Sid Paradise
8* Miami +3.5
4* Miami +2 1H
3* Colts/Dolphins Under 41.5
JASON JOHNSON
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Colts at Dolphins
Pick: Colts -3
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Every part of me wants to believe that Miami can win their Monday night home opener but after watching theie offense last week, I just don't think it's possible. The Wildcat was a nice wrinkle last season but coaches have quickly found a way to shut it down. QB Chad Pennington just doesn't have the arm to make downfield throws so safeties are creeping up toward the line of scrimmage and stopping the run.
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On the other side of the ball is Peyton Manning who has an arm that kills cornerbacks. The emergence of Joseph Addai as one of the league's top backs has made Indy's play action game the best in the NFL.
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Indianapolis scores too many points for the Dolphins to keep up. 27-17.
SAM CLAYTON
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30 DIME - STL/HOU UNDER 8.5
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As some of you know, I've been talking about a big Monday play all weekend long. I sat back Saturday and Sunday and avoided all the football games because I knew that this was my spot. After I saw the opening total that Vegas set for this game, I immediately called up my local, logged into my online account and proceeded to hit it hard with both. And to be perfectly honest, this would probably still be a premium play even at 7.5. Don't get me wrong, I implore you to shop around for 8.5 and buy the hook if you must, but know full well that this line is a gift.
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Monday night's NL Central showdown pits two struggling teams (and offenses) against each other in what should be a real slugfest (chuckle). All jokes aside, both the Cardinals and Astros haven't been hitting much of anything lately. In their last seven games, St. Louis is averaging 2.2 runs per game while Houston comes in scoring an even lower 2.14 runs over that span. The Cards haven't scored more than three runs their last five games and the 'Stros have plated four runs or more only twice in seven contests. Translation: These offenses have been pathetic. And with St. Louis having the NL Central all but locked up and Houston having nothing but offseason tee times on the mind, I believe this game is going to be a full scale pitching battle.
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Wandy Rodriguez (13-10, 2.77) gets the call for the Astros and he has been absolutely sensational all season long. Wandy has some of the sharpest stuff in baseball and his ability to avoid the big inning places him among the elite. He's holding opposing hitters to a .238 clip, he doesn't walk many hitters and his WHIP hovers around 1.20. Most runners that reach base on the southpaw usually don't make it very far and the majority find themselves stranded. Rodriguez also boasts a 8-2 record with an insane 1.58 ERA at Minute Maid Park this season. On the bump for the Redbirds is Kyle Lohse and while he's been hit-or-miss in 2009, his numbers against Houston are very good. The former Twinkie is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in two starts this year against the Astros and it's not like the Houston bats are heating up. If anything, they are ice cold and I see a great opportunity for Lohse to capitalize. Never known for being a great road starter, the right-hander has been surprisingly fair lately as he's allowed more than three runs only once his last four starts on the highway.
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Those that have been following my picks know that I'm a strong advocate of important intangibles when I see them. And today I actually have a couple. In games that Wandy Rodriguez has started this season, the under has cashed 20 of 30 times. Delving deeper, 9 of Rodriguez's last 10 starts have gone south of 8.5 runs and he's only posted four overs since June 5 (18 starts). Lohse's O/U numbers are just about even, he's posted 8 unders in 18 starts, although he's the type of pitcher that adapts with the flow of the game. It sounds silly, but if he doesn't get too worked up and doesn't try and throw the ball through the catchers' mitt, he'll be just fine. Rodriguez is going to be the one that sets the pace of the ball game and Lohse will follow right along. I expect a low scoring affair as both starters have downright nasty stuff and they shouldn't have many problems keeping their struggling offensive opponents off the scoreboard.
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Play the UNDER.
Payne Sports
Miami +3 for 6 units and Under 42.5 for 8 units
Both of these sides have had reverse line movement with the public pounding the over and the Colts of course. Miami will do one thing all night and that is run run run. They want to keep Peyton off the field and who can blame them. They have had a nasty taste in their mouth since last week as the should of beat Atlanta in Atlanta if it wasn't for all the turnovers. Under dog is 8-1 the last 9 in the series and the Under is 7-2 the last 9 on grass and 10-2 the last 12 week 2 football games for Miami. Look for a slow start and a possible 7 points total first quarter as the clock ticks the game away.
Marc Lawrence
Triple Perfect Monday Night Key Play
Colts
joe wiz pay after you win sports service
monday night parlay of the year:
colts & colts over must win or no payment
added bonus: braves
ncaaf: 2-7 (-5.70 u)
nfl: 1-2 (-1.20 u)
mlb: 7-1 (+5.30 u)
The Duke's Sports
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San Francisco (+108) 1.5 Units
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The Giants are a solid 7-3 in the last 10 meetings vs Arizona. SF is still fighting for a wild card slot while AZ has virtually thrown in the towel. SF controls an 8-3 run with Zito, who sports a 2.36 ERA over the last two months. On the other hand, Doug Davis has fallen off in production with a bloated 5.88 ERA over his last 6 outings. And Davis controls a lofty 6.11 ERA in his last 3 vs SF. AZ remains a sluggish September team on a 5-13 demise while batting .236 with an inflated 5.29 ERA. We'll go with SF which is 8-2 in game 1 of a series.
Vegas WiseGuy Sports
COLTS -3
Robert Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-145) over N.Y. Mets
1.5-Unit Play. Take Oakland (+105) over Texas
Today's Totals
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 San Francisco at Arizona
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 St. Louis at Houston
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at N.Y. Mets
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Texas at Oakland (10 p.m., Monday, Sept. 21)
Anthony Redd
15 Dime - 6 Point Teaser
Dolphins and Colts-Dolphins Under
NSA
20* Bos
10* NYY
10* Atl
10* Min
20* Miami +3
10* Under 42
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy
Colts/Dolphins ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on Miami +3.5
The Miami Dolphins SHOULD NOT be catching points at home Monday night. Yes, they played terrible in a Week 1 loss at Atlanta. But the Dolphins have played out-of-character dating back to their playoff loss last year against Baltimore. The Dolphins have committed 9 combined turnovers in their last 2 games, after committing only 13 in all of 2008. Look for Miami to get back to playing sound football this week after a sharp week of practice. Indy is a notorious slow starter, and they started 3-4 last year before reeling off nine straight wins to end the season. Their offense put up just 14 points at home against Jacksonville last week, and they were very fortunate to come away with a 14-12 victory. The Colts won't be so fortunate on the road Monday. Miami's defense is stout, giving up just 19 points to Atlanta last week despite the offense turning the ball over four times. The formula is simple for Miami, don't turn the ball over and they win because they have one of the best defenses in the league. The underdog is 8-1 (89%) in the last 9 meetings in this series. The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record, while the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite. The Colts are missing Bob Sanders, their defensive stopper. WR Anthony Gonzalez went down with a knee injury against the Jaguars, and that leaves Reggie Wayne as the Colts' only proven target outside. Indy won't be playing up to their capability until they can get healthy, and until then they are VERY susceptible to getting upset. Take Miami and the points. (Take Miami +3 if you can't get in at +4)
Chris Jordan
100♦ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Brandon Lang
10 Dime Dolphins
Friends of Mike Lee
3* CWS Under 8'