Ben Burns
10* MNF TOM - Green Bay Under
DR. BOB
Opinion
CHICAGO 23 Green Bay (-3.0) 21
Over/Under Total: 46
Mike Martz has struck again. Martz has improved offenses wherever he’s gone, starting as the offensive coordinator for the Rams during their Super Bowl years and then moving on to Detroit, where they had a much better offense after he arrived. Martz moved on to San Francisco and the Niners were much better in his year there than they were before or after he left. Martz is now in Chicago and the Bears have exploded for 316 passing yards per game at 9.2 yards per pass play and 6.7 yards per play in their first two games. They averaged 6.7 yppl against a bad Lions’ defense and then averaged 6.8 yppl last week against a good Cowboys’ defense. The Bears’ new offense will get another test tonight by a good Packers’ stop unit that’s allowed just 4.4 yppl in their first two games (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). I don’t expect the Bears to continue to average 9.2 yards per pass play, but quarterback Jay Cutler had a couple of very good seasons (7.0 yppp) with Denver before last year’s poor season in Chicago – so he’s certainly capable of averaging 7.5 yppp in a Martz offense.
Green Bay has a good offense too, although the rushing attack is hurt by the loss of RB Ryan Grant, but Chicago has allowed just 4.6 yppl in their first two games and should slow down Aaron Rodgers and company. My ratings pick this game even and the Bears apply to a solid 79-31-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. I’ll call for the upset and take the Bears plus the points.
Evan Altemus
3 Units Packers / Bears Over 46
Last season’s games between these two teams went under the total. However, there are a variety of things different this season. Green Bay is missing two starters in their secondary, and while the Packers have limited opposing passing attacks this season that statistic is deceiving. They played the Eagles and Bills, two teams with less than stellar passing games. However, when Michael Vick came into the game against the Packers, he was able to move the ball rather easily against them through the air, throwing for 175 yards in limited action. Meanwhile, Ryan Grant is out for this game for the Packers. The Bears have also been fairly decent against the run this season. Last week, Dallas was able to throw all over the Bears, despite losing. With the Grant injury, the Packers are going to throw even more, especially with Rodgers playing well. Chicago’s offensive line isn’t very good, but Mike Martz has developed a quick passing system that has enabled Jay Cutler to get rid of the ball faster, limiting the problems with the offensive line. I expect both teams to air the ball out, and the Bears should also be able to score in the red zone with the weak Packers rush defense. Look for both teams to have over 20 points and for this game to go over the total.
Lenny Del Genio
Chicago White Sox +110
This is one of our favorite MLB betting situations as the Red Sox hit the road after having to play the Sunday Night Game. This is a huge scheduling disadvantage as every other MLB team plays during the afternoon on Sunday and the Red Sox are off a loss in extra innings to the hated Yankees to boot. The White Sox swept the only previous series between the teams this year, outscoring Boston 13-7. The Red Sox have lost money vs. lefties this year and tonight draw veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle, who owns a 19-8 team start record at home the last two seasons when working on five or six days rest. He has beaten Boston both times he's faced them the last two seasons and Chicago enters in as the far hotter team off a sweep of the Angels (won four straight overall). The Pale Hose have been outstanding as a small home dog L3 seasons (+125 or less), going 26-11. Buehrle has a 35-12 TSR here at US Cellular Field when the team has won its previous two games. Wrong team favored tonight. Chicago is our 15* Situational Play of the Week.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
SD Padres -140
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Carlos Zambrano gets the nod for the visitors; Zambrano has been nearly unstoppable since coming back from assignment; however it's important to point out that Chicago is in fact 2-4 its last six overall; also interesting to note that it's 1-9 its last 10 vs. the Padres, regardless of the location; it's also 44-57 (-13.2 units) vs. right-handed starters; and a deplorable 29-40 (-4.3 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.
In the other dugout: Tim Stauffer heads to the mound for the home side; Stauffer has pitched extremely well and I expect to continue; he's 5-4 on the year with a 1.95 ERA.
The Padres are 4-2 their last six overall; also important to note that they're 39-30 (+10 units) after a loss (lost 12-2 vs. Cincinnati yesterday).
Bottom line: This is a big game for the home side and we're getting fantastic value here on a great pitcher; Zambrano has been equally if not even more impressive, however I believe he's been overachieving, and will suffer a letdown behind a determined home side; San Diego is trying desperately to keep pace with the Giants;
SPORTS UNLIMITED
3* GB PACKERS
Dave Cokin
Solid Gold - GB Packers