Strike Point Sports
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3-Unit Play. Take Indianapolis -3 over Miami
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The Dolphins looked quite horrible to begin the year, so no reason to think they are all of a sudden going to be fine against Peyton Manning and company. Indy's defense is tops by any stretch of the imagination, but I think their unit is stronger than Atlanta's and we saw what the Falcons did to Miami. John Abraham had success getting to Chad Pennington, so I think Dwight Freeney can replicate that pressure and keep him out of sync and hopefully that means more turnovers. Indy minus the number on Monday Night.
Doc's Sports
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4 Unit Play. Take Miami +3 over Indianapolis
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Home dogs have been big money in the bank on Monday Night Football and we expect this pattern to hold true once again when two playoff teams from last year met up in Miami. The Dolphins looked bad last week in Atlanta and this is a much more important game for them since they do not want to fall to 0-2 on the season. WR Gonzalez got injured in the Colts opener against Jacksonville and will not play in this game and thus the Colts will be without their No. 2 receiver. In the NFL, when good teams play, usually the team that needs it more gets the victory and with a road trip to San Diego on deck for the Dolphins, the Fish definitely need this more. Miami kicks a late field goal and the underdog and us both earn the straight-up victory. Miami 23, Indianapolis 20.
Robert Ferringo
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Play On: Miami (+3) over Indianapolis
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I am not particularly thrilled with this side. However, the strongest consensus NFL pick on the board from Doc's Sports this weekend is the home underdog on Monday Night Football. The general consensus was that after watching both home dogs come out strong last Monday the trend should continue. The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS as a home dog on Monday Night Football and they should be set for a bounceback performance after getting worked over by Atlanta last week. Miami shot itself in the foot with four turnovers last week and I'm sure they have cleaned that up. Indianapolis, on the other hand, looked uninspiring in its home win over a pretty weak Jacksonville club. This Colts team just does not look as good as ones in the past and I think that they are ripe for an upset. Miami is a physical team that should be able to run the ball, control the clock, and keep this one low scoring. Again, the Doc's consensus pick is that Miami and the points are good!
Gamebreaker
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Miami / Indianapolis
Pick Miami +3
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Nice home dog situation. A solid team and defense vs a public-loved team. Add in a proven NFL system that goes against road favs that won but failed to cover the previous week. Almost 80% of the public is hitting this one and it will probably increase on Monday as usual. But the line has moved DOWN from -3.5. Hmmm. We've seen this movie before and guess where the sharp money is landing. Take Miami +3 for a 3* play.
SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
Indianapolis -3 MIAMI 42
A couple of deceiving scores last week as Indy defeated Jacksonville 14-12 but out gained Jacksonville 5.2yppl to 4.1yppl. Indy was out rushed 4.4ypr to 2.3ypr but they out gained Jacksonville 7.5yps to 3.9yps. Miami lost 7-19 at Atlanta but out gained Atlanta 4.6yppl to 4.3yppl. They out rushed Atlanta 96-65 and 4.4ypr to 2.5ypr. They were out passed 5.6yps to 4.8yps. They lost the turnover battle 0-4 and 12 of Atlanta's 19 points came on very short drives. Indy qualifies in an early season situation, which is 82-36-9 but Miami qualifies in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 124-63-5, 535-406-30 and 444-28-21. Numbers favor Indy by two points and predict about 41 points. Miami played four games at home last year against above .500 teams and lost by 6, 14, 20 and 18 points. Indy played seven games on the road last year against teams at .500 or above and they struggled to win any of those games by much. The largest victory they had on the road against the better teams was by four points and the largest victory margin they had against the poor teams they faced was seven points and that was against Jacksonville, who they needed an interception return late in the game to win by seven. Bad situations for both teams, IMO, and situations going both ways. Better opportunities down the road. INDIANAPOLIS 21 MIAMI 20
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2* INDY
Ben Burns
10* TOW - Colts Under
Bob Valentino
30 DIME: Colts-Dolphins UNDER
Bryan Leonard
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American League Super Play
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Texas at Oakland
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The Rangers are fading fast in the west having lost 6 of their last 7 games. The future doesn't look bright as they have really struggled with division foe Oakland. The A's have won 7 of the last 8 games in this series and Oakland is really playing well right now. They enter play tonight on a current 12-2 run. They are doing it with timely hitting and solid pitching. They haven't allowed more than four runs in any of their last seven games.
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Kevin Millwood started the year very strong but he has faded as of late. He only has one quality start in his last five outings. During that time he has allowed 22 earned runs in 26 innings. A sure sign of the veteran tiring is to look at his strikeout to walk ratio of his last six starts. He has posted a 20 to 21 mark, well below his seasonal rate.
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The A's will counter with Edgar Gonzalez who has fared extremely well in three of his four starts this season. This is the third time he has faced Texas this year.
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The A's are simply not getting enough credit for the way they have been playing. The line is predicated too much on the need of the Rangers. The better team gets the win here and that club right now is the host.
PLAY OAKLAND
Marc Lawrence
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MLB GAME OF THE YEAR
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Houston Astros
FRANK PATRON
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10000 UNIT NFL LOCK
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3
Wayne Root
4* Miami Dolphins +3
The Nevada Boys
Underdog MLB Destroyer
15* NY Yankees +100
Indian Cowboy
5 Unit Play. Game of the week. Take Under 8.5 between the St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
4 Unit Play. Take Under 182.5 between San Antonio vs. Phoenix
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Club
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3
Monday Night Football on ESPN heads south to Landshark Stadium for an AFC matchup between the host Miami Dolphins and the visiting Indianapolis Colts. Miami is coming off an opening week loss to the Atlanta Falcons 19 to 7 in ATL while the Colts won at home 14 to 12 over the Jaguars.
The Dolphins turned the ball over four times and the Falcons turned those into ten points. That’s a far cry from what the Fins accomplished last season in that department with a +17 margin in turnovers. Turnovers are a big problem for the Dolphins because they can ill afford giving the opposition any easy scores knowing they have only topped 17 points three times in their last nine games. The Dolphins are 0-9-1 ATS after scoring 14 or fewer points and turning the ball over at least three times in their previous game since 2001 and 7-23-2 since 1989.
The Colts use a Cover-2 defensive scheme and this lends itself to the short passing game if you have a QB that is accurate and the Dolphins do in Chad Pennington. The key for the Colts will be Dwight Freeney and Company getting pressure up front and not allowing the Dolphins to peck away at the yardsticks. Even with success at that type of offensive game plan they are certainly not a threat to put up a ton of points against anyone as evidenced by their inability to score more than 17 points per game recently.
The Colts opener appeared closer than it really was they dominated the Jags with 365 total yards of offense compared to only 228 by Jacksonville. With Manning calling the shots there is no reason to believe this Colts offense cannot score against the Dolphins “D”. The Colts were not only dealing with the first game of the season they were also adjusting to their new coaching staff which should be much more fluid this week with the first one under their belts.
The Dolphins opened the season as an underdog and are now installed as a home underdog after winning 11 games last season and pulling off a miraculous turnaround in 2008. Miami is 10-29-2 ATS when installed as an underdog coming off a game in which the total was at least 40.5.
Oddsmakers are not giving them a ton of respect to start the season and it appears that is a valid assessment of the Fins at this time. If the Dolphins were installed as a 3 or more point underdog in their previous game they are 14-32-3 ATS.
They led the league in turnover differential with a +17 but were only seventeenth in the league in yardage differential which means that they were very lucky in 08 and the oddsmakers do not expect a repeat performance this season.
Miami has struggled at home outside their division posting a record of 8-21 ATS their last 29. In fact they have struggled at home against pretty much anyone going 3-13-1 ATS overall and 0-3 both SU and ATS in their last three home openers. Last season even while they were winning SU they could not cover the number going 2-7 ATS at home in 2008. The Dolphins are 0-9 ATS at home when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week and 0-9 ATS at home off one or more consecutive unders.
Indy on the other hand finds themselves in several winning situations this week. Indy is 16-8-2 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 points or less, 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 road openers and 20-11-2 ATS in September. They are 13-4 ATS as September road favorites, 7-0 ATS as non-division road favorites, 5-0 ATS playing on MNF off a SU win, 5-0 ATS as MNF favorite of two or more points, 6-0 ATS on the road facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date and 10-0 ATS as a road favorite when their opponents season-to-date rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Colts coming off a game in which they punted 3 or fewer times during the first four games of the season are 15-0 SU winning by an average of 15.6 points per game and 13-0-2 ATS covering the spread by 9.6 points per game.
A check of the database reveals two powerful NFL league-wide systems that support our selection. The first says to Play ON an undefeated Monday non-division conference favorite of less than 20 points with a TOTAL over 40 points. These favorites have posted a record of 11-0 both SU and ATS and they average covering the spread by a whopping 16.7 points per game. Secondly; In Week 2, play AGAINST a non-division team (not a favorite of more than 3 points) with a TOTAL over 37 points off a road underdog SU loss in its last game and before a road contest in its next game. These Play AGAINST teams are 0-11 both SU and ATS failing to cover the spread by an enormous 17.3 points per game.
With significant technical, situational and fundamental support for the visitor we will lay the short price with the Colts as they move to 2-0 on the season and put another “L” on the host Dolphins in Landshark Stadium on Monday night.
Graded Selection: 3* Indianapolis Colts 23 Miami Dolphins 16