Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play New York Yankees (-250) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
New York has won 20 of the last 21 home games as a favorite of -225 to -250 and they have also won 37 of the last 46 day games. New York has won 7 of the last 8 overall games and they have also won 30 of the last 43 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers.
Play Philadelphia (-200) over Atlanta (Bonus)
Play Los Angeles Angels (-280) over Seattle (Bonus)
Great Lakes Sports
4* Maryland Terrapins
4* St Louis Cardinals
3* Cleveland Indians
3* Texas Rangers
Dom Chambers
30 Dime New York Yankees -1.5
20 Dime Florida Marlins
Jeff Benton
30 Dime LA Dodgers
Jimmy Boyd
5* Yankees -1.5
3* Miami
Ben Burns
10* Miami / Maryland Over
Dr Bob
Opinion
MARYLAND (-4.0) 27 Miami Fla 23
Miami-Florida has to play this game without 7 starters and 2 important backups and one of those starters is 1st Team All-ACC LB Sean Spence, who registered 17 tackles behind the line of scrimmage last season. Starting quarterback Jacory Harris is also suspended for this game, but backup Stephen Morris played a lot last season and was actually much better from a yards per pass play perspective and equally bad in throwing costly interceptions. Harris averaged just 5.7 yards per pass play against FBS competition that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback and he threw 15 interceptions on 270 pass attempts (5.6%). Morris played most of the second half of the season and averaged 7.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB while throwing 9 picks on 153 passes (5.9%). Morris actually completed a lower percentage of passes (53.6%) than Harris did (54.8%) but Morris had more big plays and averaged 15.1 yards per completion while Harris averaged just 12.1 yppp. Some of that difference is just random variance and I don’t expect Morris to average 15 yards per completion again, but Morris is certainly at least as good at Harris would have been and could once again be better despite not winning the quarterback battle in summer camp. The big losses in the pass attack is at wide receiver, as top big play receiver Travis Benjamin was suspended for this game and projected starter Aldarius Johnson has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. The Hurricanes should still have a good rushing attack with Larry Miller and Mike James (combined for 1044 yards at 5.9 ypr) taking the place of last year’s leading rusher Damien Berry, who averaged just 4.7 ypr. Miami’s offense is still good even with the suspensions, but they’re not any better than a solid Maryland defense that was 0.6 yards per play better than average last season and should be just as good this year.
The biggest impact of Miami’s suspensions will be on defense, as losing Spence, 3 top defensive linemen, and starting SS Ray-Ray Armstrong, who was 3rd on the team in tackles last season despite starting only 3 games, will make the Hurricanes’ defense about 0.4 yppl worse than they would have been based on my studies on the impact of defensive statistics of individual players. Miami goes from being 0.5 yppl better than average defensively to being about average defensively with the suspensions and it could be worse than that. Maryland is nothing special offensively, but quarterback Danny O’Brien isn’t going to be feeling as much pressure as he would have if Miami’s defensive line were intact for this game. The Terrapins should move the ball at an average rate of 5.5 yppl while Miami’s offense is projected to average 5.2 yppl in this game based on my ratings. My updated ratings favor Maryland by 4½ points with a total of 50½ points, so I have no opinion on the side in this game, as that line was adjusted accurately for the suspensions. I do lean slightly with the over.
Lines2Win
Tigers +105 (3 Units) - Detroit has scored 35 Runs in three days and to top it off Fister is 2-0 with a 0.83 Era. How the hell is Detroit underdogs against the Indians.
D'Backs +103 (2 Units) - A tale of 2 teams headed in different directions. Arizona is headed to the playoffs, and they know what must be done. Miley hasn't been bad and we can't see AZ losing this one.
Paul Leiner
100* Maryland/Miami Over 46.5
50* Rays/Rangers Over 7.5
Today's Picks
New York Mets +125
Keith Glantz
100* Red Sox
50* Miami / Maryland Under
WUNDERDOG
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +100
The party is over for both of these clubs as the twins started ugly, put on a rush, but failed by a long shot. The White Sox have played themselves beyond arms-length vs. the Tigers. Phil Humber has some enticing overall numbers, but the late season ills have shown him tumbling in effectiveness. What was a terrific start has been soured by the fact the Sox are 0-6 in his last six starts while he tries to find answers in what has left him with a 7.16 ERA over the swoon. The Twins will be glad to get home where they are a highly profitable 53-23 in their first game back following a seven game road trip or more. The Sox haven't cracked the code on how to beat this Twins team, now facing an 18-37 mark in the last 55 meetings, and a white-flag waving 9-24 in Minnesota. This call goes to the Twins in GAME ONE OF A DOUBLEHEADER.
Maddux Sports
Cardinals
Mets
W Sox / Twins Under GM 2
KELSO
10* Units Pittsburgh Pirates -150
3* Units Detroit Tigers +110
Jason Johnson
Miami at Maryland
Pick: Miami +3
know the Hurricanes are playing with a slightly depleted squad this week but the fact remains that this team is simply more talented than Maryland. No Jacory Harris under center? I'm OK with that. Harris has been getting progressively worse over his college career. I'd rather see backup Stephen Morris who let Miami to a 26-20 win over the Terps just last season. The then freshman put together an 82-yard drive and tossed a 37-yard TD pass with just over 30 seconds remaining to give Miami the win.
Don't let Maryland's 9-4 record last season fool you. The Terps didn't beat anyone worth noting while losing to Miami, FSU, West Virginia, and Clemson. I don't expect much improvement this season either.
Take the points and you may even want to lay a little on the money line.