Matt Fargo
NFLX GOY
10* Carolina
BEN BURNS
CFL CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
10* Edmonton Eskimos +6
SAM CLAYTON
2 UNITS SF GIANTS -145
Say what you will about this being a popular play, but I'll gladly pull the trigger in this situation AGAINST Daniel Hudson, a young pitcher I've followed very closely since his MLB debut in Chicago last season. Hudson has shined bright since switching over to the Senior Circuit, but he hasn't exactly beaten a potent offense. The righthander topped the Mets, Padres and Brewers (sans Braun and Hart). Not exactly the cream of the crop. I would go as far as saying Hudson hasn't had a REAL road test all season long and he's about to be thrown into the lions' den against the Giants. Albeit they were shutout yesterday in what looked like a hangover from a dayoff, San Francisco has been tearing the cover off the ball, scoring 38 runs in the previous three games. Hudson throws a very hittable ball and he pitches to contact, something the lefthanded bats of Torres, Huff, Sandoval and Ishakawa will be ready for. Plus, Buster Posey remains red hot as does Juan Uribe. Barry Zito has been a little shaky as of late, but he's been away from home cooking for a long while. The southpaw returns to the Bay Area where he's 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA, not to mention in the middle of a playoff race toward the NL Wild Card. The Giants have the revenge and motivation factors in their favor and while Barry Enright kept them down Friday, Hudson is a similar pitcher with a very similar gameplan. The San Fran sticks will wake up.
Tony George
Houston -3
Easy Pick here. REMEMBER this is Dallas 4th preseason game, not their 3rd. And to be honest Dallas has not looked all that good, but the starters will see see 1 quarter here, and Houston will show their full compliment well into the third quarter. Dallas played in the hall of fame game. Houston is playing their first home game, they are without a win the preseason to date, and will be playing more talent for a longer period of time. Does it get any easier than that for a small number of 3? I do not think so, Houston wants to win and beat big brother anytime they play, I like their chances here. Play 1 Unit on Houston.
BONUS PLAYS. Play a half unit on Jacksonville -2.5, play a half unit on Detroit -2.5. Tease Houston to +3 and Jax to +3.5 and play a half unit 2 team 6 pointer.
Paul Leiner
50* Bills +3
25* Det/Cle Over 38
Triple Threat Sports
2* Jacksonville (-) over Tampa Bay
Several factors pointing to the Jags, as phrases such as "alot at stake" and "demand a winning attitude" are coming from team leaders (Garrard, Jones-Drew) this week, as the team is 0-2 with two close losses in the preseason. Also, Bucs lost at home in Week Three last year whereas the Jags are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in Week Three of the preseason the last four years, 4-1 SU and ATS in this preseason "series" and are also playing their starters longer - into the third quarter - while the most the Bucs starting units will play is until the half.
The Asian Executive
10 dimes Game of the Month: Dallas Under 40.5
8 dimes Game of the Week: Arizona Under 38
7 dimes Game of the Week: Minnesota Over 38
Jeff Benton
20 DIME SAN DIEGO PADRES
5 DIME HOUSTON TEXANS
5 DIME SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
San Diego Padres
The Phillies are 71-57 overall, including 31-32 on the road. Prior to last night’s extra-innings win, they had lost four in a row and six of eight, and they’re handing the ball to a pitcher (Joe Blanton) who is 5-6 with a 5.32 ERA on the season, including 1-4 with a 6.55 ERA in nine road starts.
The Padres are 76-51 overall (tops in the National League), including 38-24 at home. They’ve won 13 of their last 18 games (including six of eight at Petco Park), and they’re handing the ball to a pitcher (Jon Garland) who is 13-8 with a 3.25 ERA, including 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA in 13 home starts. Garland this month is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA, as opponents are batting a collective .191 against him in August, and since the All-Star break he’s 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a .200 batting-average-against.
So why is San Diego such a cheap favorite this afternoon? Because the oddsmakers simply refuse to give this team – far and away the most profitable club in baseball this year – its proper respect. And smart bettors continue to make the oddsmakers pay for that disrespect.
Some more numbers to chew on with respect to this pitching matchup: With this being a day game, it must be noted that San Diego has been unseasonably hot this week, and the beefy Blanton is 3-3 with a 6.10 ERA in day games, while the svelte Garland is 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA in day games. And check out Blanton’s career numbers in three starts against the Padres: 13 runs (12 earned) and 23 hits allowed in 16 innings (6.75 ERA, 1.63 WHIP). He started a June 6 contest in Philly, which the Padres won 6-5 in extra innings.
Bottom line: San Diego may trail Philadelphia in terms of All-Star representatives and marquee players, but any way you want to crunch the numbers, the Padres are the better team. Throw in the fact San Diego has baseball’s top bullpen (2.82 ERA, compared to the Phillies’ 4.01 ERA) and I’ll gladly lay the cheap price with the best team in the National League.
Houston Texans
Clearly, the Dallas Cowboys aren’t putting forth much effort this preseason. Yes, their record shows they’re 2-1 SU and ATS, but one of those victories came in the Hall of Fame Game (16-7 over the Bengals), which is the biggest waste of time every year. And in last week’s 16-14 victory over the Chargers in San Diego, Dallas got outgained by 100 yards, with the offense mustering a pathetic 194 yards of total offense.
The Cowboys did finally produce an offensive touchdown last week, but it came after a turnover in the red zone. The only other time Dallas has found the end zone in three games was a 6-yard INT return for a score in the Hall of Fame Game. Overall, the Cowboys’ offense has accounted for just 34 points in three games while averaging just 251 total yards per game (68.3 rushing ypg). And Tony Romo has been far from spectacular, completing just 46.4 percent of his passes for 141 yards with one score and one pick.
Romo’s poor numbers are largely the result of the fact that he’s playing behind a patchwork offensive line. The Cowboys have been decimated by injuries to key guys up front (hence the reason the running game is netting just 2.8 yards per carry). Because of the line woes, I don’t expect Romo to play as long as he usually would in these Week 3 contests – and if he does play, I certainly doubt he’ll be dropping back to pass a lot since the Texans having a very good pass rush.
Speaking of Week 3 preseason contests, the Cowboys haven’t taken them very seriously. They’ve lost two of their last three, going 0-3 ATS. Two of those non-covers were against Houston, including a 28-16 loss back in 2007. In fact, the home team is a perfect 7-0 in this rivalry (five preseason games, two regular-season contests), with the Texans going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.
After consecutive road losses to Arizona (19-16) and New Orleans (38-20) in which the team showed very little on both sides of the ball, you can expect the Texans to come out clicking in their first home game. And there’s no doubt they’ll be playing to win, unlike Dallas, which is just trying to keep bodies healthy.
Seattle Seahawks
This number makes no sense. I know Brett Favre is going to see more action tonight than he did Sunday, when he was on the field for one series in Minnesota’s 15-10 loss to San Francisco. But if he plays more than six series – or about 1½ quarters – I’ll be shocked. For one thing, he knows this offense inside and out and only needs to play long enough to knock off the rust. For another thing, he’s without his top two WR targets in Sidney Rice (surgery this week) and Percy Harvin (ongoing migraines). And no way top RB Adrian Peterson gets more than a handful of carries.
Seattle, meanwhile, hits the road after a couple of tight preseason home games, rallying past Tennessee 20-18 in Week (as a 3½-point home chalk) and falling to the Packers 27-24 (as a 2½-point favorite) last week. So this marks Pete Carroll’s first time in hostile environment as Seattle’s head coach, and I’m very sure he’s going to treat this like a regular-season game, right down to playing his starters well into the third quarter.
Also, despite the SU and ATS results so far this August, the Seahawks have still been a preseason force since 2004, going 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS in exhibition action. During this six-plus year stretch, Seattle is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS on the road in the summer, and 9-2 ATS as an underdog.
Make no mistake: I realize that Minnesota is the superior team here. But there’s really nothing for the Vikings to gain by taking this game seriously – in fact, they’ve got a lot to lose in the form of potential injury. On the flip side, Carroll will be playing to win tonight, I guarantee you that. And the Seahawks have a ton of guys still fighting for jobs, and that includes at quarterback as veteran Matt Hasselbeck is being pushed by newcomer Charlie Whitehurst (former third-stringer for the Chargers).
Finally, the Vikings are just 3-5 in their last eight preseason home games, and Seattle has cashed in three straight Week 3 preseason tilts, the last two on the road as an underdog.
Bob Balfe
Philadelphia Phillies +120
The Phillies almost blew a great outing by Oswalt last night, but came back in extra innings which had to deflate the Padres. They now are back on top of the wildcard standings and the pressure is on the Braves to maintain their two game lead over Philly in the NL East. The Phillies have won 16 out of the last 17 when playing the Padres on the road. Look for the Phillies' bats to get back on track today. Take Philadelphia.
Detroit Lions -2.5
Detroit has a lot of young, talented players that will be starters this season. It is crucial to get these guys reps tonight against a very beatable opponent. The Lions are going to turn some heads on offense in 2010 and I believe their defense will be much improved as well. Take Detroit at home.
Minnesota Vikings -5
Seattle has a huge problem at offensive line and they will want to make sure they don’t get Hasselbeck hurt on this turf in a game that means nothing. Brett Favre will play a little bit longer tonight, but this game will be won by the Vikings defense as they should shut down the run and not allow Seattle any time to throw the ball. Take Minnesota.
ATS LOCK CLUB
12 Units Texans
5 Units Lions
4 Units Ravens
MTi Sports
4* Red Sox
3* Indians
Matt Fargo
10* Houston Astros
The Mets came away with this series opener last night with a 2-1 win. That evened the homestand for New York at 2-2 and kept it well above .500 on the season at home and that is one of the big factors that is driving this line. The problem for the Mets is winning consecutively as they have not been able to get any sort of run together. They are a dismal 4-22 in their last 26 games following a win and with the offense averaging only 2.4 rpg over its last 11 home games, there is little reason to think a win a possible here. The Houston pitching came through again yesterday and has added to the long-term run as well. The pitching staff has allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of its last 15 games, posting a 2.13 ERA over that span, and it has allowed four runs or less in 22 of its last 30 games overall. It has now been six straight games on this roadtrip where the Astros have given up two runs or fewer. The offense has been the reason not more wins have come from those great pitching performances over the long haul. While the pitching matchup may seem one-sided, it is not the case. Houston sends Brett Myers to the mound and he is having an outstanding season and remains under the radar. He has a 3.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP covering 26 starts and he has tossed nine quality outings in his last 10 starts, all of which he has allowed two runs or fewer. Overall 19 of those 26 starts have been quality performances. He has been a hard luck pitcher on the road as run support has been the issue but pitching as good as he has, it may not even matter now. The Mets go with Johan Santana and he is obviously another reason this line is as high as it is. He is having another outstanding season with a 2.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP but like most good pitchers for bad teams, the wins have not been coming. New York is only 13-14 in his 27 starts and the problem has actually been facing the poorer teams. The Mets are just 2-8 in Santana’s 10 starts against National League teams with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The Astros also fall into a solid underdog situation. Play on underdogs with a moneyline between +100 and +150 with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season but starting a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 39-18 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Houston Astros
Northcoast
4* Houston
3* Jacksonville
MTi Sports
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
In Matt Garza’s last start, he allowed only four hits in seven and two-thirds and the Rays won 3-2 in Oakland. Thy Rays haven’t won in this spot in a long time. Tampa is 0-8 since August22008 when Matt Garza starts when he had a WHIP of less than one on the road his last start.
By running the query you can see that the Rays were the favorite in six of the eight games. In Garza’s three starts in this spot this season, he has not produced a single quality start.
The Red Sox send Clay Buchholz to the hill in an effort to gain more ground in the wild card race. Buchholz has been spectacular recently, but, unlike Garza, he is a good investment in this spot. Boston is 19-0 with Buchholz when he is off a quality start, as long as he was not a 170+ favorite in that start. The SDQL text is:
starter=Clay Buchholz and s:QS and s:line>-170 and 20090819
Boston has won these 19 games by an average of a staggering 4.6 runs, with the average final score 6.7 runs to 2.1 runs.
As a team, the Red Sox are 7-0 after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks. The Rays, on the other hand, are 0-6 as a FAVORITE when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs. The Rays’ starters have zero quality starts in the six games and Tampa has lost by an average final score of 7.3 runs to 4.3 runs.
We estimate that the Red Sox have a better than 50-50 chance of winning here, which makes them a play at +130.
MTi’s FORECAST: Boston 5 TAMPA 3
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Houston -3
1 Unit Cincinnati -3
1 Unit Baltimore -4