GARCIA COVERS
Green Bay
Green Bay/Chicago Over
National Sports Service
Green Bay
LA Angels
Chris Jordan
300* Green Bay -3
Black Widow
Green Bay -3
Phillies -1.5
Northcoast
2* Chicago Bears
Rocketman
3* LA Angels
The Duke's Sports
Chicago (+3) for 2 Units
The Bears broke out offensively last week with an impressive win at Dallas. Great early adjustment by OC Martz after Dallas was throttling Cutler on blitzes. Martz backed off the 7 step drop and had Cutler check down to slants and quick look in routes to the TE. Martz now has the personnel to effectively run his offense -- QB with a strong arm, speedy wide outs, quality TE and a decent RB. GB is another aggressive attacking style defense. Packers' DC Capers will zone blitz from all angles. We'll look for the Bears to counter effectively. On the other hand, the Packers are an explosive offensive team and should put points on the board; however, now that Urlacher is healthy, it is tough to run on the Bears. And he covers a lot of ground deep in the hole in Cover 2 schemes -- weakness last year for Chicago. Chicago is a sweet 11-5 ATS as a small home dog, and 5-1 ATS as a division home dog. After getting swept last year, the Bears should bring their game tonight.
Tom Freese
Red Sox at White Sox
Pick: Boston -115
Boston starter Clay Buchholz is 18-9 in his 27 team starts this year. The Red Sox are 6-0 their 6 games as road favorites. Boston is 14-4 in the last 18 starts made by Buchholz on the road. The Red Sox are 13-3 in game one of a series and they are 6-1 their last 7 road games. Chicago starter Mark Buehrle has allowed 17 runs in his last 4 starts. The White Sox are 3-9 their last 12 games vs. righty starters and they are 0-7 when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Pale Hose are 1-8 with Buehrle vs. AL East teams. The White Sox are 0-6 their last home games. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON BOSTON
Keith Martin Sports
LA Angels -125
NY Yankees -135
Jeff Benton
Monday Night Winner #4 in a Row ...
20 DIME -BEARS
I’m sure all my colleagues who back the Packers today will quote the following stats:
The Packers are on spread-covering runs 35-17-2 overall, 21-8-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a favorite, 10-3 in divisional games and 11-5 as a road favorite of three points or less, while the Bears are in ATS slumps of 3-8 overall, 1-5 at home, 7-18-2 against winning teams, 3-8 against divisional rivals and 3-11 as an underdog. And Green Bay has taken three of four from Chicago the last two years (going 4-0 ATS).
Can’t argue with any of those numbers, because they’re all 100 percent true … and 100 percent meaningless. Why are they meaningless? Because this is a three-point spread we’re dealing with, which pretty much means whatever team covers the spread almost certainly will win the game.
Clearly, I believe Chicago has a great chance to win this game outright – and if not for some crappy take-back odds, I’d have a small money-line play on the Bears.
So why am I believing in Chicago here? Three reasons:
1) Green Bay, which lost RB Ryan Grant to a season-ending ankle injury in Week 1, does not have a reliable running back – or at least a running back that the Bears fear. The Packers could get away with being one-dimensianal offensively against the Eagles and Bills (their first two opponents that have subpar defenses). I don’t see them getting away with it tonight against Chicago, which has forced three turnovers in each of its two games while allowing a total of 34 points (7 of which came on a punt return) against the explosive Lions and Cowboys.
2) Hate when I have to admit that I’m wrong, but it looks like I indeed was about the Jay Cutler/Mike Martz marriage. The Bears are averaging 385.5 total yards per game, including 316 through the air, with Cutler connecting on nearly 70 percent of his throws for 649 yards with a 5-1 TD-to-INT ratio (this is the guy who led the NFL with 26 interceptions last year, more than both rookies Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. Six of Cutler’s picks game in two games against Green Bay, which Chicago lost by six and seven points.
Obviously, two games do not a season make, but Cutler (whose 121.2 QB rating) looks like an entirely different guy. And I know the stats show the Bears have less of a running game than Green Bay, but that’s because in Martz’s offense, Chicago gets the ball to its RBs (namely Matt Forte) through screens and short passes rather than traditional hand-offs. And Forte has been tremiendous in two games. Know this, too: The only quality QB that Green Bay has faced in the first two weeks was Mike Vick, who came off the bench in Week 1 and picked apart the Packers with his arm (175 passing yards) and legs (101 rushing yards) in a little more than two quarters!
3) Finally, home underdogs have been hitting more than missing so far this NFL season (including the 49ers getting the cover against the Saints last Monday night). True, home ‘dogs went just 3-4 SU and ATS on Sunday, but look at the four home ‘dogs that failed to produce: Jacksonville (vs. Philly); Carolina (vs. Cincinnati); Tampa Bay (vs. Pittsburgh); and Denver (vs. Indy). I don’t think it takes an NFL savant to figure out the Bears are vastly superior to the Jaguars, Panthers, Buccaneers and Broncos, whose quartelbacks are David Garrard, Jimmy Clausen, Josh Freeman and Kyle Orton, respectively!
Bottom line: I’m a BIG fan of the Packers – I used them as my free selection last Sunday when they destroyed the Bills – and I truly believe they’re a Super Bowl caliber squad. But the Bears showed me in last week’s 27-20 win at Dallas that they’re much better than the experts (and myself!) thought they’d be. This will be the Packers’ toughest challenge by far, and I simply don’t trust them to be laying points on the road in a rivalry game on Monday night – not when they don’t have a running game, and not when Cutler and the Bears are hell-bent on revenge a
Anthony Redd
75 Dime Packers/Bears Under 46
25 Dime Packers -2.5 Buy Half
Wunderdog
3 Units Packers/Bears Under 46
Mike Lineback
4* Green Bay
Bettor Wins
5 Units Chicago Bears +3
Sam Clayton
2* Chicago Bears +3
Let me start out by saying I was SHOCKED at how much Vegas respected the Bears here as this line could have easily been 4 or even 5 for that matter. As a brutally honest Chicago fan, I can attest that the Bears are a little overrated at the moment and it's safe to say they are not worthy of a 2-0 record after that horrible call against Detroit. However, for all the smack being talked about Chicago, I'm not exactly sold on the Pack either. After knocking Kevin Kolb out of the opener in Philly and handling a shell version of Mike Vick, they blasted Buffalo (yawn) at home. After literally squeaking by Detroit in their home opener, the Bears went into Dallas and upset the Cowboys. And I don't care how much people try and talk it down, for this team to go into Big D and win outright was HUGE.
We learned in Dallas that not only can Mike Martz adjust to defensive pressure --- Cutler actually began doing TWO STEP drops --- but the reason this Bears team is so scary is because of that rejuvenated defense. Comparing Chicago's starting defense against Green Bay last December and the one coming into tonight is like comparing night and day. The Bears have SIX different starters including superstar right end Julius Peppers, HEALTHY linebackers Brian Urlacher and Pisa Tinoisamoa, on-the-come safeties Danieal Manning and Chris Harris, and pass rusher extraordinaire Mark Anderson opposite Peppers. Chicago boasts the best run defense in the NFL (56 total ground yards in two games) and is tied for second in the entire league with six takeaways. More than just numbers though, these guys are all over the place, hovering around the box, tipping passes and stuffing all runs between the tackles. It's the best defense I've seen since the Super Bowl season five years ago.
There's already enough pressure on Aaron Rodgers to come out strong through the air and throw the first punch, yet things only seem to get harder with starting tailback Ryan Grant out for the year. If the Packers aren't able to establish the run or their patented short shovel pass, play action becomes null and void and Rodgers has to beat you alone. Believe me, I think the former Cal slinger is a Top 5 QB right NOW but man does this game look dangerous for Packer backers with how stingy the Bears' D has proven to be.
Motivationally speaking, the Bears are in DOUBLE REVENGE mode after being swept by Green Bay last year and with the confidence and leadership of Peppers and Urlacher added to the mix, I LOVE the home dog in this spot. More on Urlacher, him being able to play at 100 percent for the first time in YEARS is a blessing. Unable to recover after losing him to a wrist injury in Week 1 last year, the Bears seem to have righted the defensive ship with their quarterback back smack dab in the middle of everything. No. 54 looks faster and stronger than ever and he certainly hasn't lost his awareness. I won't add a long spiel about backing a "too easy" public road favorite like the Packers on Monday night, but you understand what I'm getting at.
In all honesty, I see a very good Packers team with pretty much the same offense as last season going into the Windy City on Monday Night Football to play an IMPROVED team on BOTH sides of the ball ready to return the favor for last season's two losses. Motivation isn't everything in football, but in this rivalry it's pretty damn important. Everytime Green Bay comes to town, regardless of who's under center, the Bears seem to dig deep and find that extra edge. Especially in Chicago, these games come down to the wire seemingly every single year. Think it's a field goal game either way and I would not be surprised to see the underrated Bears take this one and shock the world. The Packers in my eyes are one of my favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but this is going to be a very TOUGH game for them in Chicago with that rocking Soldier Field crowd.