David Malinsky
4* Phillies / Mets Under 7.5
Totals do not come home much more easily than the 1-0 result we got between these two teams last night, but this one has a chance to produce a similar flow. Once again we have the hapless Met offense in a matchup in which they are unlikely to produce much, while the Phillies also bring an over-rated offense to the table, one that has been buoyed by major production in several unusual late-game eruptions since losing Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, but in reality is nothing special at all.
The Mets scored five runs against Roy Halladay on Sunday, but there was nothing wrong with his stuff – he had 10 K’s vs. only one W allowed, and since the All Star break it has been 40 K’s vs. only three W’s. Having shut the Mets out on three hits in a complete game earlier this season there are no issues concerning this matchup, especially with the New York offense having been held to one run or none 11 times since the 4th of July. If anything Sunday’s game makes this a “Play On” for a pitcher that brings the pride of Halladay – over the past three seasons he has worked to a 2.08 tune over a significant sample of 164.1 innings in games following allowances of four runs or more. Throw strikes against the Mets, and they are not going to be able to make much happen.
Meanwhile this may appear to be an injury call-up for the Mets, but we do not see it that way – Pat Misch shows plenty of merit off of a solid 11-4/3.23 at AAA, with only 24 W’s in 150.2 frames, and a 2.10 ratio of ground ball outs to fly outs. His current form is also first rate, with no runs allowed in two of his last three outings, and only two W’s in his last five, and with the Phillies having little experience against him, he can match Halladay by throwing strikes and forcing a limited attack to beat him. We only a couple of good passes through the lineup from Misch, with those back-to-back complete games from Johan Santana and R. A. Dickey bringing a fully rested bullpen, and Franky Rodriguez also available again.
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Boston Red Sox PK
5 Units Atlanta Braves -130
4 Units Milwaukee Brewers Over 10.5
4 Units Miami Dolphins -3
4 Units GB Packers -3
Tim Trushel
MLB AL O/U Game of the Year
Chicago WS Under 9
Ben Burns
Rays
Indians
Tigers Under
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Units Tennessee +4
3 Units Houston/Arizona Over 32.5
BIG AL
TOM - Orioles/Rays Under
Executive
650% GOY - Rangers
Larry Ness
10* Daytime Dominator
San Diego Padres
Andrew Lange
20* Chicago WS Under 9
PPP
4* Miami Dolphins
3* Pittsburgh Steelers
King Creole
3* ARIZONA / WASHINGTON OVER
Combined a couple of out-of-form starting pitchers with a big-time "OVER: Umpire. What do yo get? A HIGH-scoring outcome in our nation's capital on Saturday night.
Getting the call behind the dish tonight is LARRY VANOVER.... who comes in with an 'OVER' percentage of 65% on the year (13-7 O/U). That's the 4th HIGHEST 'Over' percentage of ALL 75 full-time Major League Baseball Umpires. As far as Vanover's current form, it;s ALL good. He's gone 4-1 O/U in his last 5 games (10.8 RPG)... and 11-2 O/U in his last 13 games dating back to the middle of May. A look at Vanover's recent strikeout-to-walk ratio reveals a recent tendency toward a LOT of free baserunners (as in walks). And 'free passes' GREATLY increases our chances for a high-scoring outcome. In his last 7 games, Vanover has rung up 95 strike outs... and 71 walks. That's a ratio of only 1.33 K's for every BB.
Ian Kennedy of the D'Backs is in a current funk. His ERA is a whopping 6.75 in his last 4 starts, He's gone an almost PERFECT 4-0-1 O/U in his last 5 starts... with both teams combining for 12.8 RPG. So he;s ALLOWED a ton of runs... and his teammates are getting him a lot of offensive support as well (Arizona is scoring 7.0 RPG for him). He just started against the Nats LAST week... and couldn't make it out of the 5th inning (4 IP / 4 ER / 8 hits).
Jason Marquis is only one start removed from a 3-MONTH stint on the DL. And he did NOT look good in that first start back 6 days ago against the Dodgers (only 4 IP / 7 hits and walks / only 70 total pitches). It looks like it will take a while for him to get into any sort of reasonable form. He went 3-0 O/U to start the season... and now stands at 4-0 O/U overall. His ERA vs the D'backs in the last 3 seasons is a whopping 7.25.
ARIZONA: 4-0 O/U last 4 SATURDAY games... 11-3 O/U last 14 road games (5-11 O/U vs righties)... and 16-5 O/U when playing off a loss.
WASHINGTON: 4-1 O/U at home vs righties... 5-1 O/U off a SU win vs < .400 opponents... and 8-1 O/U after allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game.
PHIL MAXWELL
Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Diamondbacks
BIG AL
10 Units Baltimore/Tampa Under 9 TOW
10 Units Pittsburgh Pirates
9 Units LA Dodgers
8 Units Rangers/Red Sox under 9
8 Units Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
8 Units Tennessee Titans +4
Lenny Del Genio
Padres
Bears
Tony George
St Louis -1.5
Dolphins -3.5