I don’t mean squeak games out, I mean blasting folks. This is the perfect chance to distance themselves, as Colorado is in San Francisco, while the Bucs are in L.A. The Dodgers realistically have a fairly easy schedule remaining, with seven games left against the Pirates, the National League Central’s and three against arguably the worst club in baseball, Washington. The Dodgers and Pirates haven’t met this season, but Los Angeles has won five of seven each of the last two years in this series. And since the Dodgers are back in Chavez Ravine after winning series in Arizona and San Francisco during a 4-2 road trip, I think the momentum will guide this team to a sweep of the Bucs. Lay the run line with Los Angeles tonight as it shreds the visiting Pirates.
100♦ S.F. GIANTS (TAKE Lincecum over Hammel) - The Giants couldn’t ask for a better situation if they’re thinking about getting back into the postseason race. Colorado is ahead in the National League Wild Card standings, but the home team has been dominant in this rivalry this season, while the Giants have arguably the best pitcher in the game on the bump tonight. Nothing’s impossible, as San Francisco already pulled into a tie with Colorado for the wild-card lead once, after sweeping three games at home against the Rockies at the end of last month. That was when Tim Lincecum struck out eight over eight innings in a 2-0 victory for the Giants on Aug. 28. San Francisco is 5-1 against the Rockies at AT&T Park this season. Laying the run line is tough in a rivalry game like this, but the Rockies’ Jason Hammel is hittable. Tonight I expect the Giants to put it on him, and Lincecum to pitch a gem.
Vernon Croy
Monday Night NFL Smash (100% Perfect Angle)
3* Take the Buffalo Bills
The Bills are a much improved team coming into this season although you likely couldn't tell from the meaningless preseason games so for them to be double digit dogs in week one of the NFL season we must capitalize on it even against the Patriots. Buffalo is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in week 1 of the NFL season and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. The Patriots are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of -10.5 or more and they are also just 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -10.5 or more. Grab the points with the Buffalo Bills as my Monday Night NFL Smash.
Tony Salinas
25* LA Angels (+105) over NY Yankees
24* Brewers (+145) over Chicago Cubs
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
10* Tor/Det Over 8.5
10* Cubs -160
7* Marlins +102
7* Texas RL
5* Balt +130
ALATEX
REG: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS UNDER 7
TONY BRUNO WINS
10 Dimes HOUSTON ASTROS
King Creole
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Play on: UNDER
One of the topics in this week's Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET covered the area of HIGH Over / Under lines in week one action. And the recommendation is to go UNDER the Total in these games. If you followed that plan yesterday, you went 4-1 overall.6-27 O/U since 2000: All NFL Week One games in which the OU Line is 45 > points. In the last 5 years, these games gave gone an amazing 1-14 O/U. Yesterday's results for these game: Colts / Jags: WINNER... Cards / Niners: WINNER... Packers / Bears: WINNER... Saints / Lions: Loser.
This New England / Buffalo AFC East division series has had VERY Low-scoring results in the last 10 years. These teams are 4-16 O/U vs each other in the last 20 meetings. And when playing IN New England, the results are 1-9 O/U. Average OU line: 39.7. Average combined points: only 34.2.
BIG favorites on Monday night football have also trended UNDER recently.2-9 O/U since 2000: All MONDAY home favs of > 10 points (Pats), If the OU Line is > 36 points, the results improve to 1-8 O/U.
Speaking of Mondays. let's look at the division aspect of this game.2-8 O/U since 2002: All MONDAY division home favs with an OU Line of 45 > pts.
Buffalo comes in with Revenge from a couple of losses last season (both went UNDER!).10-23 O/U since 2004: All GAME ONE teams playing with division Revenge (Bills). These REVENGERS went 1-4 O/U yesterday. And when the OU line is > 43 points, our 10-23 O/U System improves to 1-7 O/U.
Let's look at the point spread / OU line combination:1-8 O/U since 2004: All GAME SIX or less division home favs of -3 to -13 points... with an OU Line range of 46 to 48 points (Pats).
Here's a query based on last year's WIN totals for the host Patriots:2-12 O/U last 4 years: All GAME ONE home favs of -3 to -13 points.... if they won 11 or more games the previous season (Pats).
I ran a final query for AFC EAST division battles in the first half of the season. When the OU Line is relatively higher, the UNDER has ruled.1-8-1 O/U since 2003: All AFC EAST division games in the first TWO months of the season when the OU Line is > 41 points (Like tonight).
Andre Gomes
OAK +10 vs SDC
This game is in my opinion a situational play that we cannot afford to pass. The Chargers are one of the favorites to win the AFC and eventually the Superbowl. So, it's not a surprise that already in their first game of the season, the public is jumping all over them. The line opened at -7 for them and we have already now the possibility to get a touchdown plus a field goal for the Raiders. Typically this isn't a good spot to bang in a double digits favorite team that plays on the road against a divisional opponent in their only National TV game of the season. The perception of the public is that this is a no brainer for the Chargers. After all, the Chargers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings against the Raiders and even the Associated Press started the preview saying the following: "When the Oakland Raiders were last under the bright lights of prime-time football, they were on the losing end of a 34-7 score to the San Diego Chargers." Does that game matters for tonight's game? I don't think so, but that is one of the reasons for the Chargers be getting such amount of hype for this contest.
About this contest, the Raiders have the proper game plan that a double digits underdog team should have to be competitive: they will run and run the football tonight! They have a competent Running Backs duo in McFadden and Justin Fargas. Both are both capable of topping the 1,000-yard mark in a season and I expect them to receive extended action tonight. QB JaMarcus Russell is still trying to be the unanimous quarter back of this franchise and one of the reasons for Russell to be taking so much time to achieve that is the Raiders' Offensive Line of the past. However they look improved for this season as starting lineman are RG Cooper Carlisle, RT Cornell Green, Center John Wade, and free agent pickup LT Khalif Barnes coming over from Jacksonville. This group weighs in at an average of over 300 pounds and Russel should have more room to operate. Naturally the Chargers have a terrific potential defensive unit, but they need to prove it on the field. Shawn Merriman's return is the biggest boost to this team's defense, but he passed more time talking to the media in this preseason than putting his body to work and the Chargers aren't yet a reliable defensive team that can be put at the same level of the best defenses in the league right now.
The Chargers are a scaring team offensively, no doubt about it! Philip Rivers enjoyed a huge season last year, WR's Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson are one of the best 1-2 punch WR's of the league and they have already two dynamic RB's that can change a game in any given moment in Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. With all "this" greatness of the Chargers offense, we almost forget that the Raiders are also improved this season in the defensive side of the field.
They have a pretty consistent secondary unit. They re-signed cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha -- a great move, as he's shown himself to be an elite player. Chris Johnson also seems to be coming into his own a bit at Oakland's other cornerback spot, so that pairing could be dynamic. Hiram Eugene and Tyvon Branch are competent players at safety. Their biggest problem is their Defensive line. Last season they were 31st against the run but they signed this week Richard Seymour from New England. I understand that he's not the player he once was, but his presence at least gives Oakland a pass-rushing threat and I can't see an imperial Chargers march happening in tonight's game.
My projected scenario for this game is the Raiders to give a consistent and aggressive effort all night and I wouldn't be surprised if they score a "meaningless" Touchdown down the stretch that kept the score in a single digits points win for the Chargers. This is the risk of betting in a double digits favorite on the road and gladly, we have the chance to get 10 points for the Raiders tonight. My real line for this game is the Chargers for a Touchdown plus 0.5/1 points and that's why I'm taking the Raiders in here.
Single Dime Play on Oakland Raiders +10
Doc's Sports
3-Unit Play Take San Diego Padres -150 over Arizona DBacks
3-Unit Play Take Texas Rangers (-1.5 -110) over Oakland A’s